View from the Grandstand: Betting the Kentucky Derby

By Bob Hill, TSV writer —-

Casual fans and serious players alike join ranks on Kentucky Derby Day to make the handle enormous, with the allure of lottery-like payouts. The attractive bet for casual players often is a win bet on moderate to long odds runners. More serious players load up on the multi-horse and multi-race betting options that most often require skill, luck,
and a big bankroll. Here are some thoughts designed to help either type of bettor. Good luck to all.

The Favorites

Fierceness (17) and Sierra Leone (2) are the two colts in this race that are seen as the low-odds favorites to win the 150th Kentucky Derby. Neither is a sure thing because this is a game of chance with ever-present chaos and randomness. One possible outcome of the race is that these two battle to the wire and launch a rivalry to match others that have come before. Another is that one will excel and the other will not, and yet another is that neither will be good enough on this day to win.

A win bet on either of these horses will yield a big payoff only with a huge initial investment. If you have a strong opinion and a deep bankroll you can take this route. A second way to get a big payout is to hope a longshot finishes second and/or third and produces a profitable exacta or trifecta. This approach has produced some big Derby payouts in the past, but it requires a horse off at odds of 20-1 or higher to finish second and or third. If there is one in this field that fits that mold for you, the xacta/trifecta bet may be your ticket.

The Horses That Just Need Small Improvement

Catching Freedom (4), Just A Touch (8), and Forever Young (11) are the three that fit this category. Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby and has beaten and competed against top runners. Just A Touch is a lightly raced colt that many believe could be as good as his Triple Crown winning sire Justify. Forever Young is a Japanese based runner who is undefeated. We just Don’t know how good his competition has been. The morning line odds on this trio is in the 8-1 to 10-1 category. Those probably will change some, but not significantly, by post time. In horseracing, a win bet in this range is a great score.

If you really like one of these horses to win, an exacta bet with him keyed over others besides the favorites will produce a very nice return. You can bet the favorites in second place on such a ticket in a move that will minimally serve as a saver bet (get your money back).

Longer Odds Horses That at Least Some Handicappers Think Could Win or Hit the Board

If your approach is to have a big score on a single win bet this is the category from which you should choose your winner. The list is built on a combination of my opinions and those of other handicappers.

Some in this group are good plays in second through fifth places (in the exotics). If your playing multi-horse tickets (exacta, trifecta, superfecta, Hi-5) the exotics players are for you.

Dornoch (1) has had some good moments and some lesser moments. He will have to race to the lead to have a chance. My guess is that his odds may go higher than his 20-1 morning line odds.

Mystic Dan (3) ran a very big race in the Southwest Stakes, but that win happened in the slop. His next start on a fast track was not nearly so good. Many see him as a stronger play if the going is wet. His 20-1 morning line odds will go up if it’s dry and down if it’s wet. Exotics player.

Just Steel (6) is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, one of the sport’s all-time best. Now in his upper 80’s, he still trains every day, and he still attracts good owners and good horses. His horses are always dangerous, regardless of their records which can look sub-par on paper. Definite exotics player.

Honor Marie (7) has become a local hero in Kentucky. There are many in his corner going into this Derby, so his 20-1 ML may come down a bit. You could do worse that Honor Marie if you taking a flyer on a long-odds winner. Definite exotics player.

Track Phantom (12) was a top contender prior to his last two races. In both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby he made the lead but faded at the end – not a good pattern for a Derby hopeful. Some still like him more than I do. Watch his odds to see what others think.

West Saratoga (13) is 50-1 on the morning line. I like him better (not saying much) than any of the other 50-1 shots so he makes the list. Exotics, too.

Endlessly (14) is really intriguing to me. He started his career as a stakes-winning turf horse. His connections ran him on the synthetic Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields where he won. He then won on that same surface at Turfway Park in the Jack Ruby Stakes. He has never run on grass. He might like it and get better. He might hate it and be done after a half-mile. No one knows. Top runners from the Jack Ruby Stakes have finished first (Rich Strike) and second (Two Phil’s) in the past two Run for the Roses. Definite exotics player.

Domestic Product (15) is a puzzler. He’ll be ridden by the winningest jockey in the sport. He has not raced for over two months. He has not raced in any of the major final prep races. I will probably fade to a toss, but others still like him based on top jockey and trainer.

Stronghold (18) won both the Sunland Derby and the Santa Anita Derby. He’s the lone West Coast entry this year. By the numbers he’s a toss, but some like him to compete.

The Ones to Toss

Look, I tossed Rich Strike, just like 95% of the bettors two years ago. Once in a while one from this category can win, but it typically takes a pace meltdown of epic proportions to cause it to occur. It’s hard to predict that occurrence. That why horses like Rich Strike and Giacomo pay 83-1 or 50-1. With that said, one still has to toss some or the betting is impossible.

Catalytic (3) finished second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Someone had to.

T.O. Password (10) has raced only twice in Japan against unknown company.

Grand Mo the First (16) just looks to be outclassed, although he has run on for third place in several prep races. That alone might be a reason to go exotics with him.

Society Man (20) was second in the Wood Memorial, a race I don’t hold in high regard. He does get a good jockey. Low exotics on your longest ticket.

Epic Ride (21) is here due to the scratch of Encino. Low exotics is his limit if you’re guessing or playing lotto.