Correll’s Corner: 145th Kentucky Derby Analysis & Wagering Strategy

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —-

Roadster; Benoit Photo

The complexion of the 145th Kentucky Derby on May 4 at Churchill Downs had a major change on Wednesday, May 1 when morning-line favorite Omaha Beach was scratched because of an entrapped epiglottis.

“After training this morning we noticed him cough a few times,” trainer Richard Mandella said. “It caused us to scope him and we found an entrapped epiglottis. We can’t fix it this week so we’ll have to have a procedure done in a few days and probably be out of training for three weeks. We’ll have to figure out a whole new game plan.”

The epiglottis is a triangular-shaped cartilage that lies at the base of the airway just in front of the arytenoid cartilages which cover the airway during swallowing. When an abnormality occurs in this area it can hinder the performance of horses.

With the scratch of Omaha Beach, Bodexpress will draw into the field and break from post position 20. All horses outside of Omaha Beach (post positions 13-20) will move over one position in the starting gate. Odds maker Mike Battaglia also revised the line and Game Winner is now the favorite at 9-2.

I’ll look at the field of 21 in post- position order and give any negatives or positives about each colt. I also will list the sire and jockeys of each colt and what the morning-line odds are for each. Then I’ll wrap it up with who I like and how to play a ticket.

The post-position order from the rail out with jockeys and revised odds:

War of Will (1) (War Front) pulled a hind muscle at the start of the Louisiana Derby but he had done nothing wrong up to that point. He’s training great and I’ll give him another chance. He’s got to go from this post and he’ll be on my tickets. Mark Casse is the trainer and Tyler Gaffalione rides. Odds: 15-1.

Tax (2) (Arch) is one that wintered in New York and I’m not a big fan of that circuit. I’ll pass. Danny Gargan is the trainer and Junior Alvarado rides. 20-1

By My Standards (3) (Goldencents) won the Louisiana Derby after favorite War of Will had trouble at the start of the race. Bret Calhoun trains and Gabriel Saez rides. Some wise guys picked him to win in the Louisiana and I guess they’re still with him. He’s not in my top five. 15-1

Gray Magician (4) (Graydar) was second in the UAE Derby. If I don’t like the winner, I don’t like this guy either. Peter Miller is the trainer and Drayden Van Dyke rides. 50-1

Improbable (5) (City Zip) was second in the Rebel and second in the Arkansas Derby. His gate antics worry me but I will use him on tickets and he’s in my top five. Bob Baffert trains and Irad Ortiz Jr. rides. 5-1

Vekoma (6) (Candy Ride) was third in the Fountain of Youth and won the Blue Grass at Keeneland. George Weaver trains and Javier Castellano has the ride. He really wasn’t on my radar until he won the Blue Grass, but maybe he just needed to get out of Florida. 15-1

Maximum Security (7) (New Year’s Day) beat the best the East had to offer in the Florida Derby. Jason Servis is the trainer and Luis Saez gets the ride. This guy was running in a $16,000 claimer earlier this year. Good news was no one claimed him. I like this guy. 8-1

Tacitus (8) (Tapit) won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He’s trained by Bill Mott and Jose Ortiz has the ride. I’m not a fan of winter racing in New York, but winning in Florida will strengthen his case with a lot of people but not with me. Morning line odds: 8-1.

Plus Que Parfait (9) (Point of Entry) couldn’t make a dent on the American prep trail and went to Dubai to win the UAE Derby. The trainer is Brendan Walsh and Ricardo Santana has the ride. He won’t be getting any of my money. 30-1

Cutting Humor (10) (First Samurai) won the Sunland Derby at altitude in New Mexico. He has the fastest time for any mile-and-an-eighth prep race this year. I think a lot of that had to do with where it was run. And speaking of running, he hasn’t in six weeks. Todd Pletcher trains and Corey Lanerie rides. 30-1

Haikal (11) (Daaher) is another product of winter racing in New York. That says it all. Kiaran McLaughlin trains and Rajiv Maragh has the mount. 30-1

Omaha Beach (scratch)

Code of Honor (13) (Noble Mission) looked great in the Fountain of Youth then was dull in the Florida Derby and finished third. Shug McGaughey III is the trainer and John Velazquez has the ride. I liked him early in the year, but not now. 12-1

Win Win Win (14) (Hat Trick) has been on a lot of Derby lists all spring but he hasn’t lived up to that enthusiasm. He was second in the Blue Grass. Mike Trombetta is the trainer and Julian Pimentel is the rider. 12-1
Master Fencer (15) (Just Away is from the Sunday Silence sire line) is the Japanese entry and I’m clueless. Koichi Tsunoda trains and Julien Leparoux will ride. 50-1

Game Winner (16) (Candy Ride) hasn’t displayed his 2-year-old form this year. He was second in the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby. Bob Baffert trains for Gary and Mary West who also own Maximum Security. Joel Rosario has the ride. I’ll use this guy but with some reservations. 9-2

Roadster (17) (Quality Road) ran by stable-mate Game Winner to take down the Santa Anita Derby. Bob Baffert trains and Florent Geroux will ride. This is the only Baffert trainee that Omaha Beach didn’t beat. 5-1

Long Range Toddy (18) (Take Charge Indy) won a division of the Rebel but didn’t fire in his next start. A lot of people will be using him because of his closing kick. Steve Asmussen is the trainers and Jon Court has the ride. 30-1

Spinoff (19) (Hard Spun) was third in the Louisiana Derby and that’s it. Todd Pletcher trains and Manny Franco gets the ride. 30-1

Country House (20) (Lookin at Lucky) is one that has not lived up to his billing. He comes late but can’t seem to finish the deal. Bill Mott trains and Flavien Pratt rides. 30-1

Bodexpress (21) (Bodemeister) was second in the Florida Derby and still is a maiden. Gustavo Delgado is the trainer and Chris Landeros is the rider. 30-1

With the scratch of Omaha Beach, the only real speed is Maximum Security. War of Will has been up close in a couple of his races and jockey Tyler Gaffalione may goose him on Saturday because of the rail draw. Outside of that you have about 16 stalkers and closers.

I’ll be honest, Omaha Beach was my pick before his scratch. I just thought he looked like a man among boys so I’ll have to make do with what is left. I had planned to use these colts on my Pick Four ticket anyway. They are: War of Will (1), Improbable (5), Maximum Security (7), Game Winner (16) and Roadster (17). I just can’t see adding anyone else.

As far as internal betting in the race you could either do a five-horse trifecta box 1,5,7,16,17 for $1 that will cost $60 or a five-horse trifecta wheel or key (whichever you call it) and it would go something like this:

5,7,17
with 1,5,7,16,17
with 1,5,7,16,17
This bet for $1 will cost $36.

I have a lot of respect for War of Will (1) but I’ve seen too many horses draw the one hole and get banged up coming down the lane the first time. That is the reason that I am not keying him on top in the trifecta wheel.

My top selection now is Roadster (17), Maximum Security (7) and Improbable (5) filling out a straight trifecta.

Good Luck!