Kentucky Derby Preview: Favorites, Contenders, Long Shots

Posted On 23 Apr 2017

By Matt Pappis
TSV Staff Writer —-

Favorites

Classic Empire was a champion at 2-years-old winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile over Not This Time who unfortunately was forced to retire. He has won 5-of-7 career starts only losing when he tossed jockey Irad Ortiz in the Hopeful this past summer and a total non effort in the Holy Bull when he made his season debut. Classic Empire will be entering the Derby off a win in the Arkansas Derby. He will need to turn back the page and run the same speed figure he ran in the Breeders’ Cup to be this years Derby winner. If you look at every race he has run the Breeders’ Cup race is the only race fast enough to win this years Kentucky Derby. He will be your likely favorite come post time but I believe he is vulnerable.

Always Dreaming has been highly regarded since making his first start in the Schettino barn being favored in both of his first two career starts without a win. Since entering the Pletcher barn he has won three consecutive times by a combined 20 lengths and was super impressive when running away from the field in the Florida Derby. The mile and a quarter distance should be no problem for this colt.

Irish War Cry will be making his fifth start of the year on the first Saturday in May and that is a draw back to me, I would much rather have a fresh horse come Derby time; and while racing for the 5th time in the year is a bit of draw back, it is hard to get past the fact that he is the only horse in the field with two career Beyer speed figures of over 100, the rest of the field has a combined two.

Contenders

McCracken was undefeated before being forced to the sideline with a minor injury after dominating in the Sam F Davis. His trainer Ian Wilkes is famous for racing them into shape so I am not concerned with his effort in the Blue Grass. The key factor as to why this horse must be on all tickets is that he has yet to lose over the Churchill surface which some don’t take to.

Gunnevera didn’t seem to be fully cranked when winning in the Florida Derby. If you watch the replay of that race, as soon as they broke from the gate jockey Javier Castellano pulled him to the rail and did not make much of an effort till they turned for home, and then he was rolling late. In just about every Derby you will get some sort of pace and this one will be flying late.

Battalion Runner is perfectly bred to get all of the mile and a quarter distance that the Derby has to offer but has clearly had some issues being he’s been so lightly raced. He has improved in each and every start and with another jump forward he is one that must be used on all your tickets.

Long Shots

Hence is the winner of the Sunland Derby, which has proven to be a strong prep after Irap came back to win the Bluegrass and Conquest Mo Money run a very game second in the Arkansas Derby. He is proven at the distance and has the ability to make one sustained run.

Untrapped also exits the Arkansas Derby which was run on a day the track played to a speed bias. As a closer he has shown the ability to chew up a lot of ground in the stretch and will be ensured of a quick pace in the Derby; hopefully Ricardo Santana will be back aboard as he was for his first four starts.

J Boys Echo comes out of the Blue Grass Stakes, and watching the replay I was not satisfied with the ride and also think he didn’t take to the track very well. He is one of the three horse in the field which hold a Beyer over 100.