Handicapping: Keeneland Opening Day; Full-Card Selections

By Matt Pappis
Tracksideview Staff Writer —-

KEENELAND

Race 1) and 3) – 4.5 furlong juvenile races; Wesley Ward owns these races 1 (2) and race 3 (8), his last 5 years at Keeneland he is 26-55 for a 47% win percentage with 1st time starters in these sprints at the maiden special weight level. He has $2.08 ROI; he owns both entries and I’m hearing the one in the first is a monster, expecting 2/5 M/L.

Race 2 – Don’t love the fave’s or the race in general but will give a shot to the 3 Remanded but 2,6 tough.

Race 4 – The 4 won very nicely first out and will be tough right back.

Race 5 – 9-1-7-2

Race 6 – There’s a lot of steam in this race on the FTS #3 but the inside posts aren’t ideal at 6.5 or 7 furlongs at Keeneland and the trainer is 6% from Penn National; will spread out to start pick 5 with 1,2,3,6,8,10,12 and 13 if draws in. Watch the board; with exotics not many places the money is sharper than Keeneland. 2-6-12-3-1

Race 7 – The 8 will be a single for me on 75% tickets; Wesley Ward fresh with the class of the race and good post. For some prices (7) they tried to get on turf a few times and kept getting rained off. (5) first time turf ran well on synthetic and 2 who has kept good company.

Race 8 – The 3 Farsighted won very nicely in a deep field off a long layoff which trainer Rusty Arnold doesn’t do, this is a nice one and will likely get forgotten in the betting with the 2 coming out of the most live maiden race at Gulfstream all winter. Second place came back to win for fun and going to the Ashland and the horse behind her won Sunday easily as well. 3-2-5-7

Race 9 – Another potential single with Scarlet Sky (1) only out of the exacta once and just was defeated by Annex who came back to win his second stake now 3/3 lifetime. The main danger is Fire at Will (4) who won the BC Juvenile turf but an angle I like is when they try dirt or turf and it doesn’t work it messes with young horses I’ll single the 1 on 75% of tickets and save with the 4 and 2. 1-4-2

Race 10 – The 7 comes out of the same maiden race as Slumber Party (race 8) and will never be 10/1, that’s an idiotic morning line; Other than that would like to close pick 5 with many here 1-3-4-5-7-9 all with a shot.

Cover Photo provided by Keeneland