HANDICAPPING THE DUBAI WORLD CUP

By MacKenzie Kirker-Head
Guest Columnist —-

(Note: All Post Time are A.M. Eastern Daylight Time)

R1 – G1 Godolphin Mile – 1600m(8F) – Dirt Post Time 7:45 ET

North America – Sharp Azteca – Heavy Metal – Kafuji Take

The glorious Dubai World Cup day card opens with a hotly contested edition of the Godolphin Mile. I took North America on top, the son of Dubawi who has won his four career starts in Meydan by a combined 25 lengths. He clearly favors the dirt as he was incapable of winning in his prior five starts on the turf (and one on the all-weather). He has risen rapidly in the ranks, going from breaking his maiden in November to capturing the G3 Firebreak Stakes here in his last start on February 11th. The Godolphin Mile will be a big ask for him, but he is a horse who tends to race up front, and usually World Cup day favors the speed. Next I selected Sharp Azteca, the American-trained son of Freud who has been devilishly quick in his starts in the United States. He is undefeated at the mile distance and prepped for this race with a resounding win in the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, also on February 11th. Trainer Jorge Navarro’s only other starter ever at Meydan was X Y Jet, who was barely beaten for second in the Golden Shaheen last year. Next up I selected Heavy Metal, the bin Ghadayer trained seven-year-old gelding. Like North America and Sharp Azteca, he generally does his best running up front. He was triumphant in the G3 Burj Nahaar here a couple weeks ago and looks to give his best lifetime effort here on Saturday. Round out the field with Japanese invader Kafuji Take, who drew widest in gate 13. He was third in Japan’s most prestigious dirt race of the winter-spring season in his last start, the G1 February Stakes, with winner Gold Dream earning a spot in the Breeders’ Cup. He does his running coming from behind, and with three speedsters up front, if the track plays fairly the race may devolve and beg for a closer to come running late.

R2: PA – G1 Dubai Kahayla Classic – 2000m(10F) – Dirt Post Time 8:15 ET

1 Faucon Du Loup – 8 Af Mathmoon – 5 Tm Thunder Struck – 12 Handassa

Faucon Du Loup was victorious in his last start here, the 2200m G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R2, which was held on January 26th. He excels at longer distances and generally races in a tracking position. A Russian import, he was one of the best in his country before coming to the UAE. It seems to have taken him a few months to adjust to the new climate, but he is peaking at the right time. Af Mathmoon has been so dominant this year it is hard to select against him. He has won his last three starts with ease, and is evidently his best on the dirt. He has only ever run at this distance once before, but that was when winning this race last year by a neck. He will be quite hard to beat here. Tm Thunder Struck is my next selection, he was second to Af Mathmoon in this race last year. He has won his last two starts at Doha where he traditionally tends to race on the turf. However, he is clearly capable of getting the trip here, just a matter of if he is as good as he has been in the past (and given the G1 victory last out, I would say he is). Handassa was prize-winning a month ago in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3, and is clearly comfortable at this distance. He draws a bit outside and sits too far back to be comfortably in my top three, though he in every likelihood is capable of victory.

R3: G2 Dubai Gold Cup – 3200m(16F) – Turf Post Time 8:50 ET

12 Heartbreak City – 3 Vazirabad – 6 Quest for More – 11 Beautiful Romance

Heartbreak City ran a phenomenal race two back to land second by a head in “the race that stops a nation,” the Melbourne Cup. His owners, members of “Here for the Craic Partnership” (phenomenal name) went viral, exuberantly celebrating his runner-up effort. He is a fascinating horse, as his return to the races after that was in a hurdle race, and he is more often than not seen in hurdle events rather than on the flat. With the mount of one of the world’s best jockeys, Joao Moreira, who piloted him to his career-best second in the Melbourne Cup, he should have an excellent go of things. He will find it difficult to beat Vazirabad, who was victorious in this event last year when winning by a neck over fellow contestant Big Orange. One could argue that his form has deteriorated slightly since last year’s campaign heading into the race, but Vazirabad still ran a cracker of a prep last out when second to Beautiful Romance in the G3 Nad al Sheba. With expert Christophe Soumillon in the irons, he too should have every available chance for success. Next up I have selected Quest for More, who was last seen running a half-length behind winner and fellow Gold Cup entrant Sheikhzayedroad in the G1 QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup. Prior to that Quest for More was first past the post in the G1 Prix du Cadran at Chantilly. This is his first start of the season for trainer Roger Charlton, but he tends to run well fresh. Round out the field with Beautiful Romance who won the G3 Nad al Sheba in her last start, getting the jump on Vazirabad. I believe she may have her work cut out for her here in such a competitive field, but she does carry a little less weight than the boys.

R4 – G2 UAE Derby – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt Post Time 9:25 ET

Thunder Snow – Epicharis – Cosmo Charlie– Spirit of Valor

Thunder Snow is unquestionably the top three-year-old running in Dubai right now, romping in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas prep under Christophe Soumillon. Unfortunately for him, he drew quite wide in gate 13. Generally speaking I won’t voluntarily take a son of Helmet in a dirt race drawn in such a wide gate, but Godolphin has such a high opinion of this horse and he has the to-the-lead running style that fares well on Dubai World Cup Night. There is not much speed inside of him, though the Japanese horse sits forwardly, so you have to hope he can cut to the rail rather quickly and avoid going wide throughout. Next I have selected Epicharis, the Japanese hopeful who was a solid winner of the Hyacinth Stakes in his last start, clinching a berth to the Kentucky Derby. He is a grandson of Sunday Silence, and undefeated in his four lifetime starts. He looks to be a real solid contender and I would love to see him come to Kentucky for the Derby after this race. As disappointing as Thunder Snow’s draw is, I’m even more disappointed by that of Cosmo Charlie, a gorgeous son of Coolmore’s Stay Thirsty who was an easy winner despite the length margin of victory in his prep, the listed Al Bastakiya. Prior to that he was soundly beaten by Thunder Snow, but one must imagine that he is maturing and this distance clearly suits him more. He is another that sends to the lead, the preferable running style of the night, but he may get stuck a bit on the outside with Thunder Snow and Epicharis inside of him. I round out with Coolmore partners/Stonestreet’s Spirit of Valor, a son of War Front out of a Grindstone mare who gets his first start on the dirt here for trainer Aidan O’Brien. He was second in his last start, the G3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown. He is a half-brother to Street Life, a multiple stakes winner on the dirt who ran third in the G2 Peter Pan and fourth in the G1 Belmont during his career.

R5: G1 Al Quoz Sprint – 1200m(6F) – Turf Post Time 10:00 ET

1 Amazing Kids – 6 Ertijaal – 11 Limato – 5 Jungle Cat

This year the Al Quoz Sprint will be run at six furlongs, versus its typical five furlongs of the past 6 years, which changes the dynamics of the race a bit. Last year we saw Buffering reign supreme, and we have a highly competitive field of 12 lined up for this year’s edition. Amazing Kids is a Hong Kong raider, fourth by 2.25 lengths in his last try to the very good racehorse Peniaphobia. Hong Kong has one of the most competitive turf sprinting programs in the world, and this horse has been a very honest runner at that level. His two tries on the straight in HK have resulted in two victories. I’m looking for him to spring the upset, and the mount of Joao Moreira is all the more enticing. It will be hard to beat Shadwell’s Ertijaal, who seems to be quite dominant in the domain of Meydan’s turf sprints. His last few races have all come at 200m shorter than the Al Quoz, but he has been successful at this distance in the past. He was second in this race last year by three-quarters of a length. Limato returns to the races off a layoff, his last start being a disappointing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He’s a very competitive horse at the Group 1 level, and the Al Quoz Sprint’s slight extension in distance will help him here, as he has been in the winners’ circle six of eight tries at this distance, with two runner-up efforts. Last year he took the G1 Prix de la Foret as well as the G1 July Cup, so we know when he is on form he is a very serious racehorse. I round out the field with Jungle Cat, who always shows up at Meydan, despite the occasional lack-luster starts in Europe. He had a nice prep into this race in a conditions event a few weeks ago, and he should put forth a solid effort here.

R6: G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen – 1200m(6f) – Dirt Post Time 10:35 ET

10 Not Listenin’tome – 14 Mind Your Biscuits – 2 Morwaji – 1 Stallwalkin’ Dude

Tough race. The UAE dirt sprint ranks have been dreadful this year, so I had to look abroad for a winner. I selected Not Listenin’tome, the Hong Kong horse, who is 20-1 on United States morning line odds. He definitely has his work cut out for him as he has never started on the dirt before and draws wide, but if he takes to it he could be sitting pretty at a big price. I chose him over USA-based Mind Your Biscuits, who heads into the race a little over-hyped, in my humble opinion, especially given the draw he received – furthest outside in barrier 14. Morwaji is the next pick, he runs on the front end and as I have mentioned, there is often a speed bias on World Cup night. Not an incredibly talented horse but he has drawn better than any of the invaders on the inside. Round out with Stallwalkin’ Dude who has the rail for trainer David Jacobson. A relatively consistent graded performer in the United States, he is likely better than much of the field, but I question his ability to adapt to the UAE. PS- If Reynaldo beats me, I will be so angry at myself because he ALWAYS does when I refuse to select him.

R7: G1 Dubai Turf – 1800m(9F) – Turf Post Time 11:30 ET

1 Ribchester – 4 Decorated Knight – 2 Zarak – 9 Vivlos

I took Godolphin’s Ribchester on top here. He comes in off a layoff, last seen in October finishing second to super-horse Minding in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Prior to that he was a winner of the G1 Jacques le Marois at Deauville. He’s never run beyond a mile but the extra furlong shouldn’t hurt. Next up is Decorated Knight, a son of Galileo who won the G1 Jebel Hatta here a few weeks ago over the distance. Clearly takes to Meydan’s surface for trainer Roger Charlton. Illustrious Arc winner Zarkava’s son, Zarak, is my next choice. The Dubawi colt won the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes here in February under a confident ride by Christophe Soumillon. This has been the target for the colt, and he will likely be running in the top three. Round out with the Japanese filly Vivlos, who was fifth beaten by two lengths in the G2 Nakayama Kinen in February. She is a Group 1 winner, granted against three-year-old fillies last season, and she will be in here at big price.

R8: G1 – Longines Dubai Sheema Classic – 2410m(10F) – Turf Post Time 12:05 ET

3 Highland Reel – 7 Postponed – 2 Jack Hobbs – 5 Prize Money

Highland Reel looks to benefit from a lack of pace in this race. He is an incredibly talented world traveler, though he could only manage fourth in this race last year. He is following the same route he took last year when he was victorious in the G1 Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin, though this year he was beaten in the final stages of the race to land second. He dances every dance in every country he travels to and there is no reason to doubt that he will be on his A game for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore this weekend. Postponed had a difficult race in his prep, the G2 Dubai City of Gold, when he was mercilessly boxed in until the final strides of the race to land second as a very heavy favorite. He won this race last year, though he headed into it on a stronger campaign than he does this year. He seems to be a vulnerable favorite in such a strong renewal of the race. Next up I chose Jack Hobbs, owned by Godolphin and partners. He ran third in the G1 QIPCO Champion Stakes in his last start, behind the incredibly talented duo of Almanzor and Found. He takes well to the distance, with two wins and a third from four starts, including of course a win in the G1 Irish Derby. Lightly raced and rather fragile, he runs well fresh and should put in a big effort here. Round out with Prize Money, who beat Postponed in the prep. This level of competition will be much more difficult to overcome, and it is unlikely that the favorite will face such traffic issues as he did last time.

R9: G1 Dubai World Cup – 2000m(10F) – Dirt Post Time 12:45 ET

9 Arrogate – 5 Gun Runner – 12 Hoppertunity – 14 Mubtaahij

Impossible to go against Arrogate, who is the highest ranked horse to ever race in Dubai at 134, not to mention currently ranked the best in the world. The only way he loses is if Mike Smith jumps off him before the wire. Gun Runner is who I give the best runner-up chances to. Unfortunately he had to miss the G1 Pegasus World Cup while stuck in EHV-1 quarantine with the rest of the horses at Fair Grounds. Gun Runner was most recently a 5.75 length winner of the G3 Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park. He ended last year on a high note, taking the G1 Clark Handicap with ease. He’s an incredibly talented horse, and although this may be further than his ideal distance, it likely won’t matter. His last two races have been won on the lead, and if Meydan plays as it usually does, he will be the biggest threat to Arrogate. Hoppertunity drew rather wide in gate 12, but he is a hard-knocking horse who ran well here last year when third in the Dubai World Cup. He has been training well heading into the race, and though he may not be Baffert’s big dog, he is a very honest horse. Lastly I chose Mubtaahij, who was unfortunate when drawing barrier 14. Returned to Mike de Kock’s care after a stint in the United States with Kiaran McLaughlin, he ran second for the South African in the Curlin Handicap. Second off the layoff should play well for him, if it weren’t for that draw.

Follow MacKenzie on Twitter @mackenziejanek