Correll’s Corner: Derby 148 comes down to Epicenter, Taiba
Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview —-
I’ll start out by taking a quick look at each of the 20 runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby on May 7. After that I’ll give my handicapping thoughts on the race.
Here are the colts in post position from the rail out:
Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) (10-1) won the Wood Memorial and this guy will be far back and coming late. Distance and the rail will not be a problem.
Happy Jack (Oxbow) (30-1) was third in the Santa Anita Derby and he is another closer.
Epicenter (Not this Time) (7-2) won the Louisiana Derby with the highest Beyer speed figure (102) for a 3-year-old in a route race this year. The Louisiana Derby was a mile-and-three-sixteenth race and he set a track record in winning. He and Crown Pride have run the longest of any of these colts.
Summer is Tomorrow (Summer Front) (30-1) was on the lead in the UAE Derby and he held for second. I thought it was a slow race.
Smile Happy (Run Happy) (20-1) has run second in his last two races, including the Blue Grass. Maybe he hasn’t grown as a 3-year-old. He should be mid-pack going up the backstretch.
Messier (Empire Maker) (8-1) was rundown in the Santa Anita Derby by his stablemate Taiba. He hadn’t raced in two months, so that may have had something to do with it. People like the way he is training at Churchill Downs. He doesn’t need the lead but should be near the pace.
Crown Pride (Reach the Crown) (20-1) won the UAE Derby, but beyond that I don’t have a clue.
Charge It (Tapit) (20-1) was coming late in the Florida Derby but ran out of ground. He hit the gate at the start of the race and he’ll get another eighth of a mile in the Derby. He’ll be pressing the pace.
Tiz the Bomb (Hit it a Bomb) (30-1) won the Jeff Ruby at Turfway on synthetic, but those types run well at Churchill). I don’t think he’s an Animal Kingdom.
Zandon (Upstart) (3-1) won the Blue Grass after somewhat of a tough trip. He got out late to run down highly regarded Smile Happy. He’ll be coming late.
Pioneer of Medina (Pioneerof the Nile) (30-1) was third in the Louisiana Derby and will be trying to press the pace.
Taiba (Gun Runner) (12-1) upset the apple cart in the Santa Anita Derby when he beat both Forbidden Kingdom and Messier. The Santa Anita Derby was only his second lifetime start and he got a 102 Beyer for his effort. Taiba is owned by the same group that campaigned last year’s Derby winner, the ill-fated Medina Spirit. If he wins the Derby he will be the only colt since Leonatus in 1883 to accomplish that feat off two races.
Simplification (Not this Time) (20-1) was third in the Florida Derby after winning the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth. He’s good for underneath bets.
Barber Road (Race Day) (30-1) was running late in Arkansas and could in the superfecta.
White Abarrio (Race Day) (10-1) won the Florida Derby with a 96 Beyer and will be sitting off the speed. You could do worse looking for a shot.
Cyberknife (Gun Runner) (20-1) won the Arkansas Derby after a pace meltdown. He’ll take a lot of money because he’s trained by home-boy Brad Cox.
Classic Causeway (Giants Causeway) (30-1) won the Tampa Bay Derby but bombed in the Florida Derby. He’ll want to be on the pace but I don’t think he’s fast enough unless he’s given the lead. He’ll be done by the three-eighths pole.
Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile) (30-1) won the Lexington, but I think he’s a fake dirt horse.
Zozos (Munnings)(30-1) was second to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby but was no match for the winner. He will be near the pace. Good luck.
Ethereal Road (Quality Road) (30-1) gets trainer D. Wayne Lukas in the Derby for the umpteenth time. This colt will waste a lot of money.
The two also-eligibles are Rich Strike and Rattle n Roll, and if they get in the Derby, it’s up to you to figure them out.
To begin with, if you’re playing this race as part of a pick 4, 5 or 6, you must go at least six horses deep. Those colts in my opinion are: Mo Donegal, Epicenter, Messier, Zandon, Tabia and White Abarrio (you can go deeper if you have a huge wallet). Of course when picking a Derby winner you don’t get six shots, so I’ll narrow it down to my choice.
Mo Donegal was the king of New York, but I’ve never been a big fan of winter racing in Gotham City and for one reason or another (injuries included) the Wood hasn’t been that productive for the Derby.
Epicenter has done nothing wrong this year and has had the best Beyer and the fastest time for his final prep. I also think it’s time for Steve Asmussen to win a Derby.
Messier is one of my revenge horses and if you know anything about last year’s Derby, you know what I’m talking about. He’s never been worse than second and he may not have been cranked for the Santa Anita Derby.
Zandon has become everybody’s favorite after winning the Blue Grass at Keeneland but he’s lost to both Mo Donegal and Epicenter.
Taiba is the other revenge horse and he’s owned by the same connections as last year’s “winner.” This being only his third race is the worry. He’s got speed early and late and that is where he is dangerous. His sire, Gun Runner, was a fighter and so is he.
White Abarrio is just a cool horse and if anyone is looking for a shot, even at 10-1, you’ll make a little money.
My head says Epicenter, but my heart is with Taiba.
Good luck.