Arkansas Derby Day Late Pick – 5

Late Pick 5 on Arkansas Derby Day
Bob Hill, TSV writer —-

The late Pick 5 on Saturday at Oaklawn Park includes the G3 Count Fleet and the G1 Arkansas Derby. Even with the presence of some terrific horses in these races this Pick 5 is still tough to handicap
and could produce a nice payout unless the non-graded stakes legs of the sequence are won by short-odds entries. That outcome would surprise me.

Leg 1: Race 9 – Oaklawn Mile – 1 mile for 4yos and up

This listed stakes race comes up to the competition level of at least a G2. By My Standards (6) is a multiple G2 winner. Racing for the first time this year this Calhoun-trained 5yo has fired off the layoff before, and his work tab is strong. My only reservation about By My Standards is that he may want more distance to be his best. Rushie (4) is a G2 winner at the distance. Red hot jockey Joel Rosario is aboard in what will be his first contest of 2021. Wells Bayou (3) won the G2 Louisiana Derby as a 3yo for top trainer Brad Cox who enlists his go-to guy Florent Geroux to ride this son of Lookin at Lucky. He will be on or near the pace. I cannot quite figure out the presence of The Sound (9) who also is trained by Cox and whose running style is similar to that of Wells Bayou. I’m going to play all four on my ticket, leaving Blackberry Wine (5) for another day. He likes to run near the lead but is not as fast as either of Cox’s entries.

Leg 2: Race 10 – 6 furlongs

This OC 75K/N1X contest is the first run against winners for 2-1 ML favorite Mighty Mischief (7). He was a gate-to-wire winner in his maiden breaking effort on this track last month. The Asmussen-Santana duo is winning one in four races at this meet. Name Rejected (1)is another making his first start against winners. His speed figures and race results indicate he can compete in this company. Game Day Play (2) is a little light in Beyer figure comparison with some others in this field, but his late closing style makes him dangerous if the others knock heads a little too hard. Upstriker (5) is the wild card and potential value in this field for trainer Ron Moquett who knows a thing or two about good sprinters. His 2yo campaign was a story of regression as his best race was his first, and then he went backwards in very tough company until going on the shelf in November. He finished behind four horses that are still on the Kentucky Derby trail, and if he runs back to his debut race he could spring a surprise. The work tab is solid.

Leg 3: Race 11 – Count Fleet G3 – 6 furlongs

Here’s the next edition of the Whitmore/C Z Rocket dual that started in the BC Sprint last fall and was on display last month on this track. Both Whitmore (2) and C Z Rocket (6) will be running late.
Two days prior to the aforementioned duel between the favorites, Strike Power (4) ran faster than either of the famed pair on this same track at this distance in a gate-to-wire romp. A repeat could spell trouble for the others. No Parole (1) is a G1 winner for Tom Amoss also possessing blazing early speed. Amoss has not had a great meet at Oaklawn this spring, but leaving this Louisiana-bred off the ticket would be a tough call.

Leg 4: Race 12 – Arkansas Derby G1 – 1-1/8 miles

I’m willing to single Concert Tour (5). It’s Baffert in the Arkansas Derby. Nuff said.

Leg 5: Race 13 – MSW – 1-1/16 miles

Finishing the racing day with a maiden race is a page right out of the Saratoga summer meet. A card full of question marks is typical. I’m going six deep in this race and still leaving off horses that I fear could beat me. Continental Coins (1) has run evenly in two 6f furlong sprints and should benefit from the stretch out to two turns. Reserve (3) is the son of Tiznow, notoriously slow in developing. His sprint efforts were similar fade jobs. Ardanwood (4) is the tepid ML favorite at odds of 7-2. He finished second last out in an 8f affair during which he made two bids to catch the leader before falling back. Nomadic Fighter (7) makes his second start for Asmussen and gets top jock Santana aboard this time. He got bounced around on the break is one previous try. Saqeel (8) is a Shadwell homebred that made up ground late in his try at this distance last month. He gets a jockey upgrade to Geroux. Hype Man (10) is the other Asmussen entry who competed in his first try before fading on a muddy track just two weeks ago. Trainer-jockey combo hits at 35% rate.

Leg 1: 3,4,6,9
Leg 2: 1,2,5,7
Leg 3: 2,4,6
Leg 4: 5
Leg 5: 1,3,4,7,8,10

$144

Note: If you like No Parole (1) in Leg 3 you can add him for $48
more, or you could swap him out for Strike Power (4).