148TH KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS

By Bob Hill
TSV Feature Writer —-

Kentucky Derby post positions were drawn on Monday, and the field is set for the 148th Run for the Roses. As always, the Derby is the penultimate handicapping challenge. Here’s wishing good luck to all.

1 – Mo Donegal (10-1) – trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz. Sire: Uncle Mo. Dam: Callingmissbrown. Dam Sire: Pulpit. The rail draw should be no problem for this late closer. If he gets to the three-eighths pole with room to roll he will be dangerous at decent odds. Win Contender

2 – Happy Jack (30-1) – trained by Doug O’Neill and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Sire: Oxbow. Dam: Tapestry. Dam Sire: Tapit. Has lost by a combined 49 lengths in three races since his maiden win. Toss

3 – Epicenter (7-2) – trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Joeal Rosario. Sire: Not This Time. Dam: Silent Candy. Dam Sire: Candy Ride. Second favorite on the morning line will have to get away well at the break with Summer Is Tomorrow and Messier to his outside. Possessing the tactical speed to do so, he should be well placed just behind the early pace setters. All systems appear to be go for the one that I believe is the Likely Winner.

4 – Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1) – trained by Brehat Seemar and ridden by Mickael Barzalona. Sire: Summer Front. Dam: Always Tomorrow. Dam Sire: Badge of Silver. He carried his speed to the eighth pole in the 1-3/16 mile UAE Derby putting up competitive, but not eye-popping fractions. He was passed and beaten by Crown Pride at that point and finished second. It would be very interesting if his connections try to make the lead from inside of Epicenter and Messier. Such a scenario could make the opening fractions faster than some would like. I think his presence helps the deep closers. I don’t think he’ll last 10 furlongs though. Toss.

5 – Smile Happy (20-1) – trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Corey Lanerie. Sire: Runhappy. Dam: Pleasant Smile. Dam Sire: Pleasant Tap. His races produced second place finishes in both the G2 Louisiana Derby and the G1 Blue Grass. He lost to the two post-time Derby favorites in those races. The pre-race vibes out of Churchill Downs are more negative than positive this week. At odds of 20-1 or more he offers value, but his probable best hope is a small piece at the bottom of Exotics bets.

6 – Messier (8-1) – trained by Tim Yakteen and ridden by John Velasquez. Sire: Empire Maker. Dam: Checkered Past. Dam Sire: Smart Strike. Runner-up in the G1 Santa Anita. I think he will try to make the lead and take them as far as possible. I think he needed his last race, so I can forgive his being passed in the stretch run. I’ve already said that Epicenter is my top pick, but I’ll place my win bet on this guy because of the comparable value. Win Contender.

7 – Crown Pride (20-1) – trained by Koichi Shintani and ridden by Christophe Lemaire. Sire: Reach the Crown. Dam: Emmy’s Pride. Dam Sire: King Kamehameha. Winner of the UAE Derby. His win at Medan could have been timed with a sundial, but his grit is undeniable. His trainer’s unique style has drawn a lot of attention on the backside since his arrival at Churchill. If he wins he’ll beat me, but I will include him on some tickets. Exotics Player.

8 – Charge It (20-1) – trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez. Sire: Tapit. Dam: I’ll Take Charge. Dam Sire: Indian Charlie. 2nd in Florida Derby when running greenly. Has shown good tactical speed, and he has the chance to take a big step forward. His connections are strong so he will take some money, and he’s becoming a bit of a “wise guy” pick. Exotics Player.

9 – Tiz The Bomb – trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez, Jr. Sire: Hit It A Bomb. Dam: Tiz the Key: Dam Sire: Tiznow. The big question about this guy has to do with his ability to run on dirt. It is well known that his connections plan to race him on grass against tough Euro competition. His grand sire War Front produced The Factor and his great grand sire Danzig fathered Hard Spun. Both were very good on dirt. He has worked just fine on the dirt in the morning, but the afternoon is a different set of conditions. I always make on bet on a Longshot just for fun. This is the one in that category for me this year, plus he is an Exotics Player on some tickets.

10 – Zandon (3-1) – trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz. Sire: Upstart. Dam: Memories Prevail. Dam Sire: Creative Cause. Winner of the G1 Bluegrass. He has a real shot at ending the drought for late closers in the Derby. Was made the morning line favorite on Monday. As with all deep closers, his pilot has to avoid traffic and get him in position to roll at the right time. If that happens, watch out. Win Contender

11 – Pioneer of Medina (30-1) – trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Joe Bravo.. Sire: Pioneer of the Nile. Dam: Lights of Medina. Dam Sire: Eskendereya. Pletcher takes the blinkers off, so I wonder if that signals a plan to sit off the pace a little further than in the past. He’s faced strong competition, and he did hit the board in the G2 Louisiana Derby. His ceiling appears to be at the Bottom of the Exotics.

12 – Taiba (12-1) – trained by Tim Yakteen and ridden by Mike Smith. Sire: Gun Runner. Dam: Needmore Flattery. Dam Sire: Flatter. Everyone knows that Yakteen took over training this colt from Bob Baffert. If he wins the Derby, he will be the first to do so in the modern era. He was scintillating in his maiden win and in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. When I’m asked my opinion of this horse, I answer truthfully, “I have no clue.” Because of his connection to Baffert he will take a lot of money. Even the people who don’t like his chances because of his lack of racing experience probably will still play him as a Win Contender on some tickets. I will.

13 – Simplification (20-1) – trained by Antonio Sano and ridden by Jose Ortiz. Sire: Not This Time. Dam: Simply Confection. Dam Sire: Candy Ride. Winner of the Fountain of Youth. Third in the Florida Derby when passed near the wire by Charge It. People smarter than I am keep making excuses for him and singing his praises. I find his race record very confusing. He’s shown three different running styles in seven races. Exotics Player

14 – Barber Road (30-1) – trained by John Ortiz and ridden by Reylu Gutiererez. Sire: Race Day. Dam: Encounter. Dam Sire: Southern Image. Minor awards in the Oaklawn prep races allowed him to accumulate the points to qualify for the Derby. As with any deep closer he needs a clean trip and some racing luck to hit the board. Late pace numbers of others in this field suggest that they will get up before he does. My guess is that his long odds will prompt trifecta and superfecta players to use him underneath. Probably takes a pace meltdown for him to hit the board so I will Toss.

15 – White Abarrio (10-1) – trained by Safie Joseph, Jr. Sire: Race Day. Dam: Catching Diamonds. Dam Sire: Into Mischief. Another who is bred to win at Classic distances, he has impressed in every race he’s run. His trainer has emerged as a top connection in big races, so taking this colt lightly would be a mistake. He fits the profile of recent Derby winners. He’ll have to run faster than he ever has to win this race, but I’d bet his effort is very honest. Exotics Player (all positions)

16 – Cyberknife (20-1) – trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flourent Geroux. Sire: Gun Runner. Dam: Awesome Flower. Dam Sire: Flower Alley. There’s been a ton of buzz about his great workouts at Churchill Downs as he preps for the Derby. He was the upset winner in the G1 Arkansas Derby, a race many think was weaker this year than in the recent past. His speed figure suggest he will have to be much better than ever before to claim one of the top spots. Exotics Player (bottom)

17 – Classic Causeway (30-1) – trained by Brain Lynch and ridden by Julien Leperoux. Sire: Giants Causeway. Dam: Private World. Dam Sire: Thunder Gulch. His top speed figure of 88 in a route race suggests he’s out of his depth in this field. His collapse in the Florida Derby is hard to figure. Toss

18 – Tawny Port (30-1) – trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Ricardo Santana, Jr. Sire: Pioneer of the Nile. Dam: Livi McKenzie. Dam Sire: Macho Uno. Winner of G3 Lexington. Gained entry to the Derby with a second on synthetics in the Jack Ruby Stakes and that win in the Lexington. With a top speed figure of 90 he would have to improve a lot to hit the board. Toss

19 – Zozos (20-1) – trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Manny Franco. Sire. Munnings. Dam: Papa’s Forest. Dam Sire: Forestry. Runner-up in Louisiana Derby. Has raced only three times, so lack of experience is a concern. The good news about his outside draw is that Manny Franco will be able to see things unfolding on the first run past the finish line. If he can avoid being hung out to dry through that first turn he’ll have the speed to make the front pack of runners. His sire was a sprinter, but he already handled the distance of the longest Derby prep race. Exotics Player.

20 – Ethereal Road (30-1) – trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Luis Contreras. Sire: Quality Road. Dam: Sustained. Dam Sire: War Front. It will be fun to have Lukas at the Derby as a trainer. This horse should be 100-1 by post time. Toss