Handicapping: Florida Derby Full-Card Selections

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —-

The action moves to Gulfstream Park this weekend for the Grade 1 Florida Derby, plus the bonus of a strong undercard of other listed and graded stakes races. Picks with analyses and commentary are included for all the stakes races. Picks for all 14 races on the card are listed.

Non-stakes Races

Race 1: 5-7-4-12

Race 2: 6-5-8-12

Race 3: 3-5-8-7

Race 5: 5-11-3-9

Stakes Races

Race 4: Cutter Bay – 1 mile on turf for 3yo 6-10-9-4

Vitalogy (6) enters this race of his last-out win in the G3 Palm Beach. There likely will be more pace to run into in this race given the presence of Get Smokin’ (3), Inter Miami (5), and Mr. Hustle (11). Decorated Invader (10), in his first start since the BC Juvenile Turf, could benefit from that pace if Clemente has him totally fit for this return. That’s the great unknown. South Bend (9) is another deep closer, and Summer to Remember (4) should get a good shot at the leaders at the top of the lane. All could contend for the win.

Race 6: Hal’s Hope (G3) – 1-1/8 miles on dirt for 4yo and up 11-6-5-9

This race is a staple on the Florida Derby Day card, but it did not attract the strongest cast of characters. Given that fact, now is the time to consider the longshot Prompt (11) for the upset win. He’s 3 for 4 at the distance. American Tattoo (6) is a marathoner staying in shape for longer races. Just Whistle (5) gets a set of blinkers for this race, and Realm (9) gets Paco Lopez aboard. Teamed with trainer Barclay Tagg, Paco has had some big scores at Gulfstream.

Race 7: Sanibel Island – 1 miles on turf for 3yo fillies 7-8-1-11

This race offers value because it lacks a standout favorite. Walk in Marrakesh (7) has been beaten a head and a nose in her only two N.A. starts. She’s good enough to win this from her forwardly placed running style. She’s My Type (8) could benefit from added pace in this race, as would Lucky Polly (1). Highland Glory (11) showed a liking for the turf in maiden win in January. Another step forward is certainly possible.

Race 8: Sir Shackleton – 7 furlongs on dirt for 4yo and up 3-8-7-2

Any number of horses could win this wide-open affair. Vekoma (8) exudes class in this field, but he has not run since last year’s Kentucky Derby. Trainer George Weaver is not known for getting them primed off the bench, so a win bet on Vekoma carries that risk. Last Judgment (3) is a Pletcher trainee that won here last month sprinting 6 furlongs, and a step forward would make him a win candidate. Jackson (7) is a Florida-bred colt that has won on the track and at the distance. Garter and Tie (2) offers tons of value at 15-1 on the ML. We haven’t seen him since last summer, but trainer Ralph Nicks can get them ready to roll. Go deep!

Race 9: The Sand Springs – 1 mile on turf for F-M 4yo and up 5-12-7-2

The winner of the Juvenile F-M Turf in 2018, Newspaperofrecord (5) draws favoritism whenever she makes it to the track. She shows a long work tab for Chad Brown, and there’s no reason to think she isn’t ready. Valedictorian(12) a is drawn to the far outside, and her last effort was poor. Her race record in 2019 was very solid, and if she can get back to her past form she could surprise. Getmotherarose (7) won the G3 Honey Fox last out. A repeat of that effort would put her right there. Zofelle’s (2) win streak stopped at three last out, but a rebound to previous form puts her in the hunt.

Race 10: The Orchid (G3) – 1-3/8 miles on turf for F-M 4yo and up 12-6-5-8

Elizabeth Way (12) will have to overcome the far outside post position to continue her winning ways. Paco Lopez is good at working out trips for these types. Mean Mary (6) got away with soft fractions when going gate-to-wire last out, and a repeat is possible but not guaranteed. It would be an upset for her to miss the exacta. Gentle Ruler (5) fits the class and distance of this race, so if she’s fit off the bench she will be in the mix at the end. Beau Belle (8) is in the same situation as Gentle Ruler.

Race 11: Gulfstream Park Oaks (G3) – 1-1/16 miles for F-M 3yo 9-5-7-6

No trainer has had a better meet at Gulfstream this winter than Sofie Joseph. A win in the GP Oaks by Tonalist’s Shape (9) would be the topper. To date, she is undefeated. Spice Is Nice (5) was runner-up to Tonalist’s List in the Davona Dale, and she looks to be second best here again. Lucrezia (7) win the Suncoast Stakes in early February. If she can transfer her Tampa Bay for to Gulfstream she is a bigtime player. Swiss Skydiver (6) ships in from Fair Grounds for Ken McPeek. She should be running late.

Race 12: Pan American (G2) – 1-1/2 miles on turf for 4yo and up 9-2-10-1

Zulu Alpha (9) has picked up this year where he left off in 2019. He looks much the best, and his 3-5 odds are no surprise. Bemma’s Boy (2) is a stablemate of Zulu Alpha. This is a class test for him, and he may be worth a shot in the exacta. Focus Group (10) and Channel Cat (1) are the others in this race that fit the class standard set for the race by Zulu Alpha. Both are good horses, and if something goes haywire in the race one of them is the likely winner.

Race 13: Appleton (G3) – 1 mile on turf for 4yo and up 1-10-3-4

For those playing the Pick 4-5-6, this is the race in which you better get deep. There are numerous ways to play the race, so here is one guy’s advice on one way to do it. English Bee (1) closed very fast when getting second in the G3 Canadian Turf. The inside draw and a little racing luck could produce a better outcome this time. Sombeyay (10) was the winner of that race, and he has been within a head of winning three in a row. It won’t be a surprise to see a repeat. March to the Arch (3) just missed in the G3 Tampa Bay last month, and he won the Sunshine Million Turf on this oval in January. Ballagh Rocks (4) loves the Gulfstream lawn.

Race 14: Florida Derby (G1) – 1-1/8 miles for 3yo 7-9-5-12

Tiz the Law (7) is the 6-5 ML favorite in the Florida Derby. He deserves to be. He’s posted the magic 100 Beyer figure, he’s won a G3 and a G1, and his pedigree is rock solid. I cannot make a case against him. Independence Hall (9) is by the same sire (Constitution) as Tiz the Law. He owns three wins in four lifetime races, the same as Tiz the Law. At 9-2, he offers great value. Gouverneur Morris (5) is a bit of a buzz horse in that his support outpaces his accomplishments. I’m on the bandwagon, and he, too, is sired by Constitution. Ete Indien (12) is truly fast and good. He’s the most likely one in this field to beat Tiz the Law.