How Big Should My Pick 4 Ticket Be at the Breeders Cup

By Bob Hill, TSV staff writer —-

Like many horseplayers today, this writer likes to play the multi-race Pick 4 and Pick 5 opportunities. These types of wagers have a history of large payouts on days like those when the Breeders’ Cup and Kentucky Derby are contested. As with most things in life, big rewards require larger investments than one typically makes on a normal day. The group with which I pool information and resources to play on these days often struggles with the question of how deep we should go (how much to spend). We are pulled between our daily habits of smaller bets and the knowledge that these big days are different.

In an attempt to provide some data to this annual question, an examination of the 20-year history of the late pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Day seemed like a good idea. The Pick 5 has only been around as a betting option at the BC for the past several years, so the bigger data set of the Pick 4 was used for this study. The conclusions, however, are applicable to the P5 wager as well.

Here are some of the raw data, followed by an analysis of the meaning of the numbers. All payouts are calculated on $.50 plays.

The range of payouts in the late P4 between 2002 and 2021 is huge. At the low end, the payout was a mere $158 in 2018 (Accelerate). At the opposite end of the spectrum, the 2011 P4 paid a whopping $46,812 (Drosselmeyer).

Over the 20-year period the adjusted average (mean) of the payouts is $5,362. The median payout, which is the measure most statisticians would prefer, was $4,209. The average win bet on the Classic winner is $16.60 (7-1), but again the median is probably a more accurate indicator of the average win bet payout of the Classic winner at $10.70 (4-1)

In 14 od the 20 years the payout was more than $1,000. In 11 of the 20 years (55%) the payout was more than $3,800. Only three times have the payouts been less than $400.

The key to payouts over $3,800 was the presence of at least one bombs away upset winner in the P4 sequence, but those upsets occurred across a spectrum of Legs 1-4. The odds of the BC winner are not strongly correlated to the amount of the P4 payout (value can be in that leg or one of the other three legs).

Eight BC Classic winners have gone off at odds between 7-5 and 3-1. The range of Pick 4 payouts for those horses is $158 (Accelerate – 2018) to $11,698 ( Ghostzapper – 2004). Seven Classic winners have gone off at odds between 4-1 and 7-1. The range of payouts for their respective P4 wagers is $381 (Mucho Macho Man – 2013) to $24,052 (Invasor – 2006). Four BC winners have gone off at odds of 8-1 to 15-1. Their P4 payouts range from $1,373 (Raven’s Pass – 2008) and $46,812 (Drosselmeyer – 2011). Volponi, at odds of 39-1, completed a P4 that paid $8,175 in 2002.

These data support the following conclusions. Add to the list if if see other trends worth noting.

Multi-race wagers on these days offer the chance for a big score. If you like them, play them!

Finding one or more bombs is essential to cashing a $4,000+ ticket. That long shot can come in any leg of the sequence and is more likely than not going to occur in Legs 1-3.

Beating a heavy favorite in any of the legs of the P4 will likely produce a win over a $1,000. Look for vulnerable short-odds horses you think you can beat.

Because the vast majority of these P4 payouts are greater than $400, small players are encouraged to up their antes on these days, if possible. Even relatively chalky outcomes will allow you to get your money back.

Good luck this weekend!