Handicapping: Keeneland Opening Day Late Pick-5

By Matt Pappis
TSV Staff Writer —-

Keeneland

Race 6) 7 Furlongs. ™OC 80000n3x Purse $71,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Post Time: ( 3:51)/ 2:51/ 1:51/12:51
Coupled : Improv – Sweet Legacy
ADVANCED FORECAST: Partly Sunny, High 82 Low 61

Always On My Mind (7): First time in the Brad Cox barn, and while you don’t improve horses from the Todd Pletcher stable, his horses always come into the fall meet ready. The outside posts at Keeneland are a big advantage at this distance, it should allow for a good stalking trip.

Ready to Confess (6): At Keeneland I have learned to never be afraid of long layoffs; this horse has back class and gets a freshening from February on the turn backs should come ready to run.

Kinsley Kisses (5): Tried the turf in her last and it wasn’t very good, she hasn’t put in a good effort since coming off the layoff in July. Pletcher won at a ridiculous rate during the Keeneland Spring meet and historically has only brought his best stuff to this meet.

Race 7) 1&1/8th Mile. (Turf) Alw 67000n1x Purse $67,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

Surprise Twist (4): Was heavily backed at Saratoga and encountered a disastrous trip; his running style fits Keeneland perfectly and he picks up one of the top jocks at the meet.

United Stand (7): Comes out of a deep race at Kentucky Downs and is in very good form. Keep an eye on this horse as the horse who narrowly defeated him runs back in the last race today.

Harlan Strong (12): We’ll toss his last race in the slop and look at the one he ran two back at Monmouth, which is good enough to win here.

Race 8) 6 Furlongs Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S. Grade II. Purse $250,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

Whitmore (11): If he runs one of his “A” races then he is MUCH the one to beat here. I can excuse his last race off the layoff which wasn’t that bad and his race at Belmont which was a quick turn around. He is a potential single for smaller players.

Threefiveindia (2): Ran a huge one on Travers day and now tries stakes company for the first time in a year, however many of the races he ran in were stakes quality.

Favorite Tale (7): He has races to put him in contention here and even one over the track in the Breeders Cup spring back in 2015.

Race 9) 1&1/16th Mile Darley Alcibiades S. Grade I. Purse $400,000 FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD

Heavenly Love (9): Won very impressively on the turf at Kentucky Downs but should have no problem stretching out here.

Kelly’s Humor (7): Ran a huge second in the Pocahontas circling the field and now picks up Javier Castellano to ride. I would like to see him get her in the game earlier with the lack of speed in this field.

Princess Warrior (1): Won very impressively first out and the inside posts have an advantage at this distance.

*I advise taking as many horses as your budget allows in this leg*

Race 10) 1½ Mile. (Turf) Alw 69000n2x Purse $69,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

St. Louie (8): This is much the one to beat in the race with rising speed numbers and a pace advantage picking up jockey Jose Ortiz. Look at the company lines he kept in Saratoga this summer and his most recent a Grade III at Kentucky Downs.

Honovi (2): Should relish the added distance with the breeding and coming in off a win.

Patrick’s Day (12): The best race this horse ran in his career was over this course to Hunter O’Riley who is a stakes caliber horse.

Suggested Pick 5

5,6,7 / 2,4,7,12/ 2,11 / 1,2,6,7,9,10 / 8 = $72