149th Kentucky Derby Picks

Kentucky Derby Picks
by Bob Hill, TSV Staff Writer

A prominent national handicapper observed this week that picking one horse to win the Kentucky Derby is a gnarly, near-impossible task. For that reason, he advises playing exactas and trifectas or maybe a superfecta if your bankroll permits. Thinking along those lines, I offer my evaluation of this field.

There are four entries that show up on most lists as possible win candidates: Forte (15), Tapit Trice (5), Angel of Empire (14), and Derma Sotogake (17). Different people fade different ones from this group for a variety of reasons. Surprisingly, many are fading Forte on the notion that his form is pretty much unchanged since his championship two-year-old campaign. I have these four rated in the following order.14-5-15-17.

With the scratch of Practical Move and Lord Miles on Thursday, a couple in my second tier look a little more attractive now. I have liked Two Phil’s (3) for weeks, and I give him a shot just outside that top group. I’ve also become more convinced that Kingbarns (6) win in the Louisiana Derby was far better than I first thought. Yes, the early fractions were slow, but he was absolutely flying the final three-sixteenths. Verifying (2) and Mage (8) pose a danger, and improvement is always possible. The ones in this group surely can fill any of the slots on a vertical wager ticket .

Longer odds horses that I will include are Hit Show (1), Confidence Game (4), Reincarnate (7), Skinner (9), Disarm (11), and Rocket Can (18). I am anxious to play Skinner and Disarm at long odds in the exacta under my top horses, including as high as second place. The late entry from the Dale Romans barn, Cyclone Mischief (21), fits here as well.

The ones I will leave off my tickets include Jace’s Road (12), Sun Thunder (13), Raise Cain (16), Lord Miles (19) and Continuar (20).

If Mandarin Hero (22) draws into the field I would put him in my second tier. King Russell (23) would be a toss for me.

There you have it. On the radio show on Saturday morning I’ll name Two Phil’s (3) and Angel of Empire (14) as my win bet candidates if I just can’t resist the temptation to go there. I’ll speak favorable of Kingsbarns (6) as well, and my bomb horse will be Reincarnate (7).

Good luck to all.

*** You can catch Bob and Senior Writer Ron Correll’s Derby breakdown on 1450 Sports Rdio out of SPRINGFIELD, Il. or on it’s podcasts.