Handicapping the 147th Kentucky Derby

By Rick Francis —-

A field of twenty three-year-olds are slated to go in the 147th edition of the Kentucky Derby and a case can be made for all to wear the garland of roses, however in looking for a “win” bet I’ve narrowed the group down to the following nine.

Race 12) 1&1/4 Mile. Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Grade I. Purse $3,000,000 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH
Post Time: ( 6:57)/ 5:57/ 4:57/ 3:57

1) Known Agenda – Curlin colt is rounding into form having won two straight and demonstrating an explosive burst of speed to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby last out; post position does him no favors, but new starting gate configuration and one of the best in the irons with Irad Ortiz, Jr. he can overcome.

7) Mandaloun – out of Into Mischief, colt came up empty in the Louisiana Derby, but the Risen Star winner comes from a barn that can get them ready to “re-fire”.

9) Hot Rod Charlie – Oxbow colt missed by less than a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, then missed by a neck in the Robert B. Lewis, however shipping to New Orleans for the La. Derby was the cure as he won in clearing fashion.

10) Midnight Bourbon – son of Tiznow has finished across the board in Fair Grounds “Road to the Derby” series fading to second last out to Hot Rod; perfect post might change the outcome today.

14) Essential Quality – a perfect 5-for-5 and the Derby morning line favorite. Tapit colt had his sternest test last out in Blue Grass as he appeared to have awakened late for the win or might have distance issues, either way he’s an obvious win threat but the short price against a field like this will only have me using him in exotic wagers.

15) Rock Your World – and that’s just what he did to the G1 Santa Anita Derby field; jock change to Joel Rosario a plus, but I’ve got concerns about the quality of that SA Derby.

17) Highly Motivated – another outstanding colt by Into Mischief was all-game in his Blue Grass defeat to the race favorite, giving way “grudgingly”; what did that effort take out of him?

18) Super Stock – a textbook ride by Rico Santana propelled this Dialed In colt past a strong Arkansas Derby field including one of the former potential Kentucky Derby favorites in Concert Tour. it’ll be that propulsion that gets him my “win” bet.

Selections: 18, 1, 9, 14, 7