Kentucky Oaks: Complete Card Selections; Pick-4, Pick-5, Oaks/Derby Double

By Matt Pappis
TSV Staff Writer —-

*Races have been handicapped for a fast track and firm turf course please check the weather prior to playing*

Friday May 5th Kentucky Oaks Card

Race 1: 5-4-3

Race 2: 3 – 7 – 1- 4

Race 3: 2 – 8 -5 -3

Race 4: 2- 5- 7-8

Race 5: Grade I La Troienne Stakes

Paid Up Subscriber (4): The Madison at Keeneland seems to be a prep for this spot, getting back to two turns and stretching out, this is the one to beat.

Streamline (6): Has never missed the trifecta at this distance and possesses a lot of tactical speed in a field that doesn’t present much speed.

Finest City (8): This mare has been much better at one turn and should have went to the Humana Distaff, but she is class and must be used.

Race 6: Grade II Alysheba Stakes

Bird Song (1): The 1&1/8th distance was a little too far for him in the Ben Ali at Keeneland and I prefer him at the 1 1/16 distance. The lack of speed in the race makes him the one to catch and beat.

American Freedom (9): Bob Baffert has a 32% win rate off 180+ day layoff into a graded stakes and also has a 30% win rate off a 180+ day layoff. This one was last seen running behind the monster Arrogate in the Travers Stakes; I expect a SHORT price here.

Honorable Duty (4): I won’t spend much money trying to beat the top two picks however this one has rounded into form very nicely and is one you should protect yourself with.

Noble Bird (8): He has the ability to run off the screen or not; depends which Noble Bird shows up.

Race 7: Twinspires Turf Sprint

Pure Sensation (8): This is the horse I like the most on the card if we have a firm turf on Friday. He was last seen going down the hill in the BC from the rail which is difficult to win from, compounded with the fact that he is a 5 furlong specialist, he had a lot going against him that day and still ran a good third. He comes back for a hot barn working bullets at Payson, he will be a key to the day for me.

Maniacal (5): Has always been one that the trainer and owner have been high on and he is now healthy and has enough turf breeding to fit with this group.

Green Mask (12): He always does just enough to hit the board but not enough to win, and that looks to be the case again here. The post is also compromising for the distance at CD he will fly late and just miss as always.

Race 8: Eight Belles Stakes

Union Strike (2): Toss out the two races going long and this is much the one to beat. There is enough speed to set up a perfect stalking trip for this Cali shipper.

Florida Fabulous (9): Has been dominating in her first two career starts and she might be something special.

Pretty City Dancer (4): If you toss her first start and the two attempts at routing she would have 4 wins and a place (off a 6 month layoff). She is better built to sprint and 8-1 is pure value but I expect her to get bet down more towards the 6/1 range.

Race 9:

Goats Town (12): The drop in class and turn back in distance makes this one the pick, and what would a Derby weekend be without D. Wayne Lukas in the winner’s circle once?

Taketothestreets (3): A very consistent horse so I will go ahead and toss the last in the Ben Ali. If he runs back to his races from Oaklawn this winter, he will be a tough foe in here.

Decorated Solider (9): We all know by now how Todd Pletcher dominates the undercard on major race days.

Race 10: Edgewood Stakes

India Mantuana (4): There is not much speed in here and jock Jose Ortiz is the best on the lead, this one might be awfully loose turning for home if Stallion Heiress isn’t ready for the step up in class.

Stallion Heiress (6): Hasn’t done much wrong in three career starts winning each very easily so we will see how good she is today.

Bernadiva (2): Has tactical speed and can sit right off our top two selections, but this is a big step up in class. She has improved with each and every start and it says a lot that Javier Castellano will stay aboard.

Proctors Ledge (7): Always puts in her run but as I mentioned, there is not much speed in this race to set it up for her. She will come flying late but it might be too late.

Race 11: Grade I Kentucky Oaks Post Time 6:12 EDT

Miss Sky Warrior (10): Coming in off 5 consecutive starts and while she hasn’t faced the quality she will face today she is the only one in the field to win at the distance and not once but twice.

Paradise Woods (4): If you haven’t gotten the chance to watch her last race do yourself a favor and watch the Santa Anita Oaks, that was one of the more impressive races you will see out of a filly in only her 3rd career start. The bottom line here is if she runs back to the Santa Anita Oaks they are all running for second.

Abel Tasman (13): She was once viewed as the second best filly in the division when barely losing to Unique Bella, well now Bella is on the sideline and she found a new foe in Paradise Woods. She will come running late and hoping to pick them all off for Hall of Fame Trainer, Bob Baffert.

Race 12: 4-8-7-10
Race 13: 11-10-5-4

*Highly recommend using as many horses as your budget allots and partnering up with others the pick 4’s and 5’s derby weekend pay BIG and you don’t want your next horse on to beat you for a big score *

Pick 4 Races 5-7
.50 cents: 2,4,5,7,8/ 4,6,8 /1,4,8,9/ 3,5,12 = $90

.50 cents: 2,4,5,7,8/ 4,6,8 /1,4,8,9/ 8 = $30

$2: 2,4,5,7,8/ 4,6 /1,9/ 8 = $40

Pick 5 Races 7-11

.50 cents: 8/2,4,9/ 3,4,6,7,9,12/1,2,4,6,7,9/ 4,10,13 = $162

.50 cents: 2,4,9/3,4,6,7,9,12/ 1,2,4,6,7,9/ 4,10,13 = $162

Oaks/Derby Double

$1: 4,10,13/ 2,7,8 = $9

Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3

$1: 4,10,13/ 2,7,8/14,15 = $18