View from the Grandstand: Louisiana Derby Selections

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —-

Louisiana Derby G2

1-3/16 miles on main track

We’ve reached the time of year in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby
where the prep races are stretched out to at least nine furlongs and
where the participants compete for 100-50-25-15-10 points per race.
The top two finishers in these races almost always earn enough points
to make the Derby field. Although a win in one of these 100-point
races is no guarantee of a Derby placement, the eventual winner of the
Run for the Roses is almost guaranteed to exit one of these preps
having run competitively.

The Louisiana Derby in recent years has produced several colts that
have been very good on Derby Day, including Sierra Leone, the eventual
best three-year-old of 2024.. The Louisiana Derby is the longest of
all the prep races and is very predictive of a young colt’s likelihood
of doing well at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs. With that in
mind, let’s take a look a this year’s field.

1 – John Hancock (7-2): Brad Cox trainee is light on experience as he
would enter the Derby off of only three starts. The top 3yos have
posted more impressive numbers, but few would argue against the long
term potential of this son of Constitution. He’s never trailed in his
two starts, so it will be interesting to see the approach to this
race. He certainly fits with this group and has to be thought of as a
contender.

2 – Chuck of Gold (8-1): Runner-up to the freakish Magnitude in the
G3 Risen Star. He closed well and did pass the tiring rival Built
near the wire. He is not royally bred, but he has outrun that pedigree
previously. Would be a feel-good story for these connections.

3 – Tiztastic (8-1): First of two entries from Hall of Fame trainer
Steve Asmussen, he makes his first appearance at Fair Grounds. Both
of his wins came on grass at Kentucky Downs, but he did run third in
the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park back in January. Another with an 8-1
morning line that could play well in the exotics.

4 – Yinzer (12-1): The other Asmussen trainee is fresh off his maiden
win on the track a month ago. He sold for a cool million dollars as a
yearling, so his connections obviously think highly of him. He has
good early speed so he could be one of the pacesetters. One of the
more interesting long shots.

5 – Caldera (5-1): His stablemate shocked the public in his Virginia
Derby victory. Most followers most likely saw Caldera as a more
likely Derby candidate. Owned by a MyRacehorse syndicate, he will
take big money thus diminishing his value. I still expect he’ll offer
some value. Gets a top jock for the timeless D. Wayne Lucas.

6 – Built (4-1): He chased close to that scorching hot pace in the
Risen Star before tiring late. We veterans of Arlington Park know how
good a trainer Louisiana native Wayne Catalano is. He’s good on this
track, and I expect a big effort from him.

7 – Vassimo (12-1): Ran a respectable fourth in the G2 Risen Star of
his maiden win, rallying after a mid-race fade. May be Pletcher’s
best chance at the Derby this year. He offers a lot of value if you
can figure out where that fade in the middle of the Risen Star came
from. This is my long shot play.

8 – Furio (12-1): Lightly raced Joe Sharp trainee is improving every
race.. Another step forward means he could hit the board. Figures to
be a part of pace scenario that could end up favoring closers.

9 – Instant Replay (6-1): This second Brad Cox trainee has more race
experience than his stablemate, but this is his first jump into the
deep end of the pool. Showed a solid late race kick in winning a
$100k allowance race at 8.5 furlongs in February on this track. Shape
of the race makes him a contender.

10 – Hypnus (10-1): Took a very long time to get going in the G2
Rebel which was his second lifetime start. He also looks to have the
right running style for how I see this race shaping up.

Selections: 7-6-1-9-5