Picks for Kentucky Derby Prep Races March 7, 2020

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —-

Three prep races offering 50 points to the winners are carded for March 7th at Aqueduct, Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Anita respectively. It’s the time of the year to start paying much closer attention to these races from which Derby hopefuls will emerge.

Gotham Stakes G3 – 1 mile at Aqueduct Picks: 6-4-5-10

This one turn affair has attracted what is most likely the second tier of three-year-olds trained on the East Coast. The Gotham serves as the last prep for the Wood Memorial where we likely see a few of these take on tougher competition. Here are my picks.

6 – Mischevious Alex: Trained by John Service and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, this colt has won half of his six life-time starts. All three wins have been in one-turn sprints ranging in distance from 4-1/2 to 7 furlongs. He’s the only previous winner of a graded stakes race in this field. He’s 3-1 on the morning line, a proposition that bettors will not come close to getting at post time.

4 – Attachment Rate: Dale Romans had to be disappointed last weekend with the poor performance of his much-ballyhooed Derby contender Dennis’ Moment. Attachment Rate gives him a chance at redemption in the Gotham. He’s competed favorably in good competition, and he fits in this field at ML odds of 9-2.

5 – Necker Island: This Hard Spun offspring clunked in the G3 Swale, but up until then he made steady progress for Stanley Hough. With Manny Franco aboard, I like his chances to hit the board if he gets a better trip than in his last outing. Nice odds at 12-1 on the ML.

10 – Untitled: Another that got blitzed in the Swale, this Mark Casse trainee finished second to the highly regarded Gouvernour Morris in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs last month. The oddsmaker likes him at 4-1.

Tampa Bay Derby G2 – 1-1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs Picks: 4-5-7-2

4 – Chance It: This Florida-bred son of Currency Swap has dominated state-bred competition in Florida. Last month, his trainer, Saffie Joseph, Jr. entered him in the Mucho Macho Man against open company where he gutted out a win over some top three-year-olds. He won’t offer much value with a ML tab at 5-2, but I like the story and I respect the horse.

5 – Market Analysis: A second time starter in a G2 route race is a page out of Bob Baffert’s book, but this is Todd Pletcher doing the unlikely at Tampa. Such is the testimony of how much the connections must think of this Honor Code offspring who broke his maiden on January 25th at Gulfstream. His work tabs are solid. Wouldn’t a win here present his connections with a dilemma?

7 – Sole Volante: Trained by red hot handler Patrick Biancone, this turf racing transplant has attracted a great deal of attention from the press. He’s a late running closer in the classic style of a turf horse, which means he is always subject to pace and traffic issues. Florent Geroux worked his magic on Ete Indien last week so Biancone will boost him aboard this one this week. ML fave at 2-1 odds.

2 – Spa City: Everyone I know is rooting for Kiaran McLaughlin as he transitions away from his role as trainer to that of jockey agent. Spa City is a nice horse, and I wish I could pick him to win. At least I have him hitting the superfecta at odds of 10-1.

San Felipe G2 – 1-1/16 miles at Santa Anita Picks: 5-4-2-6

5 – Thousand Words: I’m bucking the trend and taking the “other” Baffert entry. It’s hard to imagine how an undefeated three-year-old can own two graded stakes wins and a perfect record and be the second choice on the morning line. His odds at 9-5 don’t offer great value, but I’m picking this guy who gets it done without impressing anyone. Oh, by the way, he’s a son of Pioneer of the Nile (sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.)

4 – Authentic: This is the second half of the Baffert pair. Visually impressive in both his maiden win and his romp in the G3 Sham, this son of Into Mischief is on about every handicapper’s top contender list. Until he beats Thousand Words, I’m keeping at number two in Baffert’s barn.

2 – Honor A.P.: Another by Honor Code, this colt broke his maiden last out for veteran handler John Shirreffs (Zenyatta). Mike Smith, who no longer rides for Baffert, has this mount. You can bet he would love to spring the upset in this race. Honor A.P. comes off the bench, having last raced in October. Shireffs is good at getting one ready under those circumstances.

6 – Storm the Court: He was the surprise winner of the BC Juvenile on this track last November at odds of 45-1. Peter Eurton has worked him back slowly this year, entering only one time thus far in the G2 San Vincente at the distance of 7 furlongs. He was competitive in that race, and is fourth choice on the ML odds at 5-1.