Top Derby Prep of the Winter The Risen Star (G2) at Fair Ground

By Bob Hill —-

Top Derby Prep of the Winter The Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds

The Risen Star Stakes, contested annually at Fair Grounds as the major prep race for the Louisiana Derby, has been the launch pad for a number of three-year-olds who have gone on to extremely successful racing careers. The race’s most famous recent star, Gun Runner, is the sire of two top entries this year that sold for a combined price f $3.7 million to the same connections, Magner, Tabor & Smith. Without question, the 2024 edition of this race comes up as the best Derby prep thus far this year.

1 – Tizzy Lizzy (Desormeaux – Graham) 50-1: He was 61-1 at post time
of the G3 Lecomte and probably will go off at even longer odds here.
Don’t see him making an impact.

2 – Awesome Ruta (Foster – Murrill) 30-1: Five of six lifetime starts
have been sprints. Nothing in his record points to serious contention.

3 – Honor Marie (Beckman – Bejarano) 6-1: Winner of G2 Kentucky
Jockey Club last November at Churchill. He has strong pedigree and the
works are solid. He’ll benefit from up-front pace to close into.
Could hit the board, and a win, although not likely, is not impossible.

4 – Sierra Leone (Brown – Gaffalione) 4-1: Most pundits believe it’s only a matter of time until top grass trainer Chad Brown wins the Kentucky Derby. This son of Gun Runner sends signals that he may be
that horse. He’s proven in the mud, and blinkers go on signaling a desire to keep him closer to the pace this time. Ran very big in the G2 Remsen last fall going from last to first before being caught at the wire. He is a definite win contender.

5 – Moonlight (Pletcher – Geroux) 12-1: Finished fourth in the Remsen in December and makes first start since then here. Even Pletcher’s second string requires a serious look. A small piece may be his
ceiling.

6 – Real Men Violin (McPeek – Hernandez) 8-1: Runner up to Honor Marie in Kentucky Jockey Club last November. He’s versatile, and he’s hit the board in all six starts. A win would be an upset, but a place
in the money would not be a shocker. McPeek is en fuego.

7 – Hall of Fame (Asmussen – Santana) 6-1: This is the horse that all-time winningest trainer Steve Asmussen recommended to the Magnier group at the 2022 summer Fasig-Tipton sale. Broke his maiden January
20th by more than 10 lengths. He absolutely could be any kind. On a hunch, he’s my pick. He’ll have to catch his stablemate.

8 – Catching Freedom (Cox – Saez) 5-1: Winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on New Year’s Day. The Oaklawn shippers are always in play at Fair Grounds. He’ll have to step up here to have an impact, but I
expect nothing less of Cox’s horses this time of year.

9 – Cardinale (Pletcher – Prat) 12-1: This son of Speightstown is fast. He’ll run without blinkers for the first time, so I expect his trainer is wanting to see how he does rating behind the pace. Only
the third lifetime start for connections that make lots of appearances in the winner’s circle.

10 – Resilience (Mott – Velazquez) 12-1: Broke his maiden on the fourth try last out at Gulfstream. He has already raced against some of the top rated three-year-olds. The numbers suggest he’s a cut
below the top runners here, but I never take a Mott entry lightly.

11 – Track Phantom (Asmussen – Rosario) 7-2: TSV editor Rick Francis has predicted that this guy will win the Travers. He may already be a very rich horse by that time. He has to clear and make the lead to be
comfortable in front. If he does, all evidence points to his being able to finish the deal. Legitimate favorite. All systems go on wet surface.

12 – Bee Dancer – (Stewart – Lanerie) 20-1: Tough spot for one’s second lifetime start drawn to the far outside. I’ve made a lot of money betting Dallas Stewart horses in my exotics.

My Picks: 7-4-11-6-3-8