Correll’s Corner: Derby 144 offers many choices, Audible is mine

By Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —-

Audible; Eclipse Sportswire Photo

(Note: You can catch Ron live Saturday morning at 9 a.m. on 1450am or on the web at: https://tunein.com/radio/Sports-Radio-1450-s28790/)

The 144th Kentucky Derby on May 5 at Churchill Downs will boast a strong field of 3-year-old colts. I usually say that there are 10 colts in the field that don’t belong there. This year I think there are 10 that could win it.

First I’m going to list the colts in post-position order and give their sire, last race results and the Beyer speed figure from that race. I might point out a thing or two about each colt and then I’ll summarize at the end of the column.

Firenze Fire (1) (Poseidon Warrior) was fourth in the Wood Memorial and received an 81 speed figure. I question if he wants to go 10 furlongs. He tries to close. Morning-line odds: 50-1

Free Drop Billy (2) (Union Rags) was fourth in the Blue Grass and received an 89 speed figure. He’s a closer and I think there are too many good colts for him to pass. 30-1

Promises Fulfilled (3) (Shackleford) was ninth in the Florida Derby after setting murderous early fractions. I don’t think he can go that far and he could be dueling Justify early. 30-1

Flameaway (4) (Scat Daddy) was second in the Blue Grass and received a 93 speed figure. He’s another that could show speed early. 30-1

Audible (5) (Into Mischief) won the Florida Derby from an outside post and received a 99 speed figure. His distance pedigree may come into question. He’ll be one of the stalkers. 8-1

Good Magic (6) (Curlin) won the Blue Grass in a 14-horse field and received a 95 speed figure. Pedigree says he’ll run all day. He’ll be a stalker. 12-1

Justify (7) (Scat Daddy) won Santa Anita Derby and received a 107 speed figure. He’s lightly raced and had his way in his three races. He’ll find more traffic in the Derby. He’s part of the speed and he could be the fastest. 3-1

Lone Sailor (8) (Majestic Warrior) barely missed in the Louisiana Derby and received a 95 speed figure for second. He’s another deep closer and a lot of wise guys will be on this horse. 50-1

Hofburg (9) (Tapit) was second in the Florida Derby and received 94 speed figure. And just like Justify that was only his third lifetime race and he’s still learning. This guy will be coming from the clouds and if there’s a hot pace, look for him late. 20-1

My Boy Jack (10) (Creative Cause) won the Stonestreet Lexington at Keeneland and received a 90 speed figure. He’s another closer, but I think he’s in over his head. 30-1

Bolt d’Oro (11) (Medaglia d’Oro) was second in the Santa Anita Derby and received a 102 speed figure. This will be his third start off a layoff. He’s a stalker. I like the jockey change to Victor Espinoza. 8-1

Enticed (12) (Medaglia d’Oro) was second in the Wood Memorial and received a 93 speed figure. He’s a good colt but may not be in the top tier. He’s a stalker. 30-1

Bravazo (13) (Awesome Again) won the Risen Star and then was eighth in the Louisiana Derby and received a 64 speed figure. I guess trainer D. Wayne Lukas doesn’t think it’s a Kentucky Derby unless he’s there. Pedigree says he’ll run all day, but how fast is the question. He could be stalking. 50-1

Mendelssohn (14) (Scat Daddy) won the UAE Derby by 18 lengths and received a 116 Time Form rating. He could be part of the speed. Watch how Rayya runs in the Kentucky Oaks on May 4 and that may be a clue to this guy since she was second in the UAE Derby. 5-1

Instilled Regard (15) (Arch) was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and received a 90 speed figure for that effort. Of course that was 17 points behind the winner for you numbers guys. He’s a stalker, but that’s going to be a very crowded area. 50-1

Magnum Moon (16) (Malibu Moon) won the Arkansas Derby and received a 98 speed figure. Distance shouldn’t be a problem with him but in his last two races he’s veered out in the stretch as if he’s tired. Don’t know what to make of it. He’s part of the speed. 6-1

Solomini (17) (Curlin) was third in the Arkansas Derby and received a 92 speed figure. He’s been running into some good horses and that’s why he hasn’t won this year. He’s a stalker. 30-1

Vino Rosso (18) (Curlin) won the Wood Memorial and received a 98 speed figure and the lowest Thorograph number. He’ll run all day and he’ll be one of the stalkers. 12-1

Noble Indy (19) (Take Charge Indy) won the Louisiana Derby and received a 95 speed figure. He hasn’t run since March 25 and probably is the least respected of the Todd Pletcher quartet. He’s part of the speed. 30-1

Combatant (20) (Scat Daddy) was fourth in the Arkansas Derby and received a 92 speed figure. I think he’s another over-matched colt. He’s another closer. 50-1

Blended Citizen is the also eligible. 50-1 if he gets in.

The 10 colts that have a chance of winning the race are Audible, Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro, Justify, Mendelssohn, Vino Rosso, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy, Hofburg and Flameaway. Noble Indy and Flameaway would be the two I would drop first.

If I’m playing a Pick 4 (and I will be) I’ll have to key on some horses in the earlier races and go long in the Derby leg. So getting the Derby part of the Pick 4 out of the way first, I would use 5,6,7,9,11,14,16,18.

There probably will be six colts looking for the lead out of the gate and they will be Noble Indy, Justify, Flameaway, Promises Fulfilled and Magnum Moon. Mendelssohn could be the sixth but I think his jockey can get him off the pace if it’s blistering. Promises Fulfilled only has one way to go and that’s to the lead dragging the other five along.

I think Promises Fulfilled will be done by the three-eighths pole (six furlong) and if the others stayed with him, they’ll be cooked also.

The stalkers that I like are Good Magic, Audible, Vino Rosso and Bolt d’Oro. Several others could be trying to stalk but I think they’ll just be in the way.

The real closers are Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor and Hofburg. All three will be wise-guy colts and will get a lot of money dropped on them.

Three weeks ago I was a guest on TVG (horse-racing channel) and was forced to make my picks for the Derby early. I usually like to watch the colts at Churchill Downs and talk with one of the clockers. Obviously that wasn’t the case this year.

Still, I’m not going to back off the three colts I named that day. They were Audible, Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro. I also was asked to pick a long shot and that colt is Hofburg.

The two freaks in this field are Justify and Mendelssohn. I have no problem with people picking them to win. Both could end up on the front and never look back. They both may be so much better than the rest. Mendelssohn can run on anything and Justify has not had to look anybody in the eye. If one of these two beats me, he beats me, but he’s not going to beat me in the Pick 4.

So my top three picks are 5,6,11 and 9 is the shot horse.

Cover Photo: Audible; Eclipse Sportswire Photo