Little change in Correll’s top Derby contenders

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —-

The Stonestreet Lexington, the last 3-year-old prep race to offer qualifying points for the 148th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, was run April 16 at Keeneland and nothing happened to change my mind about the top contenders in the “Run for the Roses” on May 7.

Tawny Port won the mile-and-a-sixteenth race in a slow time of 1:45.24. The son of Pioneer of the Nile sits 19th on the Derby list after picking up 20 points for winning the Lexington.

As of this writing, there have been several defections including Forbidden Kingdom, Classic Causeway and Slow Down Andy. The loss of Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway takes a lot of the early speed out of the race, but it’s still too soon to figure out the race shape.

Here are the colts I see as the top choices:

Epicenter (Not this Time) won the Louisiana Derby with 102 Beyer speed figure. The Louisiana Derby was a mile-and-three-sixteenth race. He’s run the longest of any contenders. Probably will be the morning line favorite and he could be part of the speed.

White Abarrio (Race Day) won the Florida Derby with a 96 Beyer and will be sitting off the speed.

Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) won the Wood Memorial to stamp his ticket for the Derby. This guy will stalk and close at the end. Distance will not be a problem.

Zandon (Upstart) won the Blue Grass after somewhat of a tough trip. He got out late to run down highly regarded Smile Happy. He’ll be coming late.

Taiba (Gun Runner) upset the apple cart in the Santa Anita Derby when he beat both Forbidden Kingdom and Messier. The Santa Anita Derby was only his second lifetime start and he got a 102 Beyer for his effort. Taiba is owned by the same group that campaigned last year’s Derby winner, the ill-fated Medina Spirit.

Cyberknife (Gun Runner) won the Arkansas Derby after a pace meltdown. Something like that could happen in the Derby.

Messier (Empire Maker) was rundown in the Santa Anita Derby by his stablemate Taiba. He hadn’t raced in two months, so that may have had something to do with it.

Early Voting (Gun Runner) couldn’t hold off Mo Donegal in the Wood. He also hadn’t run in two months.

Smile Happy (Run Happy) has run second in his last two races, including the Blue Grass. Maybe he hasn’t grown as a 3-year-old.

Charge It (Tapit) was coming late in the Florida Derby but ran out of ground. He’ll get another eighth of a mile in the Derby.

That’s 10 colts, but I’ll add a few more until we know which ones are getting into the race.

Morello (got off to a bad start in the Wood and that was his undoing), Un Ojo (got bounced around in the Arkansas Derby and has the cuts on his shoulder to prove it), Zozos (nice second to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby), Barber Road (was running late in Arkansas and would be good for underneath bets), Simplification (third in the Florida Derby), Tiz the Bomb (won the Jeff Ruby at Turfway on synthetic, but those types run well at Churchill) and Emmanuel (looked good until the eighth pole in the Blue Grass).