Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Stakes Selection

By Bob Hill, TSV writer

Louisiana Derby G2 – 1-3/16 miles at Fair Grounds

The success of horses exiting the Louisiana Derby and heading to the
Kentucky Derby has gone in a positive direction in recent years. Fair
Grounds is both the winter home of some top connections and a
destination for other top handlers. Thus, the premier race of the
racing season in New Orleans has become a “must see” experience. This
year’s field is an interesting handicapping challenge, and I expect an
exciting race.

There is not a great deal of speed in this field of a dozen three-year-old colts. Based on past efforts, the pace scenario seems
pretty straight forward with the favorite Track Phantom (12) being drawn to the far outside just as he was in the G2 Risen Star where he finished second to the highly regarded Sierra Leone. That one is not in this field. The other speed would seem to belong to the lightly raced Antiquarian (3). Hall of Fame (2) possesses speed, but trainer Steve Asmussen did not send him in the Risen Star, choosing instead to rate him on the inside in what turned out to be a disappointing adventure. He does own the highest overall Beyer speed number earned in his maiden win on this track in January. I have to imagine they
will try to keep him closer in the early stages of this one.

Catching Freedom (5) finished third in the Risen Star when passing half the field. He is the second choice of oddsmakers in this race. Common Defense (10) exits the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes run at OakLawn Park a month ago where he finished second behind the impressive Timberlake. At odds of 6-1 he is a true bargain, but I doubt we’ll get those odds at post time. He possesses good tactical speed. Another with a similar running style is Tuscan Gold (11) who enters off an impressive win in the last of his two maiden starts for Chad Brown. Honor Marie (7) is a deep closer that will take some money. He appeared to hate the mud in the Risen Star, but his record on a dry track matches the best of these. Todd Pletcher finally decided on this race for Agate Road (4). He is a graded stakes winner on turf, and finished second in the Sam F. Davis on dirt at Tampa last month in a race that was slower than slow. He gets top jockey Irad Ortiz in the irons, so the connections are serious about his presence here.

The rest of this field would shock everyone with a top three finish. I am against Track Phantom who is going further this time after fading last time. That’s a formula I play against. I like Common Defense
more than Catching Freedom, and my shot horse is Hall of Fame.

Picks: 10-2-12-7-5

Jeff Ruby Stakes G3 – 1-1/8 miles on Tapeta (Synthetic)

I am opposed to Derby prep races being run on Tapeta. With that said, Rich Strike ran in this race two years ago and Two Phils won the race last year. Also, no one in Kentucky cares about my opinion so I will get past my bias.

0nly three of the 12 entered in the Jack Ruby Stakes this year have ever run on a synthetic surface. Those three own four wins in a total of seven races, so it makes sense to start the handicapping with them. Freedom Principle (1) won two of four tries on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park last year. His connections have run him on the turf this year, so his form on synthetics goes back many months. His odds should be lower than 30-1, but his chances do not appear to be great. Woodcourt (7) has experience at Turfway, and he owns a win on the Tapeta last December. His speed figures are modest, but he gets a plus mark for the experience he has that others do not. Endlessly (10) is a stakes winning runner on turf. In his lone start on the artificial surface he won the El Camino Real at Golden Gate Fields last month. Interestingly, his connections have hinted that they may prefer to return to the turf rather than to go on to the Triple Crown if he wins this race. Traditional handicapping makes him the justifiable favorite in this race.

There are five entries with moderate success on dirt that are trying synthetics for the first time. Lucky Jeremy (3) owns a win and a third place finish at Sunland Park in New Mexico. His numbers compete. Northern Flame (6) finished third in the Rebel at Oak Lawn, and his numbers also compete. He is trained by the always dangerous Ken McPeek. Otello (8) won twice on the dirt before flopping in the G3 Holy Bull. He was bumped in that race, and his odds are 15-1. If you want to roll the dice, he may be your guy. Seize the Grey (9) is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who springs a surprise often enough to draw
attention. He’s worth considering. West Saratoga (12) showed promise last year as a two-year-old, but he’s regressed this year. Thus, the 20-1 odds. The others with extensive experience on dirt don’t appear
to be contenders.

The one grass horse in the field is the Todd Pletcher trained Noted (4). His two races on dirt produced mixed results, with one win and one last place finish. He fits on class alone, but you have to get
past some negative information to put him on top.

In a race like this where the guesswork outweighs the critical analyses I usually bet a long shot. Nonetheless, I’m picking the only logical horse I see to win, but I am filling in behind him with a couple of longer odds plays looking for value. Endlessly on top of Otello with Noted in third Northern Flame fourth.

Picks: 10-8-4-6-9