Handicapping the Kentucky Derby; Full-Card Selections

By Matt Pappis
Tracksideview Staff Writer —-

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Post Time: (10:30)/ 9:30/ 8:30/ 7:30

Race 1: 3-2-6-5
Race 2: 6-7-5
Race 3: 6-5-2
Race 4: 5-9-12-2-3-4
Race 5: 6-9-4-1

Race 6) Grade I Humana Distaff

Skye Diamonds (4): mare is the best when she has some speed to run at and she did not get that last time but it’ll will here; third off the layoff, she is primed for a big effort.

Lewis Bay (5): Loved the way Irad Ortiz rode her in the Madison taking back and making one sustained run; with all the pace singed on here that is the style that will likely win this race.

Ivy Bell (3): Made the first race under Pletcher a very impressive winning one and will be in the mix here with another step forward.

American Gal (8): Was so game in the Grade I Madison only losing by a neck off a 10 month layoff she is one to consider here however coming back on less than a month’s rest I’m concerned she will bounce off that effort.

Race 7) Grade II Distaff Turf Mile

La Coronel (11): She has always been better at the mile and today’s cutback should be to her liking; with the lack of speed she will have a tactical advantage here. The horses she lost to in her last race were very classy and she will get some class relief; they have to bet her today.

On Leave (9): Was left with too much to do in her last over a Gulfstream course that was not kind to horses coming from off the pace that day.

Res Ipsa (7): Has shown to be tactical so I’m unsure why she was so far back in the Honey Fox, she will be second off the layoff for connections who point to this meet and this day specifically.

Race 8) Grade II Churchill Downs Sprint

Awesome Slew (10): He ran second in this race a year ago and if he chooses to go here over Friday’s race, he is once again live and should receive those solid fractions in front of him to make a dent late.

Imperial Hint (3): Very fast horse who will be looking to take them gate to wire, there is other pace presence in here but we will see if they are fast enough to keep up early or late.

Whitmore (1): Seems to have regained his form since returning from the Breeders’ Cup and will be in good position to stalk Imperial Hint and make one run coming for home.

Race 9) Grade II American Turf

Tigers Rule (7): Had a disastrous trip in the Transylvania Stakes and deserves another chance in this spot at what should be a square price.

Maraud (10): Had absolutely nothing in the Transylvania but has been too constant not to give another chance as being in the one hole that day might have taken its toll.

River Boyne (6): Since breaking his maiden he has improved in each race capturing The Pasadena very impressively in his last; he will now take on the east coast turf talent.

Rushing fall (12): Superstar filly is one of a few cross entered for both days, if she runs in this race she deserves a look at a better price then she’ll be Friday.

Race 10) Grade III Pat Day Mile

Sporting Chance (11): Has always been more of a one turn horse and I am happy to see him pass up on the Derby with the chance to run in a race he can win.

Restoring Hope (12): Will be better suited as a one turn horse; takes the blinks off and turns back for Bob and Mike.

Madison’s Luna (7): He could be any kind of freak after his last race which was visually impressive, he’s one to watch going forward.

National Flag (1): Showed a new dimension when being able to come from off the pace last out, love to see Pletcher stick with Prat in this spot.

Mask (8): Was once talked about as a legitimate Derby contender before getting hurt, this is the first step towards something bigger down the line.

Race 11) Grade I Turf Classic

Beach Patrol (10): If he is ready to run his best race off the layoff which he typically does, then he is going to be VERY difficult to beat today and one of the more likely winners on the card.

Synchrony (7): Has really turned the corner after his break this summer and fall with another step forward he is a major player.

Yoshida (9): The jockey change to Jose Ortiz was needed I personally think he is a perfect fit for this horse.

Race 12) Grade I Kentucky Derby

Audible (5): He has improved with each and every start and comes into the race with the patterns of many of the past winners. With his inside draw he should secure a spot on the rail around the first turn and start picking off horses turning for home.

Bolt d’ Oro (11): In the SA Derby he regressed a little off his big effort in the San Felipe which is ok with me and had me believing he will peak on Derby Day. This race will give him a pace to run at which he did not have in the SA Derby.

Justify (7): The monster of the race making his 4th start in the Derby and trying to break the Apollo curse. While he does look like a monster he will have to answer many questions in the Derby but must be used on all tickets.

Vino Rosso (18): Took a giant step forward in the Wood Memorial and will have to do so again here, however he has made a great impression on the track in the weeks leading up to the Derby.

Mendelssohn (14): Will try to be the first European based horse to win the Derby but he is different, he has the pedigree. Watch to see how the filly Rayya runs in the Oaks on Friday as he trounced her in the UAE Derby.

Hofburg (9): We were on him long before the FL Derby and now he’s quickly becoming the buzz horse he will likely be over bet.

Race 13: 11-9-3
Race 14: 7-4-8-5-6