Handicapping the Grade I Florida Derby; Full-card Selections

By Matt Pappis
Tracksideview Staff Writer —-

Strike Power is Matt’s pick in Grade 1 Florida Derby; Coglianese Photo

Race 1: 6-1-2-4

Race 2: 7-11-8-9

Race 3: 3-1-5-6

Race 4: The Cutler Bay

Therapist (1): Should sit a dream trip on the rail behind Speed Franco and Salmanazar and get out at the top of the stretch to run them down. Hoping the 3/1 morning line holds second off the layoff for Clement.

Speed Franco (3): Big jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz and will be the big favorite here but should not get it all his own way up front due to the presence of Salmanazar.

Neepawa (5): Has been much improved since returning to the races in January and should get a nice stalking trip in behind the speed.

Race 5: The Sanibel Island

Tocame Linda (4): Going to take a shot with this big price on top. She was impressive first out running down a decent field at Tampa. Tom Albetrani is known for being very patient so winning first out flatters this one even more.

Orginator (3): Regressed a little in her second start after coming back on only 3 weeks rest she looks like the one to beat for me second time routing.

Best Performance (8): Will go as a huge favorite in this race but his numbers don’t exactly lay over this field we will see if he has matured since the Breeders Cup.

Race 6: 4-7-11-13

Race 7: 7-3-1-2

Race 8: Grade II Gulfstream Park Handicap

Page McKenney (6): The one turn mile suits this horse extremely well he should get an ideal stalking trip from the outside post. He got back on track with his win in the last and should continue to step forward.

Tommy Macho (5): He has ran off the board in 5 career starts at Gulfstream and for me is the “right” Pletcher in this race.

Irish War Cry (4) : Just couldn’t get by Economic Model who will go off as one of the top betting choices in Duabi but he likely needed a race off the layoff as Motion is known for racing his horses into shape.

Race 9: 5 -1-2-7

Race 10: 7-5-9-3

Race 11: Grade III Honey Fox

Grizzel (6): Chased a wire to wire winner when coming off a 7 month layoff, she should get a good set up here with some other speed signed on.

Lull (2): The one turn mile configuration suits her perfect for her come back off the layoff. Clement posts big numbers off the layoff into graded stakes and he’s looking to go back to back in this race.

On Leave (10): She is the class of this race if she runs her race she will win, however this looks to be a set up race for Keeneland or Belmont.

Stormy Victoria (3): One of the more consistent horses in the race and should get a good set up she is looking to win her second stakes of the Gulfstream meet.

Race 12: Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks

Cache (4): Had a really tough trip in her last, she started by missing the break and then she was stopped a few times in the stretch. I want to give her a chance going two turns with a clean trip.

Coach Rocks (2): She finally put it all together breaking her maiden by open lengths and fits on any type of numbers you look at; if they let her go alone early they might not catch her late.

Princess Warrior (9): Getting back on the dirt where she had success this fall; she is pace dependent, if she gets it she will have a big shot in here.

Take Charge Paula (3): Had a very odd trip when routing for the first time but gets a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz so we will give her another chance in here.

Race 13: Grade II Pan America

Bigger Picture (7): Not many in the country are as good as Mike Maker getting a horse to go long. His races from this summer put him right in the mix to win this race and he will be very fresh.

Saddlers Joy (8): He is MUCH the one to beat here, he might be the best turf horse in America right now.

One Go All Go (9): Saddlers Joy just got up to beat him in the shadow of the wire last time and they will have to run him down again if they want to win today.

Race 14: Grade I Florida Derby

Strike Power (1): Drawing the inside post should play to his advantage as I expect him to go to the lead this time. Looks like he will go as long as he can as far as he can and I would not want to be the one trying to run him down.

Audible (8): If he duplicates his Holy Bull performance he will be very difficult to beat for a trainer that has won this race 4 times. He should get a nice stalking trip behind Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled.

Hofburg (7): His maiden win was freakish, 5 wide the whole way and drew off to win easily; while he’s spotting this field some experience he has a bright future.

Note: I am strictly against Catholic Boy and have heard many handicappers tout him this week. Other than beating Avery Island in the Remsen he has not shown anything on dirt to be within 5 lengths of the top two; he was given the full length of the stretch to get by Flameaway and could not do it. Flameaway is currently about 60/1 in the future pools and would be 10/1 or higher in this field. To me this horse is being poorly miss managed by the connections who are chasing a Derby with a horse who has no chance. He belongs back on the turf where he has shown much more promise.