Arkansas Derby Selections

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —-

Oaklawn Park (G1) 1-1/8 miles on main track

The Arkansas Derby has produced seven winners of the Kentucky Derby.
It’s a Grade 1 race with a purse of $1.5 million. Top American
trainers view the race as a perfect proving ground for some of their
top contenders. The field this year contains at least three very
interesting runners , but it is a little short on depth. However, any
race that draws entries from Asmussen, Baffert, Casse ,Lukas, and
McPeek promises to be entertaining. A couple of entries in this
year’s edition were purchased at auction for less than $20k, but
another pair sold for more than a million dollars. You gotta love
this sport.

There is a greater than 60% chance of rain in Hot Springs for all this
weekend, including Saturday afternoon. The going is very likely to be
muddy or worse. Let’s see how it shapes up.

1 – Brereton’s Baytown (30-1): Making his 11th lifetime start which
makes him the veteran of this group of nine. The good news for him
and his connections is the fact both his wins have come on muddy or
sloppy tracks. The bad news is that his best efforts are many lengths
short of competing . I cannot recommend this one.

2 – First Division (20-1): Trained by Kenny McPeek, he’s competed in
all three of his lifetime starts, all made on fast tracks at this
location. He’s going to come from off the pace, so the faster the
pace the better for him. He has good wet surface pedigree. Would be
a nice price at the bottom of exotics.

3 – Publisher (6-1): It’s been a strange Derby prep season for Steve
Asmussen. He’s not a standout colt this season, but his victory in
the Louisiana Derby last weekend with one that had not won in stakes
company on dirt shows that patience can be a virtue. I’m sure the
connections would be delighted with a similar improvement from this
son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He’s done okay on wet
surfaces before. Use in the exotics.

4 – Bestfriend Rocket (20-1): D. Wayne Lukas’ entries are always
worth consideration regardless of past performances. The numbers
suggest he’s a cut below the best in here. If you have “wild” money
to spend include him somewhere.

5 – Speed King (15-1): Went gate to wire when winning the G3
Southwest Stakes here in late January. Never got going in the G2
Rebel, so it may be best to ignore that setback. He has the early
speed to challenge Cornucopian, but what that leads to is the great
unknown. The oddsmaker obviously thinks the betting public will
dismiss him. I think he’s worth a shot in exotics.

6 – Sandman (3-1): Finished third as the favorite in the G2 Rebel
last month. His pedigree is outstanding, and he’s one of the million
dollar babies. He’s typically a late closer so he’ll relish a quick
pace. Outstanding wet pedigree, but no races on wet as yet.
Connections hoping the jockey change pays off. My pick.

7 – Monet’s Magic (20-1) Ran evenly when finishing fifth in the G2
Rebel. Another who comes from off the pace so traffic problems could
be an issue. Is one for one on a wet track. I like others better.

8 – Coal Battle (7-2): Without question this runner is the
sentimental favorite of fans and experts alike, not only in this race
but in the Derby field as well. His win in the G2 Rebel following up
on his win in the Smarty Jones means he has the points to make the
Churchill starting gate even before this race is run. He’s won at
four different tracks at distances ranging from 5 to 8.5 furlongs.
He’s two for two in the mud. My heart loves this guy, but my head
says he’ll be second or third best.

9 — Cornucopian: It’s a monumental task, even for a Baffert trainee.
Going from a MSW sprinting around one turn to a G1 classic distance
race off of one lifetime start was unimaginable once upon a time.
I’m not going to recommend this horse up or down – I’d be guessing
even more than any handicapper does in the normal course of business.

Selections: 6-8-5-2 Put the 9 where you decide.