McCraken one to beat in Derby; Full-Card Selections; Pick-4 & Pick-5 Plays

By Matt Pappis
Tracksideview Staff Writer —-

Races have been handicapped for a fast track and firm turf course please check the weather prior to playing*

Race 1: 5-4-3-2

Race 2: 5 – 4- 8 -7

Race 3: 2-4-5-6

Race 4: 6-5-1-7

Race 5: 9-1-5-11

Race 6: Grade I Humana Distaff

Carina Mia (7): Makes her return from the Breeders’ Cup and should sit a dream trip from the outside post rating off the speed. Expecting a big year from her and it all starts here.

Lightstream (6): Another that will sit directly off the speed and makes a return from a non-threatening December start; Lynch fired all Keeneland meet and I expect it to continue.

Finest City (5): If she runs here she is the one to beat on the turn back.

Race 7: Grade II Distaff Turf Mile

Roca Roja (6): Comes in off a layoff from December and out of the same race as Miss Temple City where she overcame a much tougher trip to just be beaten a nose.

Miss Temple City (2): The class of the field and the one to beat, trainer Graham Motion is gearing this one up for a big year.

Harmonize (7): This will be her toughest class test in some time but she will be rolling late and might be good enough to out kick the top two; most will just be using those two on a pick 3 or 4.

Race 8: Grade III Pat Day Mile

You’re to Blame (10): The one turn mile should hit this horse perfectly second off the layoff for Javier Castellano and Chad Brown.

No Dozing (5): The Lexington was a disaster trip but for him and he should get a dream set up here with a ton of speed signed on.

Bobby on Fleek (12): Steps out of NY-breds and back into open company for the first time sine breaking his maiden. He is the other Chad Brown here and should have no issue getting the mile.

Race 9: Grade II American Turf

Good Samaritan (10): Was very good in defeat in the BC Juvenile Turf and he makes his return for this spot. With a step forward in his 3-year-old campaign he will be a big time player.

Made You Look (9): Gets back on turf after a failed attempted in the Fountain of Youth and we’ve all seen Todd Pletcher dominate the under card on a big stakes day.

Oscar Performance (4): Eligible to bounce back second off the layoff while adding Lasix.

Race 10: Grade II Churchill Downs Sprint

The Truth or Else (10): There is enough speed in this race to set it up for the deep closer that loves Churchill.

Clearly Now (5): His last race was very good and turned back the time to one of his best races, if he replicates that he will be a big player here.

Denman’s Call (12): Possesses the ability to lay way back or sit just off the pace and with the post draw he should be able to pick where he wants to be.

Race 11: Grade I Woodford Turf Classic

World Approval (7): There is not much pace in here to run with this one early so he should be drawing away late. It could be a very very big weekend for this barn.

Beach Patrol (8): Will be flanking World Approval the whole way and we might see them both clear by 4 turning for home.

Divisidero (2): Has won on the past two Derby days, Buff Bradley does a great job of getting him to peak on this day and it seems like he has done that again with his pattern into the race.

Race 12: Grade I Kentucky Derby

McCraken (15): Ian Wilkes is known for racing his horses into shape so I will go ahead and throw out the Bluegrass Stakes. He has looked great in the morning over his favorite surface (3-for-3 at Churchill) and drew a good post for his running style, he will be flying when they turn for home.

Hence (8): The winner of the Sunland Derby, which has proven to be a strong prep after Irap came back to win the Bluegrass and Conquest Mo Money run a very game second in the Arkansas Derby. He is proven at the distance and has the ability to make one sustained run.

Classic Empire (14): I kept going back and forth with making this the top pick, he is the most proven winning 7 of 9 races not to mention he tossed the jockey in one of his two only losses. The one thing about him I don’t like is, he doesn’t seem to have gotten faster from 2 to 3, but no one in this group has.

Gunnevera (10): We all know he will be flying late, but in a 20 horse field more can go wrong then right for a deep closer. He is one I suggest that you use to close out the back end of your tri and super.

Race 13: 4-9-1A -3

Race 14: 9-4-11-5

Suggested Plays

Pick-4 Races 2-5

.50 cents: 4,5,7,8/ 2,4,5/ 1,5,6,7/ 1,5,9,11 = $96

Pick-5 Races 8-12

.50 cents: 1,4,5,10,12/ 4,9,10,11/ 5,10,12/2,7,8/8,14,15 = $270

Derby Trifecta

.50 cents: 8,14,15/4,5,6,8,13,14,15,17/ 4,5,6,8,10,13,14,15,17 = $73.