Belmont Day Full-Card Selections

By Bob Hill,
TSV Feature Writer —-

This card is loaded with top talent and difficult handicapping challenges. The racing should be exciting on a day with a dry and warm weather forecast.

Race 1 – MSW for 2yos – The Pletcher entries (2 and 4), plus the once-raced Rodriguez colt (3) will take most of the money in this race. Delaware invader Too Much Action (8) offers value and shows decent works if you’re inclined to take a shot. Slot him into your play as you choose. Picks: 4-8-3-2

Race 2 – MSW for 3yos and up – I see at least six win contenders in this wide-open 7 furlong turf race. Ranger Fox (8) just missed last time out, and with a ML of 9-2 attracts my attention for top spot. Mott first time starter Migrate (4) looks to be one he is getting ready to win now. Chad Brown’s pair (1 and 6) will take a lot of the action, too. James Jerkens entry (7) and Mach One (10) are others of note. Picks: 8-4-1-6

Race 3 – Woody Stephens G1 — Jackie’s Warrior (3) and Dream Shake (4) battled to the wire in the Pat Day mile and could do so again here at 7 furlongs. Drain the Clock (2) owns two G3 wins at the distance. Brad Cox appears to have settled on Caddo River sprinting, but he’s up against given the speed of Jackie’s Warrior. Nova Rags (1) turns back from 9 furlongs to 7 and should make his move late. Picks: 3-4-1-6

Race 4 – Brooklyn G2 – When the ML favorite is 7-2 you know that a race is competitive. These 1-1/2 mile marathons are often hard to figure and can spurn upsets. Had the track come up wet I would have gravitated to Musical Heat (5) and Moretti (4), but with dry conditions forecast I like the outside duo better. Tizamagician (8) is that 7-2 ML favorite. Lone Rock (9) has won 2 of 3 tries at the distance. Bettors will see that 99 Beyer fig for Ajaaweed (7) and want to bet him, especially with the Johnny V/Pletcher connections. I’m going elsewhere. Ry’s the Guy (2) does his best work at these long distances so he’s worth a spot at odds of 12-1. Picks: 8-9-2-6

Race 5 –Acorn G1 – Search Results (6) only loss was to Malathaat in the Kentucky Oaks. With the turn back in distance to the flat mile she faces a different group than the one she saw in the Oaks. Obligatory (2) won the 8 Belles sprinting 7 furlongs on the Oaks undercard, so this is a stretch out in distance for her. Travel Column (1) set the pace in the Oaks before giving way in the stretch. Miss Brazil (3) is another that has sprinted in 4 of her 5 starts. She lost by a half length to Search Result at this distance at Aqueduct in April. Dayoutoftheoffice (4) won the G1 Frizette at this distance last fall. The outcome of this race will depend on which fillies get which trip. Picks: 6-4-2-3

Race 6 – Jaipur G1 – Wesley Ward certainly picks his spot for Bound for Nowhere (6). He owns the lightly raced 7yo, winner of just under a million dollars. He almost always races off a layoff, so concern for that factor is minimal. The work tab is solid, so it looks to me that others in here
have their work cut out for them. Oleksandra (9) won this race last summer at odds of 5-2, but he has shown almost nothing since then. His ML odds are an inviting 15-1. The mare Got Stormy (11) is the most decorated veteran in this field, but her last effort at a flat mile was disappointing. Fast Boat (4) enters with a two race winning streak for Joe Sharp and yet offers enticing odds of 5-1. Casa Creed (2) races for the first time at a distance of 6f, cutting back another furlong from her last out win on this track in April. His 8-1 odds also are inviting. Picks: 6-2-11-4

Race 7 – Ogden Phipps G1 – Letruska (3) has replaced Monomoy Girl atop the Distaff rankings after winning the G1 Apple Blossom. Her only recent loss was to Shedaresthedevil (5). Then there is last year’s Preakness Winner Swiss Skydiver (1) in this field, along with Valiance (2), the runner-up to Monomoy Girl in the BC Distaff last fall. This is her first start since then. Bonny South (7), the other Brad Cox entry is quite capable of hitting the board, as all. A win by any of these will not surprise anyone. I’m giving my selections minus any mention of Letruska. Fit her in depending on your judgment of how good she has become. Picks: 5-1-7-2 and Letruska.

Race 8 – Just A Game G1 – This is an All button play in the P4 or P5. Sorting this out to a single winner should provide a just reward for the handicapper who can do so. Blow Out (11) is the 4-1 favorite on the ML, but she finishes second at a rate almost twice that of her wins, so that fact invites us to look elsewhere for value. I think Pocket Square (6), like Blow Out trained by Chad Brown, could be the one, but we’ll have to watch the tote to see what happens there. Zofelle (1) just missed on Derby Day, but her form is good and the price is tempting at 8-1. Charlie Appleby’s pair of Godolphin shippers look solid. Summer Romance (9) is forwardly placed in most of her races, while Althiqa (8) comes from off the pace. Sweet Bye and Bye (2) competed in NY with Blowout last fall, and she offers three times the value. Picks: 6-11-2-1-8

Race 9 – Metropolitan Handicap G1 – Your opinion of this race will rest on your view of horses returning from racing in the Mideast. A decade ago, a number of very good horses did not race well in their first try back in the U.S. Knicks Go (6) is such a horse in this race. The winner of last year’s BC Mile has romped in the U. S. for more than a year. Unless you believe he’ll need a race to re-acclimate to running at home, it would be hard to bet against him. If you are in that camp, you have three clear choices in Mischevious Alex (1), Dr Post (2), and Silver State (3). By My Standards (5) skipped the Steve Sexton Mile last weekend to come here, and I see him as a live long shot at 10-1. I’m going to pair Dr Post and By My Standards and hope that Knicks Go needs one. Picks: 2-5-1-6-3

Race 10 – Manhattan G1 – Domestic Spending (4) and Colonel Liam finished (10) in a dead heat here last month in the G 1 Man O War. They’re joined in this field by Gufo (9), one that has competed well with Domestic Spending. Chad Brown has three others as well; Master Piece (5), Rockemperor (6), and Tribhuyan (8). The latter is running as well as he has ever run. Picks: 4-8-10-9-6

Race 11 – Belmont G1 – I’ll stick with my Derby picks which were Rock Your World (7) and Hot Rod Charlie (4). About everyone agrees that RYW will be on or near the lead. They are less certain about how close to that pace Hot Rod will choose to be. Essential Quality (2) should get a pocket trip, and if he’s good enough the race should set up for him and for Rombauer (3). Todd Pletcher believes Known Agenda (6) is sitting on a big race. Overtook (8)is the new shooter, and if I were to play a long shot on my ticket he is the one I’d choose. Picks: 7-4-2-6

Race 12 – ALW for NY bred fillies and mares – I see five contenders for top spot in this one mile turf allowance race. Spungie (3) is trained by Bill Mott. She enters off her maiden win. My Lips Are Sealed (11) is a George Weaver trainee that won a restricted allowance race last month on this course. Runaway Rumor (2) is another facing winners for the first time. English Breeze (5) has been racing at these conditions this year, and the last two tries suggest that she is a contender with slight improvement. The paired entry of More Glitter (1) and Big Time Lady (1a) have top connections, but their performances say they’ll have to step it up to compete. Picks: 3-11-1a-5-2

Race 13 – OC/80k/N2X for 3yos and up– The paired entry of Price Talk (1) and Value Engineering (1a) is the 5-2 ML favorite. Off odds will undoubtedly go lower. The pair will be tough, but there a couple with a chance to beat them. Microsecond (3) just missed at these conditions last out for Todd Pletcher. Hard Love (2) drops in class from a listed stakes race which he won at Aqueduct in April, and he gets first-time Lasix. He also owns a win on the Belmont grass last fall. Opry (9) is yet another Pletcher entry who fits with this bunch and offers tempting odds of 8-1. Picks: 1a-3-2-9