Handicapping the 106th Louisiana Derby & 52nd Fair Grounds Oaks

By Rick Francis —-

FAIR GROUNDS

Race 13) Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby Purse $1 Million 3yo 1&1/8th Miles Post Time 5:13 CDT

1) Roiland (Amoss/Graham) M/L 12-1; hard to tell if he improved in the Risen Star (which he did by finish), or just passed tiring foes; a similar finish today gets him in the big dance first Saturday in May.

2) Lemniscate (McPeek/Hernandez, B.) M/L 15-1; earned his maiden win last out by wiring GP maidens over the turf; tough spot.

3) Limonite (Asmussen/Ortiz, J.) M/L 20-1; another whom passed tiring foes in the Star; pass.

4) Sueno (Desormeaux/Lanerie) M/L 8-1; just missed by less than a length in the Southwest, his fourth straight improving effort; with a similar try today he could book himself a starting spot in the “Run for the Roses”.

5) By My Standards (Calhoun/Saez) M/L 12-1; colt has improved in each of his four career starts culminating with his maiden score last out, however this is a reach.

6) War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) M/L 6-5; what makes this War Front colt dangerous here and in Kentucky Derby is the ease of when asked he responds; he’s never out of position regardless of post and this is his race to lose.

7) Mr.Money (Calhoun/Beschizza) M/L 20-1; since tiring in the Star connections have been putting through some quick am’s which could keep him closer at the end.

8) Country House (Mott/Saez, L.) M/L 9-2; maiden acquitted himself very nicely in the Star coming from well back to place and put him squarely in the Derby mix; he looks to be clearly second best in this.

9) Bankit (Asmussen/Ortiz, I.) M/L 20-1; he’s just failed to fire in his last two at Oaklawn so change of racing venue can’t hurt.

10) Spinoff (Pletcher/Velazquez, J.) M/L 8-1; drew away from a short Tampa field in last but Hard Spun colt has shown he’s got something, showing last summer in the G3 Saratoga Special; I just don’t think he’ll come in here and steal this one.

11) Hog Creek Hustle (Foley/Mena) M/L 12-1; this guy likes this course and rallied in the Star to fill out the supers after having to check-up; he can get a share.

Selections: 6, 8, 4, 11

Race 12) Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks 3yo Fillies 1&1/16th Miles Post Time 4:44 CDT

1) Speedette (Desormeaux/Lanerie) M/L 10-1; maiden win last out came over the turf; turf to dirt angle is 17 percent for trainer.

2) Serengeti Empress (Amoss/Graham) M/L 6-5; went to the front in the Rachel Alexandra with new rider James Graham and never looked back; expect the same today.

3) Street Band (Jones/Doyle) M/L 8-1; lacked the late kick to threaten the top pick in the Rachel; she has the skills to be part of the exotics mix.

4) Sweet Diane (Stidham/Bravo) M/L 8-1; board finished in each of her four career starts; als has enough to consider in exotic plays.

5) Crescentcitypretty (Benoit/Mena) M/L 15-1; a player at Delta Downs, this isn’t Delta Downs.

6) Eres Tu (Asmussen/Ortiz, J.) M/L 6-1; wide throughout in the Rachel she still managed to stay for third; a major jock change here with Ortiz.

7) Slewgoodtobetrue (Eurton/Geroux) M/L 8-1; Cal-shipper enters having won back-to-backs at troubled Santa Anita; gets one of Fair Grounds best in Geroux.

8) Liora (Catalano/Hill) M/L 5-1; second best in Rachel; gets first blinkers today, a solid training angle to consider.

Selections: 2, 6, 7, 8