View from the Grandstand: Santa Anita Derby Selections

By Bob Hill
TSV Feature Writer —-

Santa Anita Derby Selections

Santa Anita (G1) 1-1/8 miles on main track

The importance of this race is hard to figure, given that only five
horses are entered. Most believe that the winner of the race will
gain favoritism in the Kentucky Derby four weeks from now, and three
of the five at one time or the other have been favored in the futures
pool.

1 – Journalism (6-5): His convincing victory in the Grade 2 San
Felipe stands at the top of pre-Derby performances this year. A son
of Curlin out of the Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, he certainly has the
pedigree to justify the confidence of his connections. Jockey Umberto
Rispoli returns for trainer Michael McCarthy. His preferred running
style is to press the pace before unleashing a powerful closing kick.
He’s first on my list of Derby hopefuls.

2 – Citizen Bull (9-5): This son of Into Mischief won the BC Juvenile
last fall on his way to the Eclipse Award for the top two-year-old.
In his only start as a three-year-old he was a convincing winner,
beating stablemates from the Bob Baffert barn. Heretofore, Citizen
Bull has gone right to the lead on his way to gate-to-wire victories.
He has a stablemate in this race capable of setting the pace, so we at
least have to consider that Baffert experiments in this race. Citizen
Bull already has the points to make the Derby field.

The point totals at 75% of the full allocation for this race because
the field size is five (75 – 37.5 – 18-75 – 11.25 – 7.5) . Another
defection would reduce the allocation to 50%. Most see Westwood as
having no impact on the running of the race.

4 – Barnes (3-1): The second Baffert entry, he’s the most interesting
horse in the race. His owners paid $3.2 million for him. He posted
great figures when running second to Journalism in the G2 San Felipe.
Rumors persist that his recent works have been average at best. He’s
behind the proverbial eight ball because he needs a top two finish
make the Derby field. I do not see a scenario where he wins. He
could finish second to Journalism if Baffert keeps Citizen Bull off
the pace and that one does not relish a stalking trip.

5 – Baeza (6-1): His chances for making the Derby field seem like a
tough assignment because of the strength of this small field. He’s
the very talented son of McKinzie, and is also trained by John
Shirreffs. He’s shown steady improvement on his way to breaking his
maiden on his third try. My guess is the connections are shooting for
the Preakness. He can gain valuable experience here without winning.

Will be hard to make money betting this race.

Selections: 1-4-2-5-3