Correll’s 147th Kentucky Derby Play: Trifectas

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
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Essential Quality was made the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the 147th Kentucky Derby on May 1 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

That may not be a good thing for a couple of reasons. First, nobody likes to bet a favorite at short odds and second, I’m not sure he should be the favorite.

Of the last nine major prep races leading up to this year’s Derby, the favorite was beaten eight times. The only colt to win its last prep was Essential Quality and he had to work to beat Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass. I’m sure trainer Brad Cox wanted to get a good race into Essential Quality but I don’t know if he wanted him to work that hard.

I also don’t think Essential Quality has gotten any better then he was as a 2-year-old. He has yet to run a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. Only one horse in the field has run a triple-digit figure and that is Rock Your World in winning the Santa Anita Derby.

I think anyone of nine horses could win the Derby, but I’m not really sold on any of them.

My horse was Concert Tour, but he flopped in the Arkansas Derby. It only was his third lifetime start and that may have caught up with him. Trainer Bob Baffert decided to pass on the Derby and bring him back in the Preakness.

Besides Essential Quality (post 14) and Rock Your World (15), the other seven that have a chance are: Known Agenda (1), won the Florida Derby; Hot Rod Charlie (9), won Louisiana Derby; Super Stock (18), won Arkansas Derby; Highly Motivated (17), second in Blue Grass; Soup and Sandwich (19), second in Florida Derby; Medina Spirit (8), second in Santa Anita Derby; and Midnight Bourbon (19), second in Louisiana Derby.

Can any of the other colts win the race? Sure, anything can happen and the Derby sometimes is more about the trip the horse gets then the horse. You also don’t know how much some of the colts have grown since their last races, which could have been three to five weeks ago.

Of the nine colts that I think can win the race only Known Agenda drew poorly by getting the one-hole. Since Churchill Downs went to the new starting gate last year, the one-hole isn’t as bad as it used to be. The gate will be out farther from the rail and the jockey in that post can at least see all the way down the stretch. The old gate was positioned in such a way he couldn’t.

I would just try to make money on this race. I would play a trifecta wheel or key like this:

9,14,15,17

(over the) 8,9,10,14,15,17

(over the) 1,8,9,10,14,15,17,18,19

If played for a $1 the ticket would cost $140; played for 50 cents it would cost $70.

Good luck!