The Last Derby Prep: The Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

The Last Derby Prep

The Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

Bob Hill, TSV writer —-

One of the three-year-old colts in this field could guarantee himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby with a win in this 8.5 furlong race. That horse, Hades (5), has been installed as the second betting favorite in this field of ten. We handicappers are left to figure out if his dud in the Florida Derby is a throw out, or if his win in the G3 Holy Bull was legit. I do not trust this guy in this spot so I’ll definitely look somewhere else for the winner.

The Wine Steward (2) is the ML favorite. He has not raced since last October when he was giving every indication of being a top runner in this age class of young horses. He’s a three-time winner, but coming back off the long layoff is anything but a certainty. I suspect his connections are hoping he shows them enough here to warrant an entry into the Preakness. On paper, he is the class of this bunch.

Encino (8) and Liberal Arts (9) both have Derby qualifying points, but a win here carries only 20 points which is enough to put them right at the cutoff point as things stand in mid-April. They would need a defection or two in order to make it into the Derby. The events of recent years suggest that changes in the list are not only possible, but likely, by Derby Day. Thus, their incentive is real. Encino is a Godolphin homebred son of Nyquist who has run exclusively on poly-track. The transfer of form from Turfway’s synthetics to Keeneland’s dirt is not unheard of, so I give Encino a big chance. Liberal Arts was last seen finishing far behind the winner in the G1 Arkansas Derby two weeks ago. He was very rank in that race. He fits with these, but I just don’t like what I saw at Oaklawn.

Lucky Jeremy (10) is one without a chance to make the Derby field, but he could be the speed of the speed in here, thus making him dangerous. If he’s not challenged by The ine Steward or Hades he could get comfortable and become dangerous. Footprint (4) has kept good company for Kenny McPeek, but he’s more likely to pick up pieces than win.

If The Wine Steward is healthy he’s probably an easy winner. If I can get close to the 5-1 ML odds on Encino he’s my play. Hades should hit the board. Footprint is a nice play at the bottom.

Picks: 8-2-5-4