Correll’s Derby Selections: Favorites loom, longshot possible

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —-

TRINITY, Fla. – The 150th Kentucky Derby will be run this year with an asterisk because several of the best 3-year-olds in the country won’t be in the race with the continued ban that Churchill Downs has placed on trainer Bob Baffert and colts in his care.

The Triple Crown will have less of an impact this year because the Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga in upstate New York and at a shorter distance. But that will be the subject of another column.

I’ll give my thoughts on each colt and then my picks at the end. This year I’ve got a shot horse.

1 – Dornach (Good Magic) was fourth in the Blue Grass and will be part of the speed. Trained by Danny Gargan. 20-1, Toss.
2 – Sierra Leone (Sire: Gun Runner) won the Blue Grass and will be coming late and he’s run in traffic. Trained by Chad Brown. 3-1,Win candidate.
3 – Mystik Dan (Goldencents) was third in the Arkansas Derby and if it’s wet his chances improve. He is trained by Ken McPeek. 20-1, Toss.
4 – Catching Freedom (Constitution) won the Louisiana Derby and is another late runner who seems to be improving. Trained by Brad Cox. 8-1, Win candidate.
5 – Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser) was second in Florida Derby. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. 30-1, Toss.
6 – Just Steel (Justify) was second in Arkansas Derby in what was one of the best preps won by Muth and could be part of the speed. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas. 20-1, Taking a shot.
7 – Honor Marie (Honor Code) was second in Louisiana Derby. Trained by Whit Beckman. 20-1, Use underneath.
8 – Just a Touch (Justify) was second in the Blue Grass and should show speed. Trained by Cox. 10-1, Use underneath.
9 – Encino scratched.
10 – T O Password (Capano Rickey) top finisher in the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. He is trained by Daisuke Takayanagi. 30-1, Toss as far as you can.
11 – Forever Young (Real Steel) won the UAE Derby. He’s trained by Yoshito Yahagi. 10-1, Win candidate if he’s lucky but I think he’s too slow.
12 – Track Phantom (Quality Road) was fourth in the Louisiana Derby. He will be adding blinkers and will be one of the speeds in the Derby. Trained by Steve Asmussen. 20-1, Use underneath.
13 – West Saratoga (Exaggerator) was second in Jeff Ruby. Trained by Larry Demeritte. 50-1, Toss.
14 – Endlessly (Oscar Performance) won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway. Trainer Michael McCarthy said he wasn’t headed to the Derby, but now owners have caught the fever. He’s a wild card and could be speed. 30-1, Use underneath.
15 – Domestic Product (Practical Joke) won the Tampa Bay Derby and could come out running to help Sierra Leone. Trained by Chad Brown. 30-1, Toss.
16 – Grand Mo The First (Uncle Mo) was fourth in Florida Derby. Trained by Victor Barboza Jr. 50-1, Toss.
17 – Fierceness (City of Light) destroyed the field in the Florida Derby. Trained by Todd Pletcher. The question is which Fierceness do you get if he doesn’t get the lead? At 5-2 I’m passing on him but others will list him as a win candidate.
18 – Stronghold (Ghostzapper) won the Santa Anita Derby and is the West Coast hope. Trained by Phil D’Amato and he could be the fastest. 20-1, Use underneath
19 – Resilience (Into Mischief) won the Wood Memorial. He could be more speed. Trained by Bill Mott. 20-1, Use underneath.
20 – Society Man (Good Magic) second in the Wood. Trained by Danny Gargan. Toss.
21 – Epic Ride (Blame) was third in the Blue Grass and draws in with the scratch of Encino. Trained by John Ennis. Toss.

Sierra Leone ran the third-fastest Derby prep race getting a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and though he comes late, he comes fast. Just Steel had the highest last-race Equibase figure of 112 in the Arkansas Derby running second to Muth. It’s the 150th Derby and he’s trained by 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas, so why not a fairy tale ending.

Here’s my top five: Sierra Leone, Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Fierceness and Endlessly.
My shot horse is Just Steel, 20-1 on the morning line.