Road to the Derby: April 8th Derby Prep Races

By Bob Hill,
TSV staff writer —-

Three 100-point Derby prep races this weekend put us ever closer to knowing the Kentucky Derby Field for 2023. With each of these races awarding 100-40-30-20-10 points respectively for the top five spots, even a second place finish creates somewhere between certainty and very likely chances for a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Blue Grass Stakes – Race 9, G1 at Keeneland – 1-1/8 miles

A field of 11 colts will go in this 9-furlong affair. Morning line favorite Tapit Trice (1) drew the rail, a less than favorable spot in the eyes of trainer Todd Pletcher. Tapit Trice already is a likely starter at Churchill Downs having won the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby last month. He’s on all the experts’ lists as a top contender. Unless compromised by the rail draw or other traffic issues he looks very solid to win this race.

Major Blue (9) is the likely pacesetter in the Blue Grass at long odds for Wayne Lukas. He’ll most likely be pushed along up front by the Brad Cox trainee Verifying (3). Verifying failed as the favorite in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn on a sloppy track. The weather for this race is forecasted to be cool and dry following rain earlier in the weekend. Tyler Gaffalione will try to work out a trip to get first jump on Tapit Trice. I keep waiting for a breakout race from this son of Justify.

Blazing Sevens (8) holds the distinction of having the most disappointing race this winter among highly regarded colts that excelled as two-year-olds. He was bumped early in the Fountain of Youth and never ran a step. His work tab since then is okay but not eye-popping. He’s a hard one to predict here given his one race this year, which as mentioned was a disaster.

Sun Thunder (7) finished a well-beaten fifth in the G2 Louisiana Derby just two weeks ago. His entry here sends me signals of desperation from his connections. Mendelsohns March (11) is just the kind of dangerous horse that Ken McPeek enters in races like this one. He’s likely to relish the distance of the race, and in only his third lifetime start will be well below the radar offering big odds for an on-the-board finish.

Raise Cain (10) won the Grade 3 Gotham on a wet surface at Aqueduct in early March coming from out of the clouds passing ten rivals. He did break his maiden at Keeneland and is an interesting entry to consider at odds that should be inviting for trainer Ben Colebrook. Another in that category is Classic Car Wash (4), the runner-up to Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby.

My Picks: 3-1-10-11.

Santa Anita Derby -Race 6, G1 at Santa Anita -1-1/8 miles

I love the story line in this race as the Tim Yakteen trainee is the favorite. Practical Move (5) has been in Yakteen’s barn from the start and is not one of the horses transferred there by Bob Baffert. As the races in California lengthened to two turns Practical Move has continued to improve, winning the Grade 2 San Felipe last month He’ll have to contend once again with the Dick Mandella-trained Geaux Rocket Ride (3) who has raced but two times in his career. His second place finish in the G2 San Felipe came in only his second lifetime start. To say his upside may be unlimited seems like an understatement.

I’m also equally intrigued in here by two other horses, Mandarin Hero (8) and Skinner (7). The former is a Japanese-bred and raced son of Shanghai Bobby. He owns four wins in five races and has already run at nine panels. This is a bold move by his connections, but a smart one in my opinion. Based on the recent success of Japanese runners world-wide, I think we have to consider him as live.

Skinner is a late closing type trained by John Shirreffs, he of Zenyatta and Giacomo fame. This son of Curlin looks like an upset special to me. Shirreffs ran him twice in Grade 1 races while he was a maiden indicating what he thinks of this guy. If the pace takes any toll at all on those close to it Skinner could well be the one to get close at the end. An exotics placing sure seems possible in many scenarios.

National Treasure (6) is one of the Baffert-Yakteen trainees. He finished third to Forte in the BC Juvenile last fall, but his one race this year back in January saw him lose to two stablemates. His work tab says he is primed to go here with Johnny V aboard. If Baffert was the trainer’s name in the program one could cut his odds in half. The way it is, he could offer real value.

My Picks: 5-3-7-6-8

Wood Memorial – Race 11, G2 at Aqueduct – 1-1/8 miles

The Wood Memorial was a key Derby prep race early in this century, but in recent years winners of this New York contest have not made a major impact on the first Saturday in May. The favorite in the race, Hit Show (13) is drawn far outside. He won the Withers back in February for Brad Cox who had several options of where to send him next before settling on keeping him in New York. On the up side, Hit Show has improved with every race in his career. On the down side, his post position is a tough one and there are others in here that represent real competition.

Todd Pletcher has a barn full of Derby hopefuls, including Dreamlike (1) in this race. Dreamlike is still a maiden, but the son of Gun Runner should relish added distance if Jose Ortiz can work out a trip for him. It just feels like everything is breaking Pletcher’s way right now.

Slip Mahoney (5) is the other Brad Cox trainee in this race. If you like Tapit Trice over at Keeneland it is hard not to like Slip Mahoney here. This one lost to Tapit Trice by a neck back in December on a muddy Aqueduct track. He possesses tactical speed which should give pilot Dylan Davis several good trip options.

Arctic Arrogance (7) is a confirmed early speed type that is likely to set the pace. This New York-bred son of Frosted has never finished out of the exacta, but the water is deeper this time. Nonetheless, ignore a Linda Rice horse in New York at your own peril.

There are countless options for others to round out your tickets, so I advise going deep in trifectas and superfectas once you settle on a winner.

My Picks: 5-7-13-any you like