Handicapping Coast to Coast: Fountain of Youth and San Felipe Picks

By Bob Hill, TSV staff writer

Fountain of Youth G2 – 1-1/16 miles – Gulstream race 14

All eyes are on Forte (4) in his return to racing here. The two-year-old Eclipse and BC Juvenile winner makes his first start this year on what his connections expect to include the Triple Crown races this spring and summer. His pedigree is strong, and his connections impeccable. The only question about him going into this race is how tight he will be wound for a prep race for bigger things to come. Others in his situation have been vulnerable in the past, but he may just be too good for this field at less than 100% ready.

Chad Brown trainee Blazing Sevens (6) finished fourth in the BC Juvenile last fall, and he, too, makes his first start of 2023. The same concern expressed about Forte probably applies here as well. Brown has been a little quieter than usual this winter, but a win here would change that.

HOF trainer Bill Mott has been sending out ready-to-race dirt horses for many months in a row now, so the winner of the G3 Holy Bull, Rocket Can (8) deserves a look. His speed figures suggest he is not in the class of Forte or Blazing Sevens, but his running style is right for this race. The price might be attractive as well. Mott’s other entry, Shadow Dragon (3) was runner-up to his stablemate in the Holy Bull at odds of 34-1. This NY-bred son of Army Mule is an unknown commodity at this point.

The most intriguing colt in the filed may be Mage (7). He broke his maiden in his only race on January 28th at the seven-furlong distance going gate to wire. The axion of handicapping that says to avoid horses trying something they’ve never done can certainly be applied here. Mage is facing winners the first time, routing the first time, and going two turns the first time. By all appearances he is the speed of the speed, an angle that has appeal in races like this one. At 8-1 he may be worth a shot. If the wise guys bet down his odds his value will decline in my opinion.

General Jim (1) ran his best race at seven furlongs when winning the G3 Swale last out. He’s raced at this distance in the past, albeit on the turf where his connections ran him three times. He has an intriguing pedigree so he may fit on some longer tickets. If you’re trying to beat the favorite, you could do worse than to look here.

Legacy Isle (2) has run only at Gulfstream Park. His figures suggest he does not fit. Play accordingly.
The same is true for Il Miracolo (5) who owns one win in seven races. Add Dangerous Ride (10) to this category as well.

The final horse in the field is Dale Roman’s trainee Cyclone Mischief (9). As is often the case with Roman’s horses, this guy was over-hyped and over-bet in the Holy Bull. He failed badly, losing by nearly a dozen lengths. Sadly, Roman’s horses have become a play-against for me outside of claiming and allowance races in Kentucky.

My picks: 4-6-1-8

San Felipe G2 – 1-1/16 milels – Santa Anita race 6

Tim Yakteen sends out five of the eleven runners in this race. Four of those five were just moved to his barn from Bob Baffert’s. Practical Move (3) is the one Yakteen entry that has been in the trainer’s barn from the start of his racing career. Practical Move has been off since his win the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity last December. His work tab is strong, and he well could be the best Yakteen horse in the field. He’s very much a contender.

The first of the Bafteen quartet is National Treasure (2). He finished third in the BC Juvenile and third in the G3 Sham behind stablemates. With Johnny V. aboard he’s one to consider, at least for a piece. He’s a pace presser type. The next of this lot is Hejazi (7), the lukewarm ML favorite. He broke his maiden last out sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs. Works are typical Baffert fare for horses he prepares for this type of race. He’s definitely one that could win, but I prefer others at a bigger price.

Fort Bragg (9) is the least accomplished of the Bafteen horses, but his ownership group is top notch. He’ll have to improve to contend. Mr. Fisk (11) is the last in this category. This son of Arrogate broke his maiden going a flat mile at SA in early January. Can all of the ex-Baffert trainees be live?

Richard Mandella is a HOF trainer who seldom places horses in spots where he thinks they cannot compete. The presence of Geaux Rocket Ride (8) catches our attention for that reason. This horse has run and won one race. He posted a 92 Beyer speed figure in that MSW and won by open lengths. He could be something very specials, and, if so, he may get on the lead and never look back.

Skinner (10) is another recent maiden winner who posted a big speed figure in doing so. This son of Curlin is an expensive purchase in the barn of former Kentucky Derby winner John Shirreffs. At odds at or above 6-1 he may be the live wise guy play.

The others in the field do not appear to fit based on past records.
My picks: 10-3-2-7-8