Justify on top in the 150th Belmont Stakes

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —-

The 150th Belmont Stakes on June 9 at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y. drew a field of 10 3-year-old colts with Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify getting the rail. Trainer Bob Baffert said he wasn’t happy with the draw but that’s racing. Baffert said he never likes the rail but Justify can run from anywhere.

Justify is attempting to become the 13th Triple Crown winner and the second in four years. American Pharoah, also a Baffert colt, broke a 37-year drought in 2015. The son of Scat Daddy also would be the first unbeaten Triple Crown winner since Seattle Slew in 1977.

Here’s a quick look at the field for the mile-and-a-half race.

Justify (1) (Scat Daddy) won the Derby and Preakness and is unbeaten in five starts. Odds 4-5

Free Drop Billy (2) (Union Rags) was 16th in the Derby. 30-1

Bravazo (3) (Awesome Again) was second in the Preakness. 8-1

Hofburg (4) (Tapit) was seventh in the Derby. 9-2

Restoring Hope (5) (Giant’s Causeway) was 12th in the Pat Day Mile and third in the Wood. 30-1

Gronkowski (6) (Lonhro) was the European entry into the Derby but didn’t start. He hasn’t been farther than a mile and has never been on dirt. 12-1

Tenfold (7) (Curlin) was third in the Preakness. 12-1

Vino Rosso (8) (Curlin) was ninth in the Derby and won the Wood. 8-1

Noble Indy (9) (Take Charge Indy) was 17th in the Derby and won the Louisiana Derby. 30-1

Blended Citizen (10) (Proud Citizen) won the Peter Pan at Belmont. 12-1

This is the only time these colts probably will run this far, so let’s get that out of the way first. To say one of these is bred to go that far is kind of silly.

Here’s the way the race should set up. Justify, Restoring Hope and Noble Indy are the speed. Mike Smith won’t let Justify get trapped on the rail, so he’ll probably send him and try and get him off the rail.

Restoring Hope also is trained by Baffert so it’s unlikely that colt will put a lot pressure on Justify. Restoring Hope is owned by Gary and Mary West and it could be more of the owners wanting to run in the Belmont instead of Baffert.

Todd Pletcher trains Noble Indy and Vino Rosso and Noble Indy could harass Justify early with Vino Rosso swooping in late for the kill. Vino Rosso is a stalker, which is a spot horses need to be in to win this race.

Trainer Bill Mott says he want Hofburg closer to the pace, i.e. third or fourth. This is the one that I think has the best chance of stopping Justify.

Free Drop Billy, Bravazo and Tenfold are dead closers. I wouldn’t let what happened in the Preakness with Bravazo and Tenfold coming late to grab place and show influence me in this race. Baffert said because of Justify’s bruised heel after the Kentucky Derby that he didn’t have a chance to work the colt the way he wanted. Justify came out of the Preakness in much better shape and has had two workouts before this race.

I don’t have a clue how Gronkowski or Blended Citizen will run, but if they fall back early I don’t think they’ll be a factor.

If Justify breaks fine and Smith gets him where he wants, it just a question of how much the first two races took out of him. He’s a big, good colt and I think he should just gallop around the “Big Sandy” oval.

For betting purposes I would put Justify on top. If you have questions about him, put someone else with him. Then pick a few horses for the second and drop a few in for the trifecta.

Something like:

1,4
1,4,8
3,4,7,8

Cover Photo: Justify; Alex Evers Photo