Pimlico Graded Stakes Picks: Preakness Day 2021

Medina Spirit; Skip Dickstein Photo

Pimlico Graded Stakes Picks

Preakness Day 2021

by Bob Hill, TSV writer

Preakness Day finds five graded stakes races for thoroughbreds and a bonus one for Arabians on its 14-race card. With all due respect to knowing my place, I’ll offer my opinions on the thoroughbreds and leave the Arabians to someone else who knows much more about them than I do. Good luck to all on what should be a great day for betting all types of wagers.

Race 3 – Chick Lang G3 – 6 furlongs for 3yos

This looks to be a race between three of the six entries. Mighty Mischief (2) is the “other” Asmussen entry here behind stablemate Jaxon Traveler (4). The latter got to the track as a 2yo last year breaking his maiden at Pimlico. He’s gone on to post four wins in five tries while suffering his only loss by a head in a listed stakes at Oaklawn Park in March. Irad Ortiz gets the mount, and it’s hard to see how experience does not reign. Mighty Mischief actually shows slightly faster opening splits in his races this winter and spring, so he should make the lead with a decent break. Santana will be his pilot. The third contender is Willy Boi (6) for handler Jeff Engler. He wintered in Florida, winning three of four sprint races. His one try in a route race was a flop in the G3 Holy Bull. Johnny V. gets aboard for this one who has enough early speed to sit just off the Asmussen pair. Picks: 4-2-6-3

Race 6 – Gallorette G3 – 1-1/16 miles on turf for F-M 3yo and up

Mean Mary (5) owns both a class edge and dominating numbers when compared to the other five in this field. I tried to talk myself in taking a shot to beat her off the bench with Feel Glorious (6), a talented mare in her own right. The racing form, however, reveals that Mean Mary dusted her under similar circumstances 11 months ago. I am intrigued by Flighty Lady (4), a relatively new shooter to the barn of Chad Brown. She raced for Jean-Claude Rouget in France the past two years, but moved to Brown’s care this spring. She won a first level allowance race at Aqueduct last month, and she was Group 1 placed at Longchamp. She may be the one to take a shot with to beat Mean Mary, but I’d suggest a backup plan if you do. Vigilantes Way (1) has shown glimpses of promise for Shug McGaughey in lesser company. Tuned (8) is a late closer trained by Graham Motion that typically contends for the bottom spots in trifectas and superfectas. Picks: 3-5-6-1

Race 11 – Maryland Sprint G3 – 6 furlongs for 3yo and up

I may hit the “All” button in this race when I play it in the Pick 4. I’ve look for every angle between a short-odds standout to a long-odds value play, and I’m sad to report I found none. I am recommending Laki (1) as my top pick. Over a long career he has shown versatility, and his last effort was quite good indicating that the 8yo gelding is in good form. There are numerous entries in this race that look like they will want to be on or near the lead. We know they cannot do that, so we started looking for one that is adaptable. That’s where I landed on Laki. Strike Power (5) is the tepid 7-2 ML favorite. He just ran a great race against C Z Rocket and Whitmore, and the third place finisher in that race already came back to win. Lots of arrows point toward Strike Power, but so does the caution sign that says six-furlongs is not an overly productive distance for him win-wise. Breezy Gust (7) is a hot horse that is winning frequently at Parx in gate-to-wire fashion. Rosario gets the ride, so I cannot blame you if you like him. I just wonder what a need-the-lead type will do if he does not get the lead – a doubtful circumstance in my opinion. Special Reserve (8) exits the G3 Commonwealth run at Keeneland last month. He led that 7-furlong contest from the gate to near the wire where he was headed by Flagstaff. He has won when not making the lead, so he was first runner-up in my search for a top pick. Seven Nation Army (11) is one to add to your ticket, and I would rank him higher if he were not drawn to the far outside. Picks: 18-5-11-7

Race 12 – Dinner Party G2 – 1-1/16 miles on turf for 3yo and up

This will be the second start of 2021 for Sacred Life (5). He finished a decent third in the G1 Makers Mark Mile last out but will not face as tough a group her in the Dinner Party. The Castellano- Brown connection will solidify the likelihood of even shorter odds at race time. Chad Brown has another in this race; one making only his fourth lifetime start. Irish-bred Kuramata (3) made one start in Great Britain two years ago before moving to Brown’s care. He owns wins in a MSW and first level allowance race this winter and spring. I’m sure his connections will be happy if he competes with this bunch. Somelikeithotbrown (1) is a name that anyone from Lexington has to love – just like they love a “hot brown.” He, too, ran in the Makers Mark Mile, fading to seventh after contesting the lead for six furlongs. He may not be pressed too hard in this race to make the front, so he may hang around longer. He was the runner-up in this race last fall. Midnight Tea Time (4) makes a living on minor awards so he’s worth a look, as is Bye Bye Martin (8). If you’re playing a trifecta or superfecta you will also want to include Talk Or Listen (6). Picks: 5-1-3-4-6

Race 13 – Preakness Stakes G1 – 1-3/16 miles for 3yo

Being generous, this is a three horse race between Baffert’s pair and Midnight Bourbon (5). I’ve liked Midnight Bourbon all spring, and I really think he lost a place or two in the final results of the Derby because of missing the break. He has the tactical speed to hang as close to the likely front-running pair in this race as Ortiz chooses to put him. Unless Mike Smith and Johnny V. blunder up front by going too fast, however, I do not think Midnight Bourbon can or will catch both of them. He could pass one of them, which is an angle I’ll play. I’ve also thought that Concert Tour (10) is better than Medina Spirit (3) prior to the Derby. Medina Spirit showed us all a lot of grit in that race, so how do I land on Concert Tour as my top pick here? He will be the outside horse as these two duel, and all things being equal that’s the slim angle on which I’ll rely. So, now all I need to do is figure out which of the others to play in fourth place. Keepmeinmind (2) is one that does all his running at the end, which is the kind of horse we all like to play in a tri or super. I expect Risk Taking (9) to be better odds than Crowded Trade (4) at much better odds so I prefer to put him in the mix. Unbridled Honor (8) also fits in a bottom slot. Picks: 10-5-3-9-4

Cover Photo: Medina Spirit; Skip Dickstein Photo