View From the Grandstand: Playing the Belmont Stakes

By Bob Hill
TSV Staff Writer —-

One way to make money on the Belmont Stakes is to play against Justify (1), and cash if he loses. Another way is to play Justify in an exacta paired with the long shots, and cash when a long shot places. A third way is to play the Pick 5 and/or Pick 4 keying on Justify and extracting value from other legs of those bets.

I do not recommend the first option. Other than guessing or trusting some gut feeling that Justify will lose (one, by the way, that I do not have), I can find no handicapping angle to point me anywhere but to the favorite.

The logical horses to play with Justify include Bravaso (3), Hofburg (4), Tenfold (7), and Vino Rosso (8) based on their pedigrees and racing performances this spring. None of them will produce a large exacta payoff in the second spot behind the favorite, so if you play them there you will have to get value in the third and/or spots to generate a good trifecta or superfecta. That means you will have to play the likes of Free Drop Billy (2), Restoring Hope (5), and/or Noble Indy (9) in those value spots. My ranking of that trio in descending order puts Noble Indy as the most likely to hit the board, followed by Free Drop Billy, and Restoring Hope.

Your in race tickets might look something like: Exacta: 1 with 2,5,9 and Trifecta: 1 with 3,4,8,9 with 2,3,4,7,8,9

Here are three multi-race tickets to consider if you think more is to be gained going this route rather than trying to scratch out value in an exacta or trifecta. The first is a Pick 5 ticket starting in race 7 and the second two are Pick 4 tickets starting in race 8. You can play all of them together, or you can pick the one that suits your fancy. Good luck!

Pick 5 – Races 7-11: 3,8,9,10,11 w/ 3,5,7 w/ 1,4,10 w/ 3,10 w/ 1 = $45 for $.50.

Pick 4 – Races 8-11: 1,3,4,5,7 w/ 1,2,4,10,11 w/ 1,3,8,10 = $50 for $.50

Pick 4 – Races 8-11: 3,5,7 w/ 1,4,10 w/ 1,2,3,8,10 w/ 1,4,7,8 = $90 for $.50