Memorial Day Picks: Penn Mile G2, Regret G3, Matt Winn G3, Pennine Ridge G2

By Bob Hill,
TSV staff writer —-

There’s an almost limitless opportunity to play stakes races over the Memorial Day weekend, starting on Friday and ending on Monday. In this article, we offer up picks in four stakes races that will be run in the Eastern Time Zone early in the weekend. Check other articles on TSV for picks of races are at other venues for the long weekend of thoroughbred racing.

Penn Mile (G2) at Penn National – 1 mile on turf for 3yos

This field of seven 3yo colts presents some interesting handicapping challenges. At first glance, Outadore (7) and Annex (3) show successful running lines that temp us to dismiss the race as a two-horse affair. Further exploration, however, reveals a very interesting 5-1 shot in Chess’s Dream (4), a very competitive Original (2), and two first-time-turf starters that fit in this company quite well.

Gershwin (1) is a Godolphin home-bred that has been rained off the grass twice. He shows strong pedigree and good tactical speed for the respected Michael Stidham. Sibelius (6) broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt last out at Keeneland and joins Gershwin in a first grass try. Either could outrun generous odds.

Original is the likely pace setter in this eight-furlong contest. Outadore most likely will press close to the pace, so expect him to be challenging for top position by the final turn for home. Annex and Chess’s Dream should be revved up at this point and moving into contention with their strong closing kicks.

Mott has added blinkers to Annex following his disappointing American Turf try on the Derby undercard earlier this month. I’m betting those blinkers do the trick so that Annex catches Outadore by the wire. Picks: 3-4-7-1

Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs – 1-1/8 miles on turf for 3yo fillies

This race will boil down to which of these fillies gets the trip needed to win. Spanish Loveaffair (4) deserves her 5-2 ML favoritism, but she is by no means a lock for the win. Flown (8) and Saranya (9) exit the same race as Spanish Loveaffair, the Appalachian (G2). Saranya finished fourth in that race, just ahead of Flown. Spanish LoveAffair was three lengths back in sixth.

Oyster Box (1) should like the added distance of the Regret after a decent try last out at Aqueduct for Graham Motion. He has gone slowly with this daughter of Tapit out of the Dynaformer mare Starformer. I look for her to move forward here. Another I like is Gam’s Mission (7), trained by Cherie DeVaux who is knocking on the door for her first graded stakes win. Gam’s Mission is on a two race win streak.

I’m going to take a shot with the Cox-Geroux connections on Saranya for the win, and pair her with Oyster Box in the exacta. This is a great betting race so have some fun with it. Picks: 9-1-4-8-7

Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs – 1-1/16 miles for 3yos

The interest in this race is focused on two colts exiting the Kentucky Derby, Helium (2) and O Besos (3). Both acquitted themselves quite well that day, but questions about their chances of winning this race are plentiful even though the field is almost devoid of actual horseracing talent.

If one set out to beat the two favorites who are exiting the Derby, he would arrive at Fulsome (5), Game Day Play (8), and Ready to Pounce (1) as “logical” alternatives. However, I would urge caution about both the horses coming in here out of the Oaklawn Stakes run on May 1. The competition was weak in that poorly run race. Ready to Pounce looks tempting beBy Bob Hill, TSV staff writer

There’s an almost limitless opportunity to play stakes races over the Memorial Day weekend, starting on Friday and ending on Monday. In this article, we offer up picks in four stakes races that will be run in the Eastern Time Zone early in the weekend. Check other articles on TSV for picks of races are at other venues for the long weekend of thoroughbred racing.

Pennine Ridge (G2) at Belmont – 1-1/8 miles on turf for 3yos

The Pennine comes up intriguing and tough. The first big question we may get answered is, “How good is Sainthood (5) on turf?” You’ll remember that his Kentucky Derby ticket was punched on the synthetic main track at Turfway, and then we heard several weeks of commentary about how he is indeed a grass horse. I’m going to pick him to win this race just in case he is destined for stardom on turf. If he’s not, I’ll get my lesson early.

Hard Love (4) is 9-5 on the ML for the Jonathon Thomas-trained son of Kitten’s Joy. He owns two wins and a place in three career starts. If he follows past form, he will race just off the pace. Public Sector (7) is a highly regarded Chad Brown trainee. This is his second start off a long layoff, which is a 30% win angle for Brown. We will not get his 9-2 ML odds at post time. Safe Conduct (8) beat Public Sector last out in a very nice run here four weeks ago. He’s 6-1 on the ML.

Others to consider at the bottom of exotics are Step Dancer (2) and Shaftesbury (3). This will be Step Dancer’s third start off the long winter layoff, and he needs to step it up to regain his place among these types. Shaftesbury is Pletcher’s other horse besides Sainthood. After three consecutive second place finishes he finally broke his maiden last out on the Belmont turf course. He’s a son of Uncle Mo out of Lemon Drop Kid mare, so he is definitely bred for the grass. Picks: 5-7-4-3