Epicenter heads Correll’s Derby Contenders

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —

With a little less than four weeks to the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., it’s time for me to list the colts I see as the top contenders.

Depending on which colts make it into the starting gate on the “First Saturday in May,” we could see some blazing early fractions. But I will get into the structure of the race as we get closer to the “Run for the Roses.”

Here are the colts I see as the top choices:

Epicenter (Not this Time) won the Louisiana Derby with 102 Beyer speed figure. The Louisiana Derby was a mile-and-three-sixteenths race. He’s run the longest of any contenders. Probably will be the morning line favorite and he could be part of the speed.

White Abarrio (Race Day) won the Florida Derby with a 96 Beyer and will be sitting off the speed.

Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) won the Wood Memorial to stamp his ticket for the Derby. This guy will stalk and close at the end. Distance will not be a problem.

Zandon (Upstart) won the Blue Grass after somewhat of a tough trip. He got out late to run down highly regarded Smile Happy. He’ll be coming late.

Taiba (Gun Runner) upset the apple cart in the Santa Anita Derby when he beat both Forbidden Kingdom and Messier. The Santa Anita Derby was only his second lifetime start. Taiba is owned by the same group that campaigned last year’s Derby winner, the ill-fated Medina Spirit.

Cyberknife (Gun Runner) won the Arkansas Derby after a pace meltdown. Something like that could happen in the Derby.

Messier (Empire Maker) was rundown in the Santa Anita Derby by his stablemate Taiba. He hadn’t raced in two months, so that may have had something to do with it.

Early Voting (Gun Runner) couldn’t hold off Mo Donegal in the Wood. He also hadn’t run in two months.

Smile Happy (Run Happy) has run second in his last two races, including the Blue Grass. Maybe he hasn’t grown as a 3-year-old.

Charge It (Tapit) was coming late in the Florida Derby but ran out of ground. He’ll get another eighth of a mile in the Derby.

That’s 10 colts, but I’ll add a few more until we know which ones are getting into the race.

Forbidden Kingdom (more speed), Classic Causeway (speed, but not that fast), Morello (got off to a bad start in the Wood and that was his undoing), Un Ojo (got bounced around in the Arkansas Derby and has the cuts on his shoulder to prove it), Zozos (nice second to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby), Barber Road (was running late in Arkansas and would be good for underneath bets), Simplification (third in the Florida Derby), Tiz the Bomb (won the Jeff Ruby at Turfway on synthetic, but those types run well at Churchill) and Emmanuel (looked good until the eighth pole in the Blue Grass).