Kentucky Oaks Day: Full-Card & Stakes Selections

By Matt Pappis
Tracksideview Staff Writer —-

Highlighted by the 144th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, Tracksideview’s Matt Pappis gives his selections for the day’s full-card of racing; you can also view Matt’s multi-race plays in Race Selections.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Post Time: (10:30)/ 9:30/ 8:30/ 7:30

Race 1: 6-1-4
Race 2: 8-7-4-12
Race 3: 10-8-5
Race 4: 6-1-11 -4

Race 5) Grade II Eight Belles Stakes

Mia Mischief (3): Looks like the one to beat, second off the layoff with a good inside post to get position and play catch me if you can.

Gas Station Sushi (5): Returned off a nine month layoff to win the Grade III Beaumont at Keeneland and would be the one who benefits from a hot pace.

Hold Her Tight (7): was an impressive winner at Keeneland in a good OC75k n/1x field; has drawn well for her first shot at a stakes.

Race 6) Grade I La Troienne

Abel Tasman (3): The class of the field who hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Cup where she was a hard luck loser, she’s the class and much the one to beat.

Martini Glass (8): Has been in top form this winter and should be able to work a good trip out with the lack of pace presence in here; dangerous.

Farrell (2): She might be able to get loose here with the lack of speed in the race and will try to take them all the way; for those of you doubting her last race, please note it was on a sloppy track where she has had many poor attempts.

Race 7) Grade III Twin Spires Turf Sprint

Will Call (10): Since switching to the turf, he has shown new life with two wins and a narrow defeat to Holding Gold, who would be a very short price favorite here. If we toss his last over the soft turf at Keeneland this is a major player.

Vision Perfect (7): A tactical horse in a field with a load of speed, hopefully jockey Paco Lopez doesn’t send this one early and he sits a nice stalking trip; has shown to be much more competitive at 5 furlongs distances as opposed to the routes he was previously running.

Delectation (1): I believe the G1 First Lady was a prep for this race where she gets back to one turn sprints, a route where she was very competitive overseas. Picks up lasix and Johnny V for her second start in the states.

Race 8) Grade II Alysheba

Backyard Heaven (4): Arlight was going to take a shot here, but I think this one might be special for Chad Brown and with all the big names in here, the 9/2 might become 7/1 or more.

Good Samaritan (1): Undoubtedly the one to beat, in my mind his last off a long layoff was super impressive and he has shown that he has more to offer.

Awesome Slew (8): Have always thought he was good enough to win going two turns where many think he is better going 1; interesting to see him show up here as opposed to the Churchill Downs Sprint on Derby day.

Hoppertunity (5): He runs his better races when he faces this level of class, it’s just hard to endorse him when he doesn’t like to win and others in this field will offer better value.

Race 9: 6-2-4-7

Race 10) Grade III Edgewood

Daddy Is a Legend (6): Hopped at the start in her last where she narrowly lost to champion Rushing Fall, would like to see her get a clean shot and some pace to run at here. The price difference is far too big.

Rushing Fall (7): One of the most likely winners on the card but this is no easy field, she will be all of 3/5, so you must decide to single or try to beat her.

Toinette (7): Beat a salty field at Keeneland and takes the step up into stakes for the first time, she will be all of 12/1 with a big shot.

Race 11) Grade I Kentucky Oaks
Post Time: ( 6:12)/ 5:12/ 4:12/ 3:12

My Miss Lilly (11): What’s the one thing she has in this race that the others don’t, a win at the distance. She has improved in each and every start and will get the set up here for top class connections. Who doesn’t want to see Hennig, Bravo and Courtland team up for an Oaks win?

Midnight Bisou (10): She’s tactical, she can win from off the pace and is a dead closer which will help her in a field filled with speed. She’s done everything right from day 1 and must be respected.

Monomoy Girl (14): The one to beat but the post will do her no favors; she will have to be much the best to win here.

Rayya (7): Has not finished worse than second in 5 career starts but the class is a question coming from Dubai.

Eskimo Kisses (13): The one in the race we know who will relish the 1 1/8 distance; if there a wet track she moves way up, as she won an allowance and ran her best career number in the slop.

*Highly recommended if you can afford to use the 7, 13 adding them to tickets in some capacity or playing pick 3s with them to cover yourself they will be big prices.

Race 12: 10-6-1
Race 13: 2-6-11