Handicapping the Rachel Alexandra & Risen Star Stakes

By Rick Francis —-

Serengeti Empress; Coady Photography

FAIR GROUNDS
Race 11) Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra 3YO Fillies 1&1/16th Miles Post Time 6:29/( 5:29)/ 4:29/ 3:29

Certain finishing positions in this race will earn points to qualify for the 2019 Kentucky Oaks,pursuant to the official rules for the Road to the Kentucky Oaks published by Churchill
Downs. Points will be earned in the following manner: 50 to the winner, 20 to second, 10
to third and 5 to fourth

1) Molto Bell (Violence); drew away from a Tampa stakes field last out, a sprint; maybe better suited doing that.

2) Street Band (Istan); nosed out OC’s here last month, her third Fair Grounds start; posted a bullet work for this.

3) Serengeti Empress (Alternation); got put in a bad spot in the BC Juvenile Filly and there’s no other way to look at it; she’s the real deal and jock change will prove it.

4) Positive Spirit (Pioneer of the Nile); dominated the Grade 2 Demoiselle field last out at Aqueduct, however thought her win two back at Churchill was more impressive; she’s ready and has to be considered.

5) Liora (Candy Ride); G2 Golden Rod winner tired here in the Silverbulletday, which wasn’t an overwhelming pace, it’ll get quicker here.

6) Oxy Lady (Oxbow); think she bounced in the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Al after winning the G3 Tempted cross-country at Aqueduct, but her very quick work tab here suggests she’s back on track.

7) Bell’s the One (Majesticperfection); is a “perfect” 3-for-3, all sprinting. The stretch-out angle for trainer Pessin is currently zero.

8) Eres Tu (Malibu Moon); battled gamely in the Silverbulletday stretch coming up 3/4’s short; this will be her fourth Fair Grounds start and will be a threat once again.

9) Needs Supervision (Paynter); held off the aforementioned in the Silverbulletday for her third straight victory; she’s on top of her game and has to be used in all plays.

10) Chasing Yesterday (Scratched)

Selections: 3, 8, 9, 6

Hog Creek Hustle; Coady Photography

Race 12) 1&1/16th Mile. Risen Star S. presented by Lamarque Ford Grade II. Purse $400,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS Post Time: 7:02/( 6:02)/ 5:02/ 4:02

Points for the Kentucky Derby will be earned in the following manner: 50 to the winner, 20 to second, 10 to third and 5 to fourth.

1) Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/Leparoux); stumbling out of the LeComte gate doomed his chances to win yet he stayed on for a respectable fifth. He was a neck away in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club so the skills are there.

2) Roiland (Amoss/Graham); ran to his double-digit odds in each of his last two; it doesn’t get easier in this.

3) Mr. Money (Calhoun/Saez); makes his first start of the year after a steady effort to fill out the superfecta in the BC Juvenile last November. He’s been working continuously here since that start and can be an exotics player once again.

4) Chase the Ghost (Stewart/Murrill); he got shoved around a bit in the LeComte but he wasn’t going to factor. Ghostzapper colt will be a good summer stakes horse.

5) Henley’s Joy (Maker/Franco); colt is a “dead-red” stakes winning turf player; I think it’s late in the game at this level for surface switch angles, however there’s a colt on the far outside that’s proven that theory wrong.

6) Hog Creek Hustle (Foley/Geroux); he’s been solid in each of his last three starts, most notably his runner-up effort in the LeComte; things have to break just right but he’ll be competitive once again.

7) Manny Wah (Catalano/Hill); has finished in the money in both of Fair Grounds Derby preps; he weakened for third in the LeComte breaking from post twelve, a fate the befells others; comes in overlooked.

8) Owendale (Cox/Bridgmohan); as far as “overlooked”, don’t with this Brad Cox offering. Makes his third Fair Grounds start and with last posted the field’s highest last out speed figure.

9) Country House (Mott/Saez); Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott doesn’t ship to ship, but this maybe a stopover for Oaklawn stakes.

10) Limonite (Asmussen/Hernandez, B.); one of the last of the late Lemon Drop Kid’s makes his first start of 2019; needs one.

11) Dunph (Maker/Ortiz, J.); finished third last out in the Springboard Mile, not the strongest of Derby preps.

12) Frolic More (Stewart/Lanerie); this is the Stewart entry that finds a spot in the “Run for the Roses”.

13) Kingly (scratched)

14) War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione); since switching to the main track he hasn’t fooled anybody, especially the oddsmakers winning two straight as race favorite; here is where he may run into problems, his outside opponent is speed which will push him early and may cost him late.

15) Gun It (Asmussen/Santana); the aforementioned “speed”; though they’re more than capable from these posts, just can’t see either holding the field off for the win.

Selections: 6, 7, 14, 3, 8

Cover Photo: Hog Creek Hustle; Coady Photography