Handicapping: An Unusual Pair of Races; The G1 Saudi Cup and the G2 Rebel Stakes

Bob Hill
TSV Staff Writer —-

Saudi World Cup – 1-1/8 miles G1

In what is a strange combination of races this week we take on the Saudi Cup and the Rebel Stakes. The first, the richest race in the world, is contested at 1-1/8 miles in Riyadh. Winners on threecontinents make up this interesting field that presents several betting opportunities. It is important to note that in Saudi Arabia the program numbers do not correspond to post position, so be sure you understand the betting platform you are using when making a wager.

This race is loaded with extremely successful runners who possess speed and inclination to be forwardly placed. The pace projection for the race suggests it will be fast early. White Abarrio (14 – post position 1)has proven that he can win under such conditions. It is a legitimate question to ask if his post position I a negative since a great deal of speed is drawn outside him. Derma Sotogake ( – post position 13) narrowly lost to White Abarrio in the BC Classic, and many believe he can and will win this race.

National Treasure (9 -post position 7) surprised some when he won the Pegasus last month. He most assuredly will be part of the pace scenario for Bob Baffert. The Japanese six-year-old Lemon Pop (7 –
post 3) has won nine races at 8 furlongs or less. This son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Giant’s Causeway mare defies the logic of pedigree by being a $ $3-million winning dirt sprinter. He raced once at 9 furlongs, winning a G1 in his native Japan.

Isolate (6 – post 2) has been in the exacta in 10 of 12 lifetime races. His connections moved him to the UAE last year where has won two G2 races at the distance of 1 mile.

Defunded (3 – post 9) was a multiple G1 winner for Bob Baffert prior to being sold to Saudi owners last fall. This is his first race for his new connections.

Two closers that should have a significant shot at winning or hitting the board are Ushba Tesoro (13 – post 11) and Senor Buscador 12 – post 4). It is hard to imagine that the race will not set up for theseconfirmed closers. Ushba Tesoro is the 4-1 second choice in the race, as he was in the BC Classic last fall. The Senor offers value at 12-1.

Saudi Crown (11 – post 5) is the other American entry that will attract attention and money. Now foru-years-old, this Cox trainee will hope to fare better than he did in the BC Classic last fall. He comes in off an impressive win at Fair Grounds last month. If you like him, you have to think he can outrun several in here that will not go way as easily as the competition in that last race.

There’s so many to choose from in here. I admit to being sentimentally attached to White Abarrio because I know one of his owners. I’ll pick him here, but I think both Derma Sotogake , Ushba Tesoro, and Lemon Pop all pose daunting threats.

Picks: 14-4-13-9-7-12

Rebel Stakes – 1-1/16 miles G2

If you believe that Timberlake’s (7) two-year-old form will transfer to his first race as a three-year-old you can stop reading and head to the betting window to take short odds on him. If not, here a couple of things to consider.

Carbone (1) won twice impressively for Steve Asmussen as a two-year-old before bombing in the G3 Southwest on s sloppy track three weeks ago. His wins came on the lead so I expect that approach to be the plan. If that last race is one you can draw a line through, he will compete here. His problem will be that there is other speed drawn to his outside that could make the early going quite hot and compromising.

Dimatic (6) is the Asmussen entry that I find more appealing. He possesses enough speed to stay mid-pack, and his closing kick in his last two races produced good results, including his maiden breaking win. He has progressed steadily from race to race (a did his daddy Gunrunner). Another step forward puts in the mix, and if Timberlake falters he may be a contender.

Just Steel (11) is the second choice of the odds maker at 7-2. As with many trained by Lukas, he has gotten to race his way into form. He was second last out to Mystic Dan, but he was beaten 8 lengths. I
expect that he’ll be in the mix.

Time for Truth (13) is drawn in the right spot – far outside. He’s the speed of the speed, having won twice sprinting. The truth it is time for is finding out how far he can carry that speed. I doubt he’s a classic distance horse, but the Rebel is among the shortest of the two-turn Derby preps. At 15-1, he’s a long shot play.

Picks: 7-6-11-13-1