Deterministic among four Grade 1 winners in G1 Fourstardave; Test Preview

By Christian Abdo —-

Deterministic among four Grade 1 winners in G1 Fourstardave

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable’s Deterministic seeks a title defense, but it won’t come easily among a classy field in Saturday’s Grade 1, $750,000 Fourstardave, a one-mile inner turf test for 3-year-olds and up, at Saratoga Race Course.

The Fourstardave offers a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile in October at Keeneland.

The multiple Grade 1-winning Deterministic, trained by Miguel Clement, is one of four Grade 1 winners in the seven-horse field, including Rhetorical, Zulu Kingdom and the filly Classic Q.

“This is a small field, but a spectacularly good one in terms of their ratings,” Clement said. “This will be a great betting race for sure, but we’ll be ready for them.”

Deterministic [post 5, Kendrick Carmouche] has made two starts this year, both successful title defenses, in the nine-furlong Grade 3 Fort Marcy in May at Belmont at the Big A and the 1 3/16-mile Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan on June 6 here. In the latter, which Deterministic won last year by a head, the 5-year-old Liam’s May bay tracked Rhetorical and kicked clear in the lane to a half-length victory in a Mellon turf record 1:50.50.

“He’s giving us every indication yet again that he is set for a very big performance,” said Clement. “Everyone [handicapping] is worried about the cutback in distance. They said the same last year and he was very impressive when he won the Fourstardave. I think when they are that good, distance doesn’t become a limitation. You are able to both stretch them out and cut them back, and they’re still able to perform at the highest level.”

Last year, Deterministic exited the Manhattan to capture the Fourstardave by 1 1/4 lengths in the final start of his campaign. He is 15-9-3-1 overall with over $2.63 million in earnings, which is almost $50,000 shy of Lagynos’ field-high, who similar to Deterministic, enters on a five-race win streak.

Lagynos [post 7, Jose Ortiz], trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen for HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud, earned his $2.68 million via a 28-10-5-7 record. This year as a 5-year-old, the Kantharos chestnut has made six starts, winning his last five, four of them graded, including the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Wise Dan last out on June 27 at Churchill Downs.

Last year’s Fourstardave was Lagynos’ lone Grade 1 attempt thus far, where he landed seventh at odds of 49-1 after four placings to start the year. Bettors will not get odds anywhere close to that price with Lagynos’ current form and proven late kick.

“He’s always had talent, but now he’s figured out how to win,” Asmussen said. “He’s had a wonderful year so far, now he’s stepping up into a Grade 1. The mile suits him.”

Gary Barber, Cheyenne Stable and Wachtel Stable’s dual Grade 1-winner Rhetorical [post 1, Irad Ortiz, Jr.] is the reigning New York-bred Horse of the Year. The 5-year-old Not This Time gelding was a pacesetting fourth last out in the Manhattan, sporting an aluminum pad to deal with a foot fungus, and trainer Will Walden said he’s coming into the Fourstardave in seemingly improved form.

“It wasn’t the most ideal way of coming into a race for us, but he set a stakes record running fourth,” Walden said. “He ran his tail off. He did the big body of the work up front, and take nothing away from him – he gave everything he had and I think he ran a terrific race in defeat.”

Rhetorical previously earned a field-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure for a 3 1/4-length wiring of the nine-furlong Grade 1 Turf Classic on May 2 at Churchill Downs. That was his second Grade 1 win after capturing the Turf Mile in October at Keeneland ahead of a two-length fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile in November at Del Mar.

“He’s doing very good. The cutback isn’t an issue, and he’s talented anywhere between eight and nine furlongs,” Walden said of the dark bay bred by Mallory and Karen Mort. “Physically, he’s bigger and stronger. Mentally, he’s sounder in some ways. One of his strengths is kind of this animalistic, feral side that he can turn on and just run like a wild horse. He harnesses it for race day.

“This race will have quite a bit of speed, and as usual, I think he’s probably part of it up there, but his tractability is a weapon of his,” Walden added.

Dual Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse brings that speed with 4-year-old filly Classic Q [post 4, John Velazquez] and New York-bred gelding Mi Bago [post 2, Luis Saez], both coming off pairs of prominent wins.

Gary Barber, Blue Crevalle Racing and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners’ Classic Q wired the one-mile Grade 1 Just a Game presented by Resolute Racing versus her own sex last out on June 6 here.

“It looks like there is a lot of speed in there,” Casse said. “Johnny will have to decide [the trip]. You can’t grab her. If they run with us, it’s probably not good for either one of us. We’ll just have to see how it goes.”

Casse sent out Got Stormy to defeat males in this race in 2019 and 2021, and he also won it with the gelding World Approval in 2017.

Gary Barber’s Mi Bago dead-heated for victory with returning rival Zulu Kingdom last out in the Grade 3 Kelso on July 5 over course and distance. The 4-year-old Vekoma bay earned a career-best 100 Beyer and his first graded score, successfully stepping up from a 4 1/2-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile state-bred Kingston on June 3 here.

Casse said the speedy Mi Bago, bred by Highclere, was originally pointed to the state-bred West Point presented by Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital on August 28 here, but touted himself well enough in the mornings to enter this race.

“He’s a neat horse,” Casse said. “I was going to wait and just run him in the New York-bred race at the end of the meet, but he said, ‘put me in, coach!’ That horse is a machine. It’s not going to be easy, but that’s why they’re Grade 1s.”

Zulu Kingdom [post 3, Flavien Prat] stalked-and-pounced to his aforementioned dead-heat for victory in the Kelso. Trained by five-time Eclipse Award-winner Chad Brown, the dual Grade 1-winner rebounded from a third-of-5 in the Grade 3 Poker over course and distance on June 7.

“I’m very, very pleased with him,” Brown said. “It’s a tough field, he [Mi Bago] made it tough last time, but it’s a Grade 1 at Saratoga, they are all going to be tough.”

Madaket Stables, Michael Dubb, William Strauss and Michael Caruso’s Zulu Kingdom is 8-for-11 overall. The 4-year-old Ten Sovereigns ridgling began his campaign with a wiring of Keeneland’s Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile, his second top-level score to go with the American Turf last May at Churchill Downs. Zulu Kingdom earned a career-best 100 Beyer last out.

Rounding out the field is dual graded stakes-placed Capitol Hill [post 6, Junior Alvarado] for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has won this race a record six times, most recently with Casa Creed in 2022-23.

The Fourstardave [Race 10] is one of four graded stakes on Saturday’s loaded Grade 1, $1 million Whitney card, headlined by the nine-furlong “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in Race 12. The 14-race card will also feature the Grade 1, $750,000 Saratoga Derby presented by Qatar Racing in Race 11 and the Grade 1, $500,000 Test presented by Ticketmaster in Race 9. First post is 11:45 a.m. Eastern.

Saratoga Live presents daily coverage and analysis of the summer meet at Saratoga Race Course on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/tv-schedule/.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Saratoga Race Course, and the best way to bet every race of the summer meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

Explora on a quest for a first G1 win in Saturday’s Test presented by Ticketmaster

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – Michael Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman’s dual graded stakes-winning millionaire Explora will venture to the Empire State for the first time for Saturday’s Grade 1, $500,000 Test presented by Ticketmaster, a seven-furlong sprint for sophomore fillies, at Saratoga Race Course.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the Blame dark bay has banked in excess of $1.2 million through a 9-5-3-0 record that includes scores traveling 1 1/16-miles in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf in October at Santa Anita Park the Grade 3 Honeybee in March at Oaklawn Park.

Explora [post 7, Flavien Prat] exited the Honeybee to post a strong effort in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on May 1 at Churchill Downs. There, the talented filly exited post 1-of-13 under Flavien Prat and showed the way through splits of 23.08 seconds, 46.85 and 1:10.78 over the fast main track. She battled down the lane with Meaning, but it was Always a Runner that would rally late to secure the win in front of Meaning with Explora landing fourth a neck back of Counting Stars, who has since won a pair of Grade 1s here.

“Going into the Oaks, we thought we could win it. It was a tough race that day and she took all the heat early and still ran well,” said Baffert, whose past Test winners include Indian Blessing [2008], Contested [2012] and Gamine [2020].

The $350,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale has shown an affinity for sprinting seven-furlongs, finishing a one-length second to stablemate Bottle of Rouge in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante in September to go along with Listed stakes wins in the Las Virgenes in February at Santa Anita and the Leslie’s Lady last out on June 7 at Churchill Downs. Her Leslie’s Lady score over returning foe On Time Girl earned a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure.

Baffert said he has confidence in Explora’s abilities either sprinting or routing.

“I think she’ll do both. We’re just trying to get that Grade 1,” Baffert said. “She’s very talented and she should like the seven-eighths there.”

A good summer campaign could propel Explora to the Breeders’ Cup in October at Keeneland and a chance to go one better than her three-quarter-length second to Super Corredora at last year’s World Championships in the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar.

“She’s a filly I think will get better with age, but let’s get by the Test first,” Baffert said.

Explora is out of the winning Bernardini mare Collections Choice. Her second dam is the multiple Grade 1-placed Giant’s Causeway mare Model.

Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing’s improving Where Luck Lives [post 4, Luis Saez], a $725,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, will make her stakes debut for trainer Brian Lynch.

The Nyquist dark bay, out of the Grade 1-placed Harlan’s Holiday mare Holiday Soiree, is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning multimillionaire Vahva.

She arrives from a pair of frontrunning scores in Kentucky beginning with a second-out graduation over sloppy and sealed footing in April at Keeneland where she topped returning rival Movie Night. Last out, she romped by 5 1/4-lengths over a fast main track, covering six furlongs in 1:10.03 to register an 87 Beyer in an optional-claimer on May 28 at Churchill Downs.

“She’s going in the right direction. This will be a big step up for her,” Lynch said. “She’s an average-sized filly, very well balanced and she looks the part. She can run good fresh, so we’ve given her a bit of time and hopefully we have her right for next week.”

Where Luck Lives finished a 1 1/2-length fourth last June at Churchill Downs in her lone juvenile start.

“It was just 2-year-old things, she might have had a little bit of bone bruising, and we had to stop on her,” Lynch explained.

Lynch said the well-related filly is training well into the Test at his Churchill base having breezed back six times, including a five-eighths effort in 1:00.60 July 26 and a half-mile in 50.60 August 1.

“She worked good [July 26]. She did it in hand nicely and looked like she had plenty of horse, it was just what we were after,” Lynch said. “Hopefully this will put us where we want to be.”

Spendthrift Farm’s Goodall [post 5, John Velazquez] will look to make the grade in her third attempt, entering from a prominent second to returning rival Sippin Pretty last out in the 6 1/2-furlong Grade 3 Victory Ride on July 10 here.

Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Goodall won her Spa debut in prominent fashion in June with a 2 3/4-length score in the Jersey Girl over the pacesetting returning rival Carmel Coast, who had zipped a half-mile in 44.16 after stumbling at the break.

Last out, Goodall traveled in third position behind the dueling pair of Iron Orchard and Mythical through a half-mile in 45.79 before advancing to take a two-length advantage at the stretch call but was collared by Sippin Pretty 70 yards from the wire.

“I think how the racetrack is playing on the day will matter,” Asmussen said. “When she won here, the racetrack was obviously tight and fast. The other day when she was second, the track was considerably slower.”

Goodall, unraced as a juvenile, graduated at second asking in February at Fair Grounds Race Course and subsequently captured the six-furlong Purple Martin in March at Oaklawn Park ahead of a distant fifth in the seven-furlong Grade 2 Eight Belles in May at Churchill Downs.

Bred by Spendthrift’s stallion sales manager Mark Toothaker with William Heiligbrodt and Corrine Heiligbrodt, Goodall was a $525,000 purchase at the 2025 OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training and boasts deep Spendthrift bloodlines being by their promising young stallion Yaupon and out of Moon Over Mag Bay, a daughter of their foundation stallion Malibu Moon. Yaupon was undefeated in three Spa starts for Asmussen, including a win in the 2021 Grade 1 Forego.

Albaugh Family Stables’ Kentucky homebred On Time Girl [post 6, Irad Ortiz, Jr.] is a dual graded stakes-winner searching for a first Grade 1 score for dual Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox.

The Not This Time bay [8-5-2-1, $887,105] will look to reach millionaire status, entering from a stalking second to returning rival Explora last out in the aforementioned Leslie’s Lady.

On Time Girl picked up her first stakes win in the 6 1/2-furlong Fern Creek in November at Churchill Downs. She added graded wins sprinting seven furlongs this year in the Grade 3 Forward Gal in January at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Eight Belles in May at Churchill.

Cox said the talented bay, out of the Grade 3-winning Uncle Mo mare Girl Daddy, has the ability to succeed at the top flight.

“She’s very consistent and honest. She deserves a shot at a Grade 1 – she’s a multiple graded stakes-winner and hopefully she can add that Grade 1 to her resume,” Cox said.

On Time Girl, a debut winner last August at Ellis Park, worked a half-mile in 49.60 August 1 at Churchill in her final prep for the Test.

“She’s always been good in the afternoons, and she broke her maiden at Ellis last year and has been very steady and consistent ever since she started racing,” Cox said.

WinStar Farm’s Kentucky homebred Movie Night [post 1, Jose Ortiz] has won both starts since closing to finish second on debut to Where Luck Lives in April at Keeneland.

Trained by Will Walden, the Speightstown bay made her next two outings in sprints at Churchill Downs, romping over sloppy and sealed footing versus elders to graduate at second asking by eight lengths over next-out maiden winner Epic Proud Mary.

Last out, Movie Night drew off to a prominent 5 1/2-length score versus fellow sophomore fillies on June 24 traveling 6 1/2-furlongs over the fast main track at Churchill. She stopped the clock in 1:15.33 and earned a field-best 96 Beyer.

“She’s got a lot of ability and talent. She’s a filly with a great mind and disposition,” Walden said. “She only lets the freak out of the bag when we ask for it, which is good, and we think she’ll excel at seven furlongs. I’m excited to try to jump up and win a stake with her.

“All three of her races have been different [tactics] in a sense, but she’s been able to relax and finish the job emphatically when called upon,” Walden added. “We were really high on her last year as a 2-year-old and she was probably my favorite 2-year-old in the barn as far as ability goes. She had a setback, but it was nothing major, and we decided to bring her back easy and gear her up for her 3-year-old year at Keeneland. She’s done nothing wrong since.”

Movie Night is a half-sister to Grade 3-winner Stellify, who finished fourth in Saturday’s Grade 2 Beverly D. at Colonial Downs. She is out of the winning Medaglia d’Oro mare Savvy Star, a half-sister to Grade 1-winner Bluegrass Cat and graded stakes-winners Dramedy and Lord of the Game. Her third dam is Grade 3-winner Get Lucky, who produced Grade 1-winner Girolamo and graded stakes-winners Daydreaming and Accelerator.

Sippin Pretty [post 3, Ricardo Santana, Jr.] earned a career-best 94 Beyer for her last out victory in the Grade 3 Victory Ride here at odds of 26-1.

Trained by Ian Wilkes for Randall Bloch, Six Column Stables, Mike Davis and Gene Rice, the Yaupon dark bay tracked in fourth position under returning rider Ricardo Santana, Jr. and arrived late in the lane to collar Goodall and make the grade.

The $75,000 acquisition from the 2024 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale graduated at second asking in March at Gulfstream Park and followed with a 5 3/4-length optional-claiming score in April at Keeneland.

Sippin Pretty landed a distant sixth after breaking a step slow and taking dirt in the Eight Belles but proved reinvigorated when racing fresh last out. She worked a half-mile in 50.35 July 26 over the Skylight Training Center synthetic.

Bred in Kentucky by Clarkland Farm, Sippin Pretty is a half-sister to stakes-placed Mr Bob out of the multiple stakes-winning Tizway mare Tiz Imaginary.

Hat Creek Racing’s Grade 1-winner Percy’s Bar [post 2, Manny Franco, blinkers ON] will cut back in distance as she looks to return to winning ways after a pair of off-the-board efforts.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, the Upstart bay boasts an ultra-consistent 8-3-2-1 ledger for more than $1 million in purse earnings. She won her first two starts as a 2-year-old, including a score in the Listed Debutante last June at Churchill ahead of a runner-up effort to Tommy Jo here in in the seven-furlong Grade 1 Spinaway in her Spa debut.

Percy’s Bar has made all six of her subsequent starts in route races, crossing the wire first in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades on October 3 at Keeneland before being disqualified and placed second for interference on familiar foe Tommy Jo, who was elevated to victory. She completed her campaign with a closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies when three lengths back of Explora.

Percy’s Bar returned to action in April and drew off to a 2 1/4-length score in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland ahead of an eight-length seventh in the Kentucky Oaks. She was last seen finishing fifth as the mutuel favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Monomoy Girl on June 13 at Churchill.



The $52,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase is out of the Super Saver mare Honestly Deb, a half-sister to Listed stakes-winner Praetereo [82-11-12-17, $715,319].

A talented field also includes stakes-placed Carmel Coast [post 8, Tyler Gaffalione], who was fifth last out in the Victory Ride for trainer Whit Beckman.

The Test is slated as Race 9 on Saturday’s 14-race card, which is headlined by the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney in Race 12, which offers a ‘Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in October at Keeneland. Also on tap Saturday are the Grade 1, $750,000 Saratoga Derby presented by Qatar Racing in Race 11 and the Grade 1, $750,000 Fourstardave in Race 10, providing a ‘Win and You’re In’ berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile. First post is 11:45 a.m. Eastern.

Saratoga Live presents daily coverage and analysis of the summer meet at Saratoga Race Course on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/tv-schedule/.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Saratoga Race Course, and the best way to bet every race of the summer meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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Contact: Keith McCalmont