Curlin Florida Derby Selections

By Bob Hill
TSV staff writer —-

Historically, the Florida Derby is one of the strongest prep races
for 3yo colts that are pointing to the Kentucky Derby. Both winners and
contenders exiting this race typically attract the interest of the
handicapping experts and the betting public. This year’s race
features a couple of strong candidates that are already on the Derby
Trail short lists of experts and fans alike, and, as expected, the
race has attracted top trainers and owners.

Much has been made of the difficulties of horses drawn to the outside
posts in routes of 8.5 or 9 furlongs at Gulfstream Park since the
major reconfiguration of Gulfstream’s main track two decades ago.
This year, the run-up distances have been lengthened in races of those
two distances. The change was made at the request of the jockey
colony who reegularly ride there. Three of the four lowest ML odds
entry in this year’s race are drawn to the outside three post
positions, so we should find out if the change is having any impact on
the race outcome.

1 – Neoequos (10-1): Set the pace in the G2 Fountain of Youth four
weeks ago, before being passed in the home stretch. Trained by Safie
Joseph, Jr., he has good early speed and should be contending for the
lead from the start. Will have to gain stamina while going longer
than ever – a tough assignment for any developing three year old.
Definitely a pace factor, and he could figure in the exotics.

2 – Cool Intentions (20-1): Best lifetime speed figures are many
lengths shy of contending with the best ones here. I cannot find a
reason to recommend him.

3 – Smoken Boy (30-1): Entered here off a fresh claim for low
percentage connections. Deserves the 30-1 ML, which is probably lower
odds than he’ll be at post time.

4 – Disruptor (4-1): Pletcher, Repole, and Irod Ortiz flying under
the radar with this one; an unusual scenario for them. Still attracts
4-1 ML odds coming off his maiden win last out at 7 furlongs. Tough
assignment for youngster making only is third lifetime start. Use in
the exotics.

5 – Indecisiveness (30-1): Local three-year-old is a home grown
Florida-bred son of Decisive Moment. With only his maiden win in the
plus column, a good showing in this deep field would be a surprise,

6 – Jimmy’s Dailys (10-1): Donald Disney homebred trained by Brian
Lynch, this son of Vekoma has shown some ability thus far in his
four-race career. He, however, will have to run much faster than he
has before to stay close in this race. Low exotics at best.

7 – Enterdadragon (30-1): Most experienced colt in this field will be
making his tenth start for successful trainer Jose D’Angelo. His best
work still marks him far slower than the others.

8 – Madaket Road (7-2): Nowhere near Baffert’s best 3yo. With the
blinker’s coming off we should expect him to press the pace rather
than set it. Should get the first shot at the pacesetter if he is
good enough. I hold Baffert in very high regard, but I don’t see this
guy getting more than a small piece.

9 – Tappan Street (5-1): Runner-up in the G3 Holy Bull before
missing the G2 Fountain of Youth, this lightly raced prodigy of Into
Mischief has displayed a strong closing kick in both his races. At
5-1, I think he’s the value in this field at that price. Bettor’s
decisions will boil down to whether he’s still value once the betting
begins. If I take a shot at beating Sovereignty, this is my guy.

10 – Sovereignty (8-5): Godolphin homebred trained by Bill Mott gives
his owners’ a shot at their long awaited first Kentucky Derby win.
Mott is very skilled at getting a horse primed for a targeted race,
which in this case is the Kentucky Derby. That fact begs the question
of how tight the trainer will have this horse for this race since he’s
already secured enough points to be in the Derby field.

Selections: 9-10-1-8-4