Louisiana Derby Day – March 21st at Fair Grounds; Full Card Selections

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —-

Each day the number of races to watch and wager on shrinks. Handicappers have more time on their hands than anyone could have imagined. Hoping that the full card for Louisiana Derby Day survives through Saturday, here are one guy’s picks for the first eight races, plus the picks and comments for the final four races which are graded stakes contests.

A smart person should read the following comments for races 9-12. Those words may be a tipoff that this handicapper’s advice is too shaky to inform wagers made with your money. If that commentary survives scrutiny, then one can consider the other suggestions for races 1-8.

Good luck and good health to all!

Race 9 – New Orleans Classic (G2) – 1-1/8 miles on dirt for 4yos and up Picks: 8-9-6-1

Silver Dust (6) is the 2-1 ML favorite. He’s very good at FG, but he also is winless in four tries at 9 furlongs. He comes into this race off a win the G3 Mineshaft last month. He’ll run his race, but his stablemate might just be better.

That stablemate, By My Standards (8), ran in the Kentucky Derby last year for trainer Bret Calhoun. He spent a long time on the bench after the Derby, but returned to action in February winning a OC/40k route race by open lengths. This race may be his chance to become the number one older horse in Calhoun’s barn. You won’t get his ML odds of 6-1 when the gate opens, but he could still offer value.

Gun It (9) was runner-up in the Mineshaft to Silver Dust. He’s won more minor awards than top ones, and that’s where he most likely fits in this race. Asmussen’s go-to-guy, Ricardo Santana, Jr., will be aboard at odds of 6-1.

Lone Sailor (1) has won more than a million dollars for GMB Racing and trainer Tom Amoss. He’s a hard-knocking competitor that finished sixth in this race last year. Minor award here.

Race 10 – Muniz Memorial Classic G2 – 1-1/8 miles on turf Picks: 8-4-9-12

Channel Maker (8) has run in the past two BC Turf Classics. He’s faced many of the best turf runners during his career, and occasionally his connections find a spot where he has a shot to win. This is one of those spots. This will be the second start for this Mott trainee this year. There are no standouts in this field, so Channel Maker at odds anywhere close to his ML of 6-1 could be a value play.

If you really want to roll the dice on both the unknown and on value, Rockemperor (4) is the way to go. This 4yo Euro import makes his third start for Chad Brown. He was good enough to run in G1 company in France, so his connections think highly of him. Could be a coming out party. Value is there at 10-1.

Factor This (9) was a G3 winner last out on this turf circuit at this distance. Brad Cox has emerged as a top trainer so his horses deserve serious consideration. This Factor wins in gate-to-wire fashion, but that will be a tough task in this race if Channel Maker applies pressure.

Synchrony (12) finished second to Factor This last out. He just won’t get the trip he got in that race given his post position. He may be as good as any n this field, but others will get the jump on him down the stretch.

Race 11 – Fair Grounds Oaks G2 – 1-1/16 miles for 3yo F-M Picks: 6-4-1-3

This is the one race in this sequence that has a prohibitive favorite in Finite (6). This Asmussen trainee looks much the best to me and deserving of her 3-5 ML odds. She’s won five straight races, including her last one at this distance.

Bonny South (4), trained by Brad Cox, steps up in class and enters graded stakes company for the first time. This distance should suit her well. The ML is 4-1.

Antoinette (1) ships in from Aqueduct for trainer Bill Mott. She broke her maiden on turf, but then won an off-the-turf 8-furlong listed stakes race. Value at 12-1.

Tempers Rising (3) finished a well-beaten fourth behind Finite in the Rachel Alexandra last out, but she also just missed against that one in mid-January. She certainly fits here for a small piece at ML odds of 9-2.

Race 12 – Louisiana Derby G2 – 1-3/16 miles for 3yo on dirt Picks: 4-10-8-3

It is possible that the speed of the speed will get on the lead with little pressure from others and take them all the way. Under that scenario, the pick would be Wells Bayou (3). He tried that approach in the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn, and he was caught only by Silver Prospector in that race. That one’s poor showing in the G2 Rebel last week does not flatter Wells Bayou. I think he gets the lead, but I also think he gets caught.

Chestertown (4) is a NY-bred son of Tapit that has advanced slowly to this point. This will be his first stakes race, and he’s been substantially dismissed on the ML at odds of 15-1. He gets John Velazquez aboard, and if the veteran can keep him out of traffic and close enough to the leaders he could spring the upset at long odds.

Royal Act (8) is another upset possibility. He should be in the second cluster of runners, relatively close to the lead. Like many of the California horses trained by someone other than Bob Baffert, it is hard to figure out which ones are good and which are just flattered by proximity to Baffert’s bunch. He’s 10-1 on the ML and could go higher.

Enforceable (10) is the tepid ML favorite at odds of 7-2. He was second to Mr. Monomoy in the faster of the two heats of the Risen Star and before that he won the G3 Lecomte. He came from far off the pace in both of those races, and he should get a similar pace to attack in this race. These types are often vulnerable to pace pressers that get first jump and avoid traffic jams that the deep closers encounter.

Picks for Full Card

Race 12: 4-10-8-3