Correll’s Corner: California Dreaming– Kentucky Derby Selections

By Ron Correll
Senior columnist —-
Tracksideview

California Dreaming

TRINITY, Fla. – The 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., is upon us. I will take a look at the colts entered and give my opinion on each. They will be listed in post-position order with sire and trainer.

I will give the highest speed figure they have run and the speed figure from their last race. If the speed figures are the same I will list it only once. I also will list what they did in each of their last races.

Let’s get started and at the end I will give my picks.

1) Citizen Bull (Into Mischief), Bob Baffert, 107, 94. Fourth in Santa Anita Derby but Baffert said he was a little soft on him and he hadn’t race since Feb. 1. He gets blinkers back on and he’ll have to go now from this post. Don’t sell Baffert short. Odds: 20-1.

2) Neoequos (Neolithic), Saffie Joseph Jr., 100, 99. Third in Florida Derby and the farther this one goes the slower he gets. 30-1.

3) Final Gambit (Not This Time), Brad Cox, 96. Won Jeff Ruby Steaks (March 22) and he hasn’t raced since. This guy has never been on dirt and he is a closer. 30-1.

4) Rodriguez (scratched, hoof bruise).

5) American Promise (Justify), D. Wayne Lukas, 102, 101. Won Virginia Derby on March 15 and the final time was 146.41 for a one-turn mile-and-an-eighth race. I’m not buying that clocking. His last work at Oaklawn Park (4-18) was also puzzling. 30-1.

6) Admire Daytona (Drefong), Yuihiro Kato, no speed figure available. He won UAE Derby, but has been beaten by Luxor Cafe in Japan. The UAE Derby was a very slow race. The time was 159.41 for a mile-and-three-sixteenths. 30-1.

7) Luxor Cafe (American Pharoah), Noriyuk Hori, no speed figure available. Won Fukuryv Stakes in Japan but time was 1:52.1. In my opinion that was slow. 15-1

8) Journalism (Curlin), Michael McCarthy, 110, 108. Won Santa Anita Derby after overcoming trouble on the second turn in a five-horse field. He’s a stalker that has many gears. He’s the pick of the litter. 3-1.

9) Burnham Square (Liam’s Map), Ian Wilkes, highest speed figure: 104. Won the Blue Grass in last start but is was the slowest running (1:51.33) since Keeneland went back to dirt in 2014. He’s a closer. 12-1.

10) Grande (Curlin),SCRATCHED

11) Flying Mohawk (Karakontie), Whit Beckman, 97, 91. Second in Jeff Ruby Steaks. I can’t recommend this one. 30-1.

12) East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro), Brendan Walsh, 104. Second in Blue Grass and he’s a speed horse and could go too fast for a quarter-mile. He’s cheap speed. 20-1.

13) Publisher (American Pharoah), Steve Asmussen, 100. Second in Arkansas Derby and he’s the only maiden in the race. Only three maidens have won the Derby and the last was in 1933 (Brokers Tip). That finish in Arkansas has many on his bandwagon. 30-1.

14) Tiztastic (Tiz the Law), Steve Asmussen, 99. Won Louisiana Derby (March 22) and hasn’t race since. He is a closer and I don’t like the time off. 20-1.

15) Render Judgment (Blame), Ken McPeek, 98. Fifth in Blue Grass. The owners got “Derby fever” and I hope they enjoy the festivities, because the colt has a quarter crack in his left front hoof. 30-1.

16) Coal Battle (Coal Front), Lonnie Briley, 104, 93. Third in Arkansas Derby and I wouldn’t use him any higher on any tickets. He’s this year’s feel-good story and could get a piece. 30-1.

17) Sandman (Tapit), Mark Case, 104. Won Arkansas Derby after capitalizing on blistering early speed. He’s a closer and will be coming late. Use him in exotics. 6-1.

18) Sovereignty (Into Mischief), Bill Mott, 99, 96. Second in Florida Derby and the extra distance will suit him. He will come from the clouds. If he wins, Godolphin will finally get its Derby. 5-1.

19) Chunk of Gold (Preservationist), Ethan West, 96. Second in Louisiana Derby and a lot of wise guys will be playing him. 30-1.

20) Owen Almighty (Speightstown) Brian Lynch, 98. Sixth in Blue Grass and trainer said colt would not run in Derby, then the owners got derby fever. Good luck. He’ll be part of the speed (slow speed). 30-1.

21) Baeza (McKinzie), John Shirreffs, 107. Second in Santa Anita Derby and he’s a big danger. 12-1.

I’ve got to go with the California horses because they have been running the fastest races.(8) Journalism, (21) Baeza and (1) Citizen Bull have the best numbers. (18) Sovereignty and (9) Burmham Square are the best in the East. So if the race falls apart they are the best bets along with Sandman.

I think Citizen Bull will be overlooked, so he’ll be my “longshots.”