“Road to the Kentucky Derby” spans the Country: Quick Look at Four Derby Preps

Quick Look at Four Derby Preps

Bob Hill, TSV writer

The first weekend in March offers up four Kentucky Derby prep races. Three of the races offer 50 points to the winner, essentially making them win-and-you’re-in affairs. The fourth race, on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park offers only 20 points to the winner.

The overall star power is lacking in this group of races except for two contenders on most handicappers Derby contenders entered in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and Nysos (ineligible to earn Derby points) entered in the San Felipe.

Gotham G3 – 1 miles at Aqueduct

I’ve always thought the placement of this one-turn mile race this far into prep season does not make sense when the progression of races tends to get longer rather than shorter. Additionally, I do not see this race as likely to produce a true Derby contender.

This year’s Gotham includes multiple entries from Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, and Christophe Clemente. El Grande O (7) from the Linda Rice barn is making his 11th lifetime start. He’ll probably hit the board. Cox’s top two – Bergen (8) and Just a Touch (10) appear to have some upside, if not now then later. Deterministic (3)for Clemente is another in that category. Another Cox entry, Lightline (11) gets up late for a pieces.

Picks: 10-8-3-7-11

Fountain of Youth G2 – 1-1/16 miles at Gulfstream

The top two in this race are Dornoch (5), winner of the G3 Remsen last December, and Locked (8), winner of the G1 Breeders Futurity and third place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he went of as the favorite. Todd Pletcher finally gets Locked to the starting gate after dealing with some minor health issues this winter. Dornoch is a speedy near-the-lead type and Locked typically comes from off the pace. Speak Easy (1) and Victory Avenue (3) exit the same maiden race in which the former posted a 100 Beyer figure. There most certainly will be plenty of pace for Dornoch to chase. I just have a hunch that Speak Easy is a very special horse.

Picks: 1-8-5-3-4

John Battaglia Memorial – 1-1/16 miles on synthetics at Turfway Park

Another race with multiple Brad Cox entries. WinStar’s Gettysburg (1) has been competitive on wet and dry dirt surface for Cox and gets his first go on the artificial His class makes him one to consider. At the other end of the spectrum for the Cox barn is Encino (12) who broke his maiden last out on this track at this distance. Bolt at Midnight (4) is another recent maiden winner at Turfway who has shown steady race-to-race improvement. Epic Ride (6) is the ML line favorite at 5-2 off his open lengths win a month ago at Turfway in a one mile affair. Black Eyed George (7) was runner-up in that same race for top trainer Michael Mc Carthy. His horses are always
dangerous in these types of races.

Picks: 7-1-6-12-4

San Felipe G2 – 1-1/16 miles at Santa Anita (moved to Sunday)

Not much to analyze here. Nysos (3) wiins and the only race is for runner-up. Baffert has three entries. Sadler has Scatify (1) and Shireffs has the maiden McVay (4).

Picks: 3-5-2-1-4