Many Variables to consider in Belmont Stakes; Full-Card Picks

Posted On 09 Jun 2017

By Bob Hill,
TSV Staff Writer —-

Senior Investment should be able to cover the distance in the 149th running of the Belmont Stakes; Keeneland/Coady Photography

Let’s start with the picks in the big race of the day, the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. I’ll profess honesty right at the start by declaring that finding one to like in here is a very hard task. Due to the typical attrition of the Triple Crown grind, the field this year contains only one G1 winner (Gormley – Santa Anita Derby) and two horses that has hit the board in the previous two leg (Lookin At Lee – second in the Kentucky Derby and Senior Investment – third in the Preakness.) Lacking strong conviction, I offer the following.

In the elimination phase of my handicapping I eliminated six of the field of 12 from my list of contenders, keeping Gormley (3), Lookin At Lee (6), Irish War Cry (7), Senior Investment (8), Multiplier (10), and Epicharis (11) on my list of potential winners.

Gormley (3) – I like both the connections and the pedigree on this John Shirreffs trainee. What I do not like is his inconsistency. He had a troubled trip in the Derby. I have him in the top four.

Lookin at Lee (6) – Asmussen changes jockeys and puts Irod Ortiz on this tough-knocking son of Lookin At Lucky in the hopes of getting him closer to the field earlier in this race. His biggest obstacle is that he is the only entry to have run in both the Derby and Preakness. If he wins the Belmont, it will be strong testimony to this guy’s toughness and endurance. I do not see it happening.

Irish War Cry (7) – He is flattered by Cloud Computing’s win in the Preakness after betting that one in the Wood Memorial. He has the running style that many like for the Belmont in that he will make or be near the pace. He was well positioned in the Derby at the top of the stretch but did not move forward. Graham Motion is a terrific trainer. I just cannot bet him to win at short odds in a such a shaky situation.

Senior Investment (8) – He is a dead closer and bred to run this distance. He is improving every race and this is the type of field that might yield a defy-the-trend outcome.

Multiplier (10) – The impressive winner of the Illinois Derby did not challenge in the Preakness. His trainer is adding blinkers, a clear indication of his intent to get him involved earlier. The injury to Epicharis probably helps his chances.

Epicharis (11) – I was all set to pick this Japanese shipper to win this race until he missed three straight days of workouts this week due to lameness. I think a scratch on race day is more likely now than a winning effort.

Picks: 8-10-7-3-6

The Rest of the Card

Race 1: 7-3-6-2

Race 2: 9-5-7-6

Race 3: 5-4-1-6

Race 4: 8-7-3-1

Race 5: 5-7-2-6

Race 6: 3-4-2-1

Race 7: 3-8-7-10

Race 8: 5-2-1-7

Race 9: 2-5-9-8

Race 10: 1-4-9-3