By Matt Pappis
Tracksideview Staff Writer —-
Breeders Cup Saturday
Race 1: 11-8-6-1-7
Race 2: 1-3 – 6 -5
Race 3: 11-2-1-5
Race 4) 14 Hands Winery Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
Princess Warrior (3): Ran a big number for a first time start and was wheeled back quickly for the “Win and You’re In” race at Keeneland which may have caused her to bounce but she still ran a solid second.
Piedi Bianchi (8): She’s run over the surface twice already breaking her maiden over the course and should get a good pace to run into.
Moonshine Memories (7): She is undefeated with two wins over today’s surface and has a lot of tactical speed to make sure she’s in a good spot around the race.
Seperationofpowers (13): This was much the horse to beat for me prior to the post position draw, but being placed in the 13 hole, I won’t give her much of a shot now.
Race 5) Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
Disco Partner (1): This is the horse to beat in the field though he will likely get under bet due to his post position draw. He should be able to secure a nice position on the rail and put in one of his closing kicks.
Stormy Liberal (4): He has yet to run the 5 furlong distance and it should hit him right between the eyes; for a turf sprint there is not as much speed as you typically would see he will look to take them gate to wire.
Lady Aurelia (3): She is all class and has every right to win this race however I don’t want her at the short price we are expecting.
Race 6) Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Finleysluckycharm (9): She is the fastest in the bunch and showed a new dimension when rating and making one run in her last at Keeneland. She will be in front at the quarter pole and they will have to come get her.
Skye Diamonds (12): She has been a completely different horse since joining the new barn winning 6 of her last 8 starts and that is tough to ignore since she has two wins over the track.
Paulassilverlining (2): I have never seen as slow of a pace in a Grade I sprint as I was in the Ballerina; I think she was compromised, and you can draw a line through that race. She is a win machine and was on a 4 race win streak prior to that start.
Finest City (4): Last year’s Champ is coming back fresh to defend her title and this is when we see her best efforts. She loves this track and the one turn configuration, she is a player in a deep and competitive race.
Race 7) Filly & Mare Turf
Wuheida (5): She has kept company with some of the biggest names in European racing and is way too big a price on the morning line, don’t you just love the Breeders Cup ?
Lady Eli (9): What a filly to come back in this form from the injury she suffered; she is the one to beat and it would be great to see her go out on top.
Senga (2): If you only look at her races on firm turf it reads 2-0, she has not seen a firm going many times and will come in third off the layoff for this race.
Grand Jete (8): Has had troubled trips in her last two starts since winning her first two races in the states; make no mistake there are more than one Chad Brown horses in this race that can win.
Race 8) Twinspires Breeders Cup Sprint
Drefong (2): He is the champ and the one they have to beat. I would have liked to see him draw more of an outside post but, he is the one to beat regardless of where he’s posted.
Takaful (7): Showed a new dimension in the Vosburgh when rating right off the speed, he will need another effort as good or better than his last to win here.
Roy H (8): Has run some very big numbers and his last was a big time race, but I’m a little worried with him coming back in less than a month all of his races have been spaced out.
Race 9) Breeders Cup Mile
Suedois (8): His win in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland was very impressive and he should get some pace to run at here which makes him the pick for me.
Roly Poly (12): She has put together a nice year and she gets the firm turf that she loves to run on with pace to run at.
Ribchester (10): One of the top rated horses in the world and on his best day he’s the one to beat, but I’ve seen many big favorites go down in this race, it is a big trips race.
Midnight Storm (1): He is 5 for 7 over this turf course and should be using his inside post to his advantage to try and take it to them early.
Race 10) Sentient Jet Breeders Cup Juvenile
Bolt d’Oro (11): If you are a speed figure player and look at any type of sheet this horse is a total stand out and the most legitimate favorite on the weekend, but he will still have to run his race he is facing some horses which have room to improve.
Free Drop Billy (9): His two losses have come by a little more than a length and he is a two turn horse putting in his best effort yet in his only attempt around two turns.
Firenze Fire (3): Not sure what happened in the Hopeful but he bounced back with a winning effort in the Champagne and should keep improving.
Good Magic (6): Has put together two good efforts but is still a maiden and will have to jump up to win this race; hitting the board is a very realistic prediction.
Race 11) Longines Breeders Cup Turf
Highland Reel (3): Last year’s champion comes into the race fresh as can be and will get the firm turf he adores. If we see 5-1, I will be firing on him.
Ulysses (5): Comes out of the Arc where he got a soft turf he did not really like and should improve here, however I think Highland Reel should be the m/l favorite here.
Fanciful Angel (10): Has run two big races since coming to the states and should continue to improve under the care of Chad Brown.
Race 12) Breeders’ Cup Classic
Arrogate (1): Going into the Pacific Classic I was not convinced he was himself but after his last work I think he’s the greatest horse of our generation and is back to being himself and should go out the champ that he is.
West Coast (8): Another Baffert with major promise for next year if he continues to get better with each and every race, and he has a shot to upset the champ here.
Gun Runner (5): I believe he will be over bet and should not be the m/l favorite over Arrogate; let’s go back to March when Arrogate spotted him 15 lengths in Dubai and still ran him down with ease. If he and Arrogate are both in top form Arrogate, is the better horse.
Collected (11): We cannot deny the fact that his Pacific Classic was dazzling, but he does his best running when he’s alone on the lead and I don’t see that happening here.
Suggested Pick 5 Races 1-5
1,6,7,8,11 / 1 / 1,2,11 / 1,3,7,8,9,12,13 / 1,3,4 = $157.5
Suggested Pick 4 Races 5-8
1,3,4/ 2,4,8,9,10,11,12/ 2,5,8,9/ 2 = $42
1,4/ 2,4,8,9,10,11,12/ 2,5,9/ 2,7 = $48
Suggested Pick 4 Race 9-12
1,5,8,9,10,12,14 / 11 / 3,5,10 / 1,5,8,11= $36
1,5,8,9,10,12 / 3,9,11 / 3,5 / 1 = $15
1,5,8,9,10,12 / 3,9,11 / 3 / 1 /1,5,8,11 = $36