View From the Grandstand: Kentucky Derby Selections

View From the Grandstand Selections

Bob Hill, TSV Feature Writer —-

One’s opinion on the 2021 Kentucky Derby has to start with what position to take on Essential Quality (14). The options are to think he’s by far the best and worthy of keying all bets off of him, or one of the best in a relatively small group to build spread tickets around, or vulnerable to the point of being willing to play against him completely. I’m taking middle ground on Essential Quality in that I can see some scenarios where he wins, but I will key the majority of my best elsewhere and include him in some wagers that I’ll view as saver-bets.

My top two picks in this race are Hot Rod Charlie (9) and Rock Your World (15). The defection of Caddo River alters the pace scenario and probably benefits several horses in this field. In addition to the three horses that I’ve named, I also believe Known Agenda (1) is a possible winner if Irad Ortiz can work out a trip from the rail. That’s as deep as I’ll go on possible winners.

I see Midnight Bourbon (10) as the major value play in this field if his odds stay anywhere close to his 20-1 ML. He’s the son of Curlin, trained by Eclipse Award winner Brad Cox, and he’s never been off the board. If he is 20-1 at race time I will bet him across the board. Other value plays that I’m excited to play are O Besos (6) and King Fury (16). Both will do their best running late and could add value to exotic tickets.

I’m taking Bob Baffert at his word when he says Medina Spirit (8) is a top ten horse, but not a top five horse. I’ll play him only at the bottom of trifectas. Highly Motivated (17) got a dream trip in the Blue Grass and still did not beat Essential Quality. The bottom of trifecta bets are where he fits for me. Others in this category for me include Dynamic One (11), Super Stock (18), and Mandaloun (7). The only 50-1 shot may include is Brooklyn Strong (3).

That means I have tossed Like the King (2), Keepmeinmind (4) Sainthood (5), Helium (12), Hidden Stash (13), Soup and Sandwich (19), and Bourbonic (20).

My picks then look like 9-15-14-6-10-1.

My key trifecta ticket will be 9,15 with 1,6,9,10,14,15,16 with 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,15,16,17,18. That $132 for a buck or half that for $.50.