Analyses of Kentucky Derby Contenders… Pre-Draw

By Bob Hill, staff writer
TracksideView,net —-

Post positions won’t be drawn until next week so much can change relative to a handicapper’s opinion of Kentucky Derby hopefuls. That said, it is never too early to form some first impressions of the known entries. Changes to the field are still possible, especially given the knowledge that Chad Brown is still weighing his options with Early Voting. That decision is quite important to likely pace scenarios since Early Voting would be the likely pacesetter, if entered.

Opinions on the top 21 points-earners follow. This writer’s views are influenced by recent trends in Derby finishes related to race shape (pace). Those ideas are offered in a companion article located on this website. It may add clarity to some commentary in this article.

The 21 horses are listed in the order of their earned qualifying points.

Epicenter – trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Joel Rosario. Sire: Not This Way. Dam: Silent Candy. Dam Sire: Candy Ride. Winner of the G2 Risen Star and the G2 Louisiana Derby. Given the success of Fair Grounds runners in last year’s Derby, it’s not unreasonable to rate Epicenter’s competition as strong. This colt fits the style profile of recent Derby winners, and his speed figures do as well. He will be first or second in the betting on Derby Day. Bred top and bottom to win a Classic. A win in the Run for the Roses has eluded his HOF trainer. Maybe this year! Win Contender

Zandon – trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz. Sire: Upstart. Dam: Memories Prevail. Dam Sire: Creative Cause. Winner of the G1 Bluegrass. Another regally bred colt, this colt represents a great chance for top grass trainer to win the Derby. He’s a deep closer, so jockey Ortiz has to avoid trouble and get him in the right place to unleash his closing kick. If the pace shape trend of early speed winners is broken this year, he’s one of two with best chance to do it. Win Contender

White Abarrio – trained by Safie Joseph, Jr. Sire: Race Day. Dam: Catching Diamonds. Dam Sire: Into Mischief. Another who is bred to win at Classic distances, he has impressed in every race he’s run. His trainer has emerged as a top connection in big races, so taking this colt lightly would be a mistake. He fits the profile of recent Derby winners. He’ll have to run faster than he ever has to win this race, but I’d bet his effort is very honest. Exotics Player (all positions)

Mo Donegal – trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz. Sire: Uncle Mo. Dam: Callingmissbrown. Dam Sire: Pulpit. This Pletcher trainee is the second deep closer I give a chance to buck the trend of pace-pressers winning the Derby. I suspect his connections hope he doesn’t have to pass 18 or 19 horses, so I won’t be surprised to see him more forwardly placed than he was in the Wood. His pedigree is solid. The Wood Memorial has not been a key race for Derby contenders in recent years, and his best moments have come at Aqueduct. Win Contender

Tiz The Bomb – trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez, Jr. Sire: Hit It A Bomb. Dam: Tiz the Key: Dam Sire: Tiznow. The big question about this guy has to do with his ability to run on grass. It is well known that his connections plan to race him on grass against tough Euro competition. His grand sire War Front produced The Factor and his great grand sire Danzig fathered Hard Spun. Both were very good on dirt. His connections are giving him every chance to prove he can be real good on dirt, despite his only having won a maiden race on that surface. He definitely will offer betting value. If you like him, he’s an Exotics Player. If not, you should Toss. (I’m going to use him).

Cyberknife – trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux. Sire: Gun Runner. Dam: Awesome Flower. Dam Sire: Flower Alley.
There’s been a ton of buzz about his great workouts at Churchill Downs as he preps for the Derby. He was the upset winner in the G1 Arkansas Derby, a race many think was weaker this year than in the recent past. His speed figure suggest he will have to be much better than ever before to claim one of the top spots. Exotics Player (bottom)

Crown Pride – trained by Koichi Shintani and ridden by Christophe Lemaire. Sire: Reach the Crown. Dam: Emmy’s Pride. Dam Sire: King Kamehameha. Winner of the UAE Derby. His win at Medan could have been timed with a sundial. The track was deep and times were slow all day that day, so if you can put those slow times aside and bank on his being another Japanese-bred horse to impact American racing this is the better option of the two coming out of that prep race. For me, he will be a Toss.

Taiba – trained by Tim Yakteen and ridden by Mike Smith. Sire: Gun Runner. Dam: Needmore Flattery. Dam Sire: Flatter. Everyone knows that Yakteen took over training this colt from Bob Baffert. If he wins the Derby, he will be the first ever to do so in his third lifetime start. He was scintillating in his maiden win and in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. When I’m asked my opinion of this horse, I answer truthfully, “I have no clue.” Because of his connection to Baffert he will take a lot of money. Even the people who don’t like his chances because of his lack of racing experience probably will still play him as a Win Contender on some tickets. I will.

Simplification – trained by Antonio Sano and ridden by Jose Ortiz. Sire: Not This Time. Dam: Simply Confection. Dam Sire: Candy Ride. Winner of the Fountain of Youth. Third in the Florida Derby as the beaten favorite. His early 2022 races at Gulfstream were very good. His Florida Derby was a mixed bag. Needs to run faster than ever before to win the Derby. Has a chance to be one of the wise guy horses on Derby Day so keep an eye on his odds. Exotics Player

Smile Happy – trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Corey Lanerie. Sire: Runhappy. Dam: Pleasant Smile. Dam Sire: Pleasant Tap. Entered 2022 as the number one Derby hopeful. His races produced second place finishes in both the G2 Louisiana Derby and the G1 Blue Grass. He lost to the two likely post-time favorites in those races. He may offer very good value on Derby Day, and if his odds float up even a little he will enter long shot territory. At the very least he is an Exotics Player in all positions, and he may become the most attractive win bet option on the board.

Classic Causeway – trained by Brain Lynch and ridden by Julien Leperoux. Sire: Giants Causeway. Dam: Private World. Dam. Thunder Gulch. Winner of G2 Tampa Bay Derby. After his dismal showing as the favorite in the Florida Derby his connections withdrew his name from Derby consideration. Three weeks later they changed their minds. His best races are many lengths short of the top ones in this field. I love the horse and the connections, but for me he is a Toss.

Tawny Port – trained by Brad Cox with his rider yet unnamed. Sire: Pioneer of the Nile. Dam: Livi McKenzie. Dam Sire: Macho Uno. Winner of G3 Lexington. Gained entry to the Derby with a second on synthetics in the Jack Ruby Stakes and that win in the Lexington. His best races have been on artificial surfaces, but his Risen Star was not a total bust. His late speed figures suggest that others are more likely to be there at the end of the race. Still considering for the bottom exotics but likely a Toss.

Barber Road – trained by John Ortiz and ridden by Reylu Gutiererez. Sire: Race Day. Dam: Encounter. Dam Sire: Southern Image. Minor awards in the Oaklawn prep races allowed him to accumulate the points to qualify for the Derby. As with any deep closer he needs a clean trip and some racing luck to hit the board. Late pace numbers of others in this field suggest that they will get up before he does. My guess is that his long odds will prompt trifecta and superfecta players to use him underneath. He’s a borderline Toss for me, but I may play him on my longest exotics ticket.

Un Ojo – trained by Ricky Courville and ridden by Ramon Vazquez. Sire: Loaban. Dam: Risk A Chance. Dam Sire: A.P. Indy. Winner of the G2 Rebel at odds of 70-1. Aptly named “One Eye” due to an accident when he was young. Had a terrible adventure in the Arkansas Derby, finishing eighth. Even if we throw that race out, his speed figures suggest he will be overmatched. Just don’t know how his having one eye will work in the field of 20. As much as I love his story, I will Toss.

Early Voting – trained by Chad Brown with his rider not yet named. Sire: Gun Runner. Dam: Amour D’Ete. Dam Sire: Tiznow. Second in Wood Memorial when caught at the wire by Mo Donegal. Chad Brown has kept him in New York and said this week that he is training for the Preakness. Brown has not closed the door completely on a Derby entry, but signs point elsewhere. He is the speed of the speed in this field if he goes, and that makes him dangerous. The fact that he was caught at a distance a furlong shorter than the Derby gives reason for pause. If he goes, he will be an Exotics play for me.

Messier – trained by Tim Yakteen and ridden by John Velasquez. Sire: Empire Maker. Dam: Checkered Past. Dam Sire: Smart Strike. Runner-up in the G1 Santa Anita. No horse would benefit more from the defection of Early Voting than this guy. I suspect his connections hope he can take the lead and take them all the way like he did in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He looks a lot to me like other Baffert trainees that have won the Derby. Same ownership as Medina Spirit. Win Contender and my top pick if Early Voting drops out.

Zozos – trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Manny Franco. Sire. Munnings. Dam: Papa’s Forest. Dam Sire: Forestry. Runner-up in Louisiana Derby. Has raced only three times, so lack of experience is a concern. He definitely should be part of the pace scenario along with several others whose odds will be much shorter. If you can get past the experience factor, you could see him as a long shot Exotics Player.

Summer Is Tomorrow – trained by Brehat Seemar and ridden by Mickael Barzalona. Sire: Summer Front. Dam: Always Tomorrow. Dam Sire: Badge of Silver. He’s been a sprinter up until his run in the UAE Derby. Could he be the sprinter that blows up a Derby? Toss

Charge It – trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez. Sire: Tapit. Dam: I’ll Take Charge. Dam Sire: Indian Charlie. 2nd in Florida Derby. Has shown good tactical speed, but others appear to be faster. Has raced only three times. His connections are strong so he will take some money, and many will see him as an Exotics Player. He’s on the borderline for me.

Happy Jack – trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Sire: Oxbow. Dam: I’ll Take Charge. Dam Sire: Has lost by a combined 49 lengths in three races since his maiden win. Toss

Pioneer of Medina – trained by Todd Pletcher with no jockey named yet. Sire: Pioneer of the Nile. Dam: Lights of Medina. Dam Sire: Eskendereya. Needs one defection to get in the gate. He finished a gritty third in the Louisiana Derby. He’s the type of horse out of the Pletcher barn to surprise people. Bottom of the Exotics, if in.