Handicapping the 105th Louisiana Derby

By Rick Francis —-

FAIR GROUNDS —

Race 10), 1&1/8th Mile. Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby LOUISIANA DERBY. Grade II. Purse $1,000,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS

Post Time: 6:21/( 5:21)/ 4:21/ 3:21
ADVANCED FORECAST: Mostly Cloudy, High 76 Low 65

1) Bravazo (Lukas/Stevens); was just flat-out game to win the Risen Star, his second straight victory. He’s getting it done no other way to look at it; a bullet work in prep for this and the return of Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens(Mena injured) and you’ve got a colt that’ll be one of the early favorites on the first Saturday in May.

2) Noble Indy (Pletcher/Velazquez); Pletcher adds the first time blinkers to the Risen Star show finisher, a solid 21 percent angle. He had every chance in that contest, I don’t think he let’s that chance get away from him here.

3) Marmello (Yanakov/Gilligan); it’s hard to find any angle to endorse this maiden; pass.

4) Givemeaminit (Stewart/Castellano); La-bred has competed at his generations highest level even finishing a neck second in the Grade 1 Hopeful as a juvenile; however he’s better served facing state-bred stakes company.

5) Retirement Fund (Asmussen/Bridgmohan); opened his career winning first two starts, both here, but wanting nothing of the Hot Springs mud last out in the Grade 3 Southwest. Eskendereya colt likes it fast, dry and here; don’t discount or overlook.

6) Hyndford (Pletcher/Bravo); Street Cry finished a game second last out at Tampa and he’ll appreciate this Fair Grounds main, but he’s not there yet.

7) Snapper Sinclair (Asmussen/Ortiz); I don’t think he shocked anybody but the bettors when he valiantly battled to the wire in the Star; you won’t see 41-1 today. He’ll once again be forwardly placed but this time gets the services of one of the best on the lead Jose Ortiz; they’ll have to catch him.

8) Lone Sailor (Amoss/Graham); GMB Racing’s colt by Majestic Warrior finished second in his last but it’s been since his maiden win at Saratoga last summer that he’s produced a speed figure to threaten these.

9) My Boy Jack (Desormeaux/Desormeaux); Brothers Desormeaux have been on a tear and this son of Creative Cause has them seeing a berth in the Kentucky Derby, however it’s with caution that I approach as his clearing win in the Southwest has to be looked at through the eyes of race conditions, which weren’t good. I believe they had another great mud-runner in Exaggerator a couple of years back, but on the dry, so-so; and that’s the finish I see here, so-so.

10) Dark Templar (Walsh/Geroux); this is the scary one in today’s field, Tapit colt has improved in each of his last three, all here culminating with a gate-to-wire score last month. Jockey Geroux knows how to get them clear late in the lane, so this guy deserves a shot.

Fair Grounds main track really has no bias, but in races that I’ve seen over the course of the meet, frontrunners have been tough to catch. Remember, this stretch’s length keeps things equal late so don’t discount closers.

SELECTIONS: (2, 1, 7, 5) + 10